德國和英國或成為ISIS下一個目標
The brutal killings in Paris come on top of the downing of a Russian airliner in Sinai, the bombing of a Hizbollah stronghold in Beirut and an attack against Kurds in Ankara. Some 500 have been killed in the past few weeks, and many more injured. Isis has claimed the first three, and is suspected of the fourth.
就在巴黎發生殘忍殺戮事件之前，一架俄羅斯客機墜毀在西奈半島，貝魯特的黎巴嫩真主黨大本營發生了爆炸，安卡拉則發生了針對庫爾德人的襲擊。過去幾周內，已有約500人在這些事件中喪生，更多人在事件中受傷。“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)聲稱對前三起事件負責，而對於第四起，它也負有嫌疑。
So how should we understand the strategy of the Islamist militants? Do they want to draw foreigners in further or frighten them away? I am not sure that is how they are thinking.
那麼，對於這些伊斯蘭激進分子的戰略，我們應該如何理解？他們是希望進一步吸引外國人，還是令他們懼而遠之？我無法確定這是否正是他們的想法。
What Isis wants is continuing turmoil in Syria, and in Iraq too, so that it can control territory and resources to build up its “caliphate”. It is not seeking to overthrow Bashar al-Assad — the Syrian president is useful as a target of Sunni anger, and there has been tacit co-operation between Isis and the regime. They avoid direct conflict, trade in oil and both target the more moderate militias.
ISIS想要的，是敍利亞和伊拉克的亂局持續下去，這樣它就可以控制大片土地和資源以建設其“哈里發”。ISIS並未尋求推翻巴沙爾阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)，這位敍利亞總統是吸引遜尼派(Sunni)怒火的有用靶子，而ISIS和該政權之間也一直存在心照不宣的合作。兩者之間會避免發生直接衝突，開展石油交易，並且都把更温和的武裝人員當做目標。
Isis wants the horrors of war and terrorism as a recruiting sergeant. The best option for them is a conflict that can be presented as Muslims against infidels, whether American, Russian or European. A conflict pitching Sunni against Shia also helps: they want Sunnis in the Middle East and beyond to see them as their standard bearer. In their mindset, the Paris attacks are a show of power. They keep the pot boiling and will draw more Muslims in Europe to their cause.
ISIS希望用戰爭的可怕和恐怖主義充當遴選新人的軍官。對他們來説，最好的選擇是造成這樣一場衝突：它能被描繪為穆斯林和不信教人士（不論是美國人、俄羅斯人還是歐洲人）之間的對戰。而引起遜尼派與什葉派(Shia)爭鬥的衝突對他們也會很有幫助：他們希望中東及其他地區的遜尼派將他們視為標杆。在他們的頭腦裏，巴黎的襲擊是一次力量的展示。他們要確保局面始終混亂，並將吸引歐洲更多穆斯林走上他們的軌道。
Two things Isis does not want. First is a full-blown ground intervention by Nato or Russia as this would quickly cost the militants their base in eastern Syria and western Iraq. The group will calculate, probably rightly, that — in the wake of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — there is no appetite for that in western capitals or Moscow. French President Hollande’s talk of war is unlikely to result in Nato’s article five commitment to collective defence being triggered in any meaningful way.
有兩件事是ISIS不希望看到的。首先是北約(Nato)或俄羅斯的全面地面干預，因為這會很快導致這羣激進分子喪失在敍利亞東部和伊拉克西部的基地。該組織會打如下算盤（很可能他們是對的）：西方各國政府或俄羅斯政府在伊拉克戰爭和阿富汗戰爭之後，沒有進行全面地面干預的興趣。法國總統弗朗索瓦攠朗德( Hollande)有關戰爭的講話，不太可能以任何有實際意義的方式觸發北約有關集體防禦義務的第五條款。
Second is a peace deal bringing a new government to Syria. If there were a settlement accommodating Syrian Sunnis — a big if, given that it would require Mr Assad’s departure — Isis would lose its appeal. That should reinforce the resolve of foreign ministers from the US, Russia, Europe and the Middle East who met in Vienna on Saturday to seek a political solution to the Syrian war.
ISIS不希望看到的第二件事，則是達成能讓敍利亞建立新政府的和平協議。如果存在包容敍利亞遜尼派的和平協議（考慮到這以阿薩德下台為必要條件，這是個十分大膽的假定），ISIS就會失去吸引力。這一點應該會加大美國、俄羅斯、歐洲及中東各國外長的決心，他們於上週六在維也納會晤，以尋求敍利亞戰爭的政治解決方案。
Diplomacy will always reflect what is happening on the ground. Russia’s military intervention in Syria, targeting anti-regime forces, has strengthened the negotiating hand of the Kremlin and its ally, the Assad regime. If the west wants to shape the outcome, its military role will have to be less tentative than the current limited strikes against Isis and arms supplies to the less extreme anti-Assad militias.
