逃離城市陷阱是對是錯

As more and more young Chinese complete their exodus from major metropolises to less polluted small towns, their counterparts in the US are increasingly finding themselves stuck in big cities.

在中國，越來越多的年輕人逃離大城市，移居環境較好的小城鎮；與此同時，在美國，卻有越來越多的年輕人發現自己被困在了大城市。

For decades, young people in the US flocked to New York, Los Angeles and Chicago to build their careers before taking their earnings into the suburbs to raise families. That pattern appears to be fading now, as more young workers are staying put, a Wall Street Journal story reported recently.

過去的幾十年間，美國的年輕人蜂擁至紐約、洛杉磯和芝加哥立業，然後帶着積蓄到城郊安家落户。而據《華爾街日報》報道，現在這種模式已經沒落，更多的年輕人仍留在城裏。

According to an analysis of census data by the Brookings Institution and The Wall Street Journal, from 2004 to 2007, before the recession, an average of about 50,000 adults aged 25 to 34 left both the New York and Los Angeles metro areas annually.

據布魯金斯學會與《華爾街日報》的人口普查分析顯示，自2004年至2007年，也就是經濟衰退之前，每年平均約5萬年齡在25-34歲之間的年輕人離開紐約、洛杉磯等大城市。

The recession diminished this flow. Fewer than 23,000 young adults left New York annually between 2010 and 2013. Only about 12,000 left Los Angeles — a drop of nearly 80 percent from before the recession. Chicago’s departures dropped about 60 percent.

隨着經濟衰退，這一數字也開始下降。2010年至2013年間，每年離開紐約的年輕人只有不到2.3萬。而離開洛杉磯的人數相較衰退前則幾乎縮水了80%，只有1.2萬人。離開芝加哥的人數則下降了60%左右。

Big cities offer many of the highest-paying jobs for a generation that was starting or just settling into their careers when the recession hit, an Atlantic article pointed out.

《大西洋月刊》報道指出，經濟衰退來臨時，大城市為事業剛剛起步的年輕人提供了很多高薪的就業機會。

But after young people have lived in a big city for a few years, they find it increasingly difficult to get an economic foothold that would allow them to leave.

但是，當這些年輕人在大城市生活幾年之後，他們就會發現自己很難擁有離開大城市的經濟基礎。

Negative implications

消極的後果

Median earnings for full-time US workers aged 18 to 34 have fallen nearly 10 percent since 2000, after adjusting for inflation, to below 1980s levels, according to The Wall Street Journal. This drop means young people, many of whom are also shouldering big student loan debt, have had a hard time saving money and building the good credit needed to secure a mortgage and buy a house elsewhere.

根據《華爾街日報》的報道，自2000年以來，美國18至34歲全職者收入中值下降了近10%，調整通貨膨脹率之後，這一數字還不及1980年代的水平。他們中的很多人還身負鉅額助學貸款。這意味着他們將很難有所積蓄、或是擁有良好的信用來獲得抵押貸款、在別處買房安家。

The mobility of young workers has been a tremendous asset to the US economy, according to The Atlantic article. In previous decades, cities like New York and Los Angeles attracted 20-somethings with educational or professional opportunities, and then those 20-somethings would migrate to places where they could settle down with a family and buy a spacious house after a few years in the city. This geographic dispersal of highly-skilled workers meant that the gains of states with stronger economies could be spread to those with weaker ones.

如《大西洋月刊》在一篇文章中所寫，美國年輕勞動力的流動性一直是美國經濟的巨大財產。在過去的幾十年間，很多二十來歲的年輕人都去往紐約、洛杉磯等大城市，以獲得優越的教育和工作機會，並在工作幾年之後移居他處，置豪宅成家安居。而這樣高技術人口的遷移，也讓財富從經濟較好的州流向經濟貧弱的地區。

But on the other hand, this new trend might have negative implications for the economy, according to The Wall Street Journal story. Roughly 1 in 7 young adults lives in the US’ three biggest metropolises, which have massive populations compared with most US cities. If younger people move less, some could get stuck in jobs that aren’t good matches for them, reducing the economy’s productivity. That could make the labor force less flexible and less able to compete internationally in an era of rapid technological change and globalization, according to The Wall Street Journal story.

《華爾街日報》報道稱，現在（年輕人不再遷移）的趨勢或將對美國經濟帶來消極影響。在美國，每七個年輕人中就有一人身處美國最大的三座城市之一，而這些城市的人口規模已經遠遠超出了美國其他城市。如果這些年輕人安於現狀，那麼他們中的一些人將會從事不那麼適合自己的工作，從而降低整體經濟生產力。這不僅會降低勞動力的彈性，甚至會使其在這個科技快速變化與經濟全球化的年代失去國際競爭力。