2050年世界城市“天氣預報”：倫敦夏天平均氣溫27度

一項“樂觀”的研究指出，如果世界各國採取措施減少碳排放，在2050年前把氣溫增幅控制在2攝氏度以內，那麼到時候各大城市的氣溫仍會顯著上升，部分城市將遭遇劇烈的氣候變化影響。具體詳情請看2050年的“天氣預報”。

London could feel as hot as Barcelona by 2050, with Edinburgh's climate more like Paris, Leeds feeling like Melbourne and Cardiff like Montevideo.

2050年倫敦將和巴塞羅那一樣熱，愛丁堡的氣候更接近巴黎，利茲氣溫和墨爾本趨同，加的夫則與蒙得維的亞（烏拉圭首都）類似。

That's from a study looking at how a 2C temperature increase could change the world's 520 major cities.

一項研究預測了全球氣溫升高2度對世界520個大城市的影響。以上結果就來自這項研究。

And that's not as good as it might sound.

結果比聽上去還要糟。

More than a fifth, including Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, will experience conditions big cities haven't seen before, the Crowther Lab says.

克勞瑟實驗室稱，超五分之一的城市，包括新加坡和吉隆坡，將面臨大城市前所未見的氣候變化。

London could suffer from the type of extreme drought that hit Barcelona in 2008 - when it was forced to import drinking water from France at a cost of £20 million.

倫敦將經歷2008年巴塞羅那遭遇的極度乾旱，當時巴塞羅那被迫耗資2000萬英鎊（1.7億元人民幣）從法國進口飲用水。

The 2C rise by 2050 is comparing the present day to what temperatures were in the "pre-industrial period" - usually considered to be between the years 1850 and 1900 - when fossil-fuel burning hadn't yet changed the climate.

到2050年上升2攝氏度是同前工業時代的氣溫作對比。通常認爲1850年到1900年是前工業時代，那時候化石燃料的使用尚未改變氣候。

fossil-fuel: 化石燃料

That temperature increase would result in the average UK temperature during summer's hottest month increasing by about six degrees to 27C.

氣溫升高會導致英國夏日最熱月份的平均氣溫升高6攝氏度，達到27攝氏度。

Scientists hope pairing up cities will help people visualise the impact climate change could have within their own lifetimes.

科學家希望通過城市間的對比可以幫助人們想象到氣候變化在自己有生之年產生的影響。

"History has repeatedly shown us that data and facts alone do not inspire humans to change their beliefs or act," lead author Jean-Francois Bastin said.

首席作者讓-弗朗索瓦·巴斯坦說：“歷史反覆地表明，僅靠數據和事實不能推動人們改變自己的觀念或行動。”

The study, published in the journal PLOS One, suggests summers and winters in Europe will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5C and 4.7C respectively.

這項發表在《科學公共圖書館·綜合》期刊上的研究顯示，歐洲的夏天和冬天會變得更熱，平均氣溫將分別升高3.5攝氏度和4.7攝氏度。

It's the equivalent to a city shifting 620 miles (1,000km) further south - with those furthest away from the equator being most affected.

這相當於一個城市南移620英里（1000千米），離赤道越遠的城市受影響越大。

Governments around the world have pledged to limit rising temperatures to 1.5C by 2050.

世界各地的政府都已承諾要在2050年前把氣溫增幅控制在1.5攝氏度以內。

The global temperature has already increased by 1C above pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says.

聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會稱，全球氣溫已經比前工業時代的水平上升了1攝氏度。

And at the current rate of warming - 0.2C per decade - global warming will reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052.

按照現在的全球變暖速度——每十年升高0.2攝氏度——氣溫增幅將在2030年和2052年間達到1.5攝氏度。

The UN body has warned that exceeding 1.5C warming will push us into "a highly uncertain world" - adding that "the current global commitments are not sufficient to prevent temperature rise above 2C, let alone 1.5C".

委員會警告說，氣溫增幅超過1.5攝氏度會將我們推向一個“高度不穩定的世界”，並補充說“現有的全球承諾不足以防止氣溫增幅超過2攝氏度，更別說1.5攝氏度”。

It estimates that under current national commitments, average temperature increases will range from 2.9C to 3.4C by 2100.

據估計，依照現有的國家承諾，全球平均氣溫增幅將在2100年前達到2.9攝氏度至3.4攝氏度。

To keep us below 1.5C, the panel says carbon emissions need to be cut by 45% by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050.

爲了把氣溫增幅控制在1.5攝氏度以內，委員會表示碳排放需要在2030年前減少45%，並在2050年前實現零排放。

So this study's projections are actually quite optimistic, imagining a future where action has been taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

因此這項研究的預測結果其實相當樂觀，因爲它想象的未來已經採取措施來減少溫室氣體排放。

The report predicts that three quarters of the world's major cities will experience dramatic climate shifts under those conditions.

報告預測，在這些條件下，四分之三的世界主要城市將經歷劇烈的氣候變化。