外交始終是地面軍事態勢的反映。俄羅斯對敍利亞以反政府武裝為目標的軍事幹預，為克里姆林宮及其盟友阿薩德政權增加了談判的籌碼。如果西方希望改變這一結果，它們就必須提升在軍事上發揮的作用，不要像現在那麼試探性。目前，它們的行動還只限於對ISIS十分有限的打擊，以及向不那麼極端的反阿薩德武裝人員提供武器。
Why did Isis attack France? Well, Paris has been at the forefront of opposition to Islamist extremists in the Sahel and in Syria. The French Muslim community is not well integrated — and, being mainly of north African origin, feels more involved in the conflicts in the Arab world than the south Asians in Britain or Turks in Germany, which has made them more susceptible to Isis rhetoric.
ISIS為何要襲擊法國？在薩赫勒地區（Sahel，非洲撒哈拉沙漠和蘇丹草原地區之間一條橫跨多個國家的地帶——譯者注）和敍利亞，法國一直站在對抗伊斯蘭極端分子的最前沿。法國的穆斯林羣體沒有很好地融入社會——由於法國的穆斯林主要是北非裔，比起英國的南亞裔穆斯林或者德國的土耳其裔穆斯林，這些人在情感上更關注阿拉伯世界的爭端，這使他們更容易受到ISIS的宣傳的影響。
Some ask if there was a failure of intelligence that could have prevented the atrocity. We do not yet know. It was a complex, well planned attack by skilled operatives. Of course, some were known to the French security services — it would be much more alarming if they were all “clean skins”. We need to know how they planned, how they communicated, where they trained and what traces they left ahead of Friday.
一些人問，情報工作是否失敗，否則我們本可能阻止這場暴行。這一點我們還不知道。這是一次複雜、精心策劃、由訓練有素的行動人員進行的襲擊。當然，法國的安保部門知道其中一些人的存在——如果他們全都“背景乾淨”，此事就駭人得多了。我們需要了解，他們是如何策劃、溝通的，他們在哪裏接受訓練，在週五事件發生前又留下了什麼痕跡。
French security services will have been working on these questions all weekend, supported by counterparts across Europe. They are battling to get on top of the escalating threat at home. DGSI, the internal service, is having to shift from its police methods to an intelligence-led approach to get on top of the modern threat. DGSE, the external service, is geared more to pursuing French interests abroad than supporting security at home. French intercept capabilities come under the external service and are not as easily directed against terrorists in France. Countering terrorism tight co-ordination of agent penetration, intercepts and bulk data analysis. Teamwork is vital. In the UK we developed it only after the 2005 London bombings. Reform of the French services, already being driven by Manuel Valls, the impressively tough prime minister, is certain to be accelerated.
法國的安保部門在歐洲各國安保部門的協助下，整個週末都在研究這些問題。他們正在奮力控制國內不斷升級的威脅。負責國內安全事務的法國國內安全總局(DGSI)，現在必須將警察式的手段轉換成以情報為主導的策略，以控制現代威脅。負責外部安全事務的法國對外安全總局(DGSE)比起支持國內的安全工作，更多追求法國在國外的利益。法國的情報截查能力設在外部安全部門下，因此沒那麼容易以法國國內的恐怖分子為目標。反恐需要特工滲透、信息截查和批量數據分析的緊密協作。團隊合作十分關鍵。在英國，我們在2005年的倫敦爆炸案之後才發展出這樣的機制。風格極其強硬的法國總理曼紐爾瓦爾斯(Manuel Valls)已經開始推動法國安保部門的改革，現在這項改革勢必提速。
The next attack probably will not be in France. Isis wants to provoke division across Europe — in particular, hostility to the refugees flooding in. It wants the far right to grow in strength, further alienating European Muslims. Germany might be vulnerable as Isis would see an attack as weakening Chancellor Angela Merkel and dividing opinion. It could just as easily be in London: according to Andrew Parker, head of MI5, the UK domestic security agency, six terror attacks have been foiled in the UK this year already — though none, I suspect, as extensive as what we saw in Paris.
下一次襲擊很可能不會在法國發生。ISIS希望在全歐洲製造分歧——尤其是，對湧入歐洲的難民的敵意。ISIS希望極右翼勢力提升實力，使歐洲的穆斯林進一步遭到疏遠。德國可能是一個容易受到攻擊的目標，因為ISIS會將襲擊德國視為削弱德國總理安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)和製造觀點分歧的手段。襲擊同樣很有可能發生在倫敦，根據英國國內安全機構軍情五處(MI5)處長安德魯帕克(Andrew Parker)的説法，今年英國已經阻止了6次恐怖襲擊，儘管我懷疑其中沒有哪一起能比得上巴黎暴恐案的規模。
Political calculation and available operatives will determine where Isis tries to strike next. There is little doubt that there will be further attacks. This will challenge not just our intelligence agencies. The wars in Europe’s neighbourhood are now washing on to our shores and governments in Europe — especially France, Germany and Britain — will have to lead the response. We cannot expect the US to ride to our rescue.
政治盤算和可用的行動人員將決定ISIS下一次會在哪裏試圖發動襲擊。無疑，我們會看到更多的襲擊。這挑戰的不僅僅是我們的情報機構。在歐洲鄰近地區發生的戰爭已經蔓延到了我們的邊緣，歐洲各國——尤其是法國、德國和英國——政府必須領導起應對行動。我們不能指望美國前來救援。
