FT社評 美聯儲考慮修改通脹目標
This week’s news that US core inflation came in lower than expected in July has increased the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the rest of this year. True, there may be some boost in the form of inflation emanating from China, where producer prices have recently shown strength. But the Fed and other central banks face a structural predicament from which they will not escape via an increase in import prices.
這周傳出的7月份美國核心通脹率低於預期的新聞，增加了美聯儲(Fed)在今年餘下時間裏保持利率不變的可能性。沒錯，源自中國的通脹也許會帶來某種程度的提振——中國的生產者價格最近呈現出走強態勢。但是，美聯儲和其他央行面臨的結構性困境，是無法藉助進口價格上漲逃脱的。
An apparent slow drift down in the natural rate of interest and trend growth across nations means a lower long-term level of policy rates, less room to cut during recessions and the need to resort to extraordinary and possibly distorting measures such as quantitative easing.
自然利率和各國趨勢增長率似乎都在緩慢下滑，這意味着較低的長期政策利率水平、衰退期間更小的利率下調空間以及採取非常規且可能造成扭曲的措施（如量化寬鬆）的必要性。
John Williams, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, this week posited a solution: that the Fed might increase its inflation target, allowing the economy to run faster than otherwise and pushing interest rates higher. This would allow bigger cuts in rates during recessions.
舊金山聯邦儲備銀行(San Francisco Fed)行長約翰•威廉斯(John Williams)本週設想了一種解決方案：美聯儲或許可以提高通脹目標，讓經濟得以增長得更快一些並推高利率。這樣就會為衰退期間留下更大的利率下調空間。
Yet as a practical matter, it is hard to argue in the current conjuncture that the Fed is chafing against the constraints of its policy framework. The central bank has leeway it is choosing not to use. The 2 per cent inflation target did not force the Fed’s open market committee to raise interest rates in December last year for the first time since 2006. The increase was a purely unforced error, as would be another rate increase in the near future.
不過事實上，當前局面下很難説美聯儲已經觸及其政策框架的極限。美聯儲還有政策餘地，只是它選擇不去動用而已。去年12月，美聯儲公開市場委員會(FOMC)自2006年以來首次加息，這一舉動並不是迫於2%的通脹目標才做出的。那次加息純粹是個在非被迫情況下發生的錯誤，假如美聯儲近期內再次加息，將重複這一錯誤。
The Fed’s main problem at the moment is not its framework, but overestimating inflationary pressure and underestimating the cost of yet more undershooting of its target. Raising the target is likely only to mean that the central bank misses it by more and thereby leaches credibility.
當前美聯儲的主要問題不是它的政策框架，而是高估通脹壓力，低估與通脹目標差距擴大的代價。提高通脹目標可能僅僅意味着該行會在更大程度上低於這一目標，從而損失可信度。
If the Fed is to adjust its goal, it would make more sense to adopt another of Mr Williams’ suggestions and target a price level rather than an inflation rate, aiming to follow a period of inflation running below target by spending an equivalent time above it. That would encourage it to run the economy at a faster rate while avoiding a confusing change in the numerical target which, as Fed chair Janet Yellen said in a speech in September, would raise suspicions that the goalposts would be opportunistically moved again.
如果美聯儲要調整目標，那麼更合理的做法是採納威廉斯的另一條建議，盯住一個價格水平，而非通脹率，致力於讓通脹在低於目標一段時期之後，接着在同樣長的一段時期裏高於目標。這將促使美聯儲讓經濟在更高速率上運行，同時避免在目標數字上進行令人困惑的更改，就如美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)在去年9月的一次演講中所説的，這種更改會讓人懷疑，美聯儲未來會再次對目標做出帶有機會主義意味的更改。
In any case, policymakers should be concentrating on hitting the current target, not talking about changing it. Holding central bankers solely responsible for inflation is part of the problem. Stable positive inflation comes when demand is bumping up against the economy’s output capacity. If central banks are struggling to generate such demand without extraordinary and potentially distortionary actions, it is up to finance ministries to do their part by stimulative fiscal policy.
在任何情況下，政策制定者都應該集中精力達到當前的目標，而不是考慮改變目標。一部分問題在於，讓央行官員對通脹擔負全部責任。穩定的正通脹是在需求擴大到觸及經濟產出能力的時候出現的。如果央行難以在不採取可能造成扭曲的非常規手段的情況下產生這樣的需求，那麼財政部就該發揮自己的作用，推出刺激性財政政策。
Although there have been a few signs of fiscal policy turning stimulative in the large advanced economies, they are a long way from accepting the full role that taxing and spending should have in boosting demand.
儘管在大型發達經濟體，已經出現一些財政政策轉向刺激經濟的跡象，這些經濟體還遠沒有接受這種做法，即讓徵税和支出在提振需求中發揮應有的全部作用。
Formally sharing responsibility for hitting an inflation target between monetary and fiscal policymakers is going too far: it would merely encourage blame-shifting. But central bankers could certainly be more open about the need for boosts from more public spending or tax cuts, or both, to help address the issue of chronically underperforming growth and low inflation.
讓貨幣政策制定者和財政政策制定者正式地共擔達到通脹目標的責任就過頭了：這隻會鼓勵推卸責任。但央行銀行家完全可以更公開地指出，需要更多公共支出或（和）減税來提振經濟，以幫助解決長期增長低迷和低通脹的問題。
Mr Williams deserves credit for increasing the salience of the discussion about targets. Yet the immediate need is to use monetary and fiscal tools better within the existing framework, rather than to tinker with the workings of the system.
威廉斯讓關於目標的這場討論更受重視，這值得稱許。但目前的迫切需求是，在現存框架下更好地利用貨幣工具和財政工具，而不是胡亂修改系統的運行機制。
