下一個MVP黑馬會是誰?

時間的指針剛指向八月，2018-19賽季MVP爭奪戰卻已揭開序幕。博彩網站已為下一賽季的MVP熱門候選人開出盤口。剛和湖人簽約的詹姆斯一馬當先，濃眉哥、字母哥、大鬍子哈登及凱文杜蘭特緊隨其後。然而這些名字未免使人覺得缺乏新鮮感，假如MVP爭奪戰裏有第二梯隊，那下面這幾位肯定值得好好考慮考慮。

Kawhi Leonard

卡哇伊·萊昂納德

Leonard is better than DeRozan at everything, except he never got the chance to be a primary playmaker like DeRozan because the Spurs ran an equal-opportunity system with a plethora of ball handlers. In 2016-17, 30.9 percent of Leonard's offensive possessions were pick-and-rolls.

萊昂納德各方面都比德羅贊強，只是他從未有機會能像德羅贊那樣充當球隊主導者，因為馬刺隊進攻體系均衡且持球者眾多。16-17賽季，萊昂納德的進攻中擋拆比例達到30.9%。

By contrast, 52.8 percent of DeRozan's last season were pick-and-rolls, per Synergy. But over 12 games in the 2017 playoffs, Leonard's pick-and-roll usage increased to 40.6 percent of his plays. Leonard scored with tremendous efficiency, as you'd expect, and his passing was sharp.

與此形成鮮明對比的是，上賽季德羅贊擋拆佔比52.8%。但是2017年季後賽中，有超過12場的比賽，萊昂納德擋拆比例驟升至40.6%，隨之而來的是恐怖的得分效率。同時如你所料，他的傳球也很犀利。

Leonard sometimes unnecessarily picks up his dribble before passing, an old habit from his college years at San Diego State, but he's improved significantly at throwing darts off the dribble like in the video above on the pass to Danny Green, who was also traded to the Raptors.

萊昂納德傳球前時不時總會多運幾下球，這是他在聖迭格州讀大學時養成的老習慣，但是他在這個方面已經有了很大的進步，就像上面的視頻中傳給丹尼·格林的那個球一樣。格林也被交易到了猛龍隊。

We already know that, if healthy, Leonard will defend at an elite level and score with efficiency through a diversity of plays. The interesting variable is his playmaking. If Leonard is empowered to handle the rock and facilitate, it won't be long until he's the favorite to win MVP.

我們都知道，如果身體健康的話，倫納德的防守是精英水平，得分更是多樣化和高效率。有趣的變數是他的打法。如果萊納德被賦予權力可以靈活的持球進攻，那麼很快他就成為榮獲MVP最熱門的人選。

Devin Booker

德文·布克

If Booker keeps progressing, the 2018-19 season could be his breakout campaign. (And if the Suns didn't stink so much last season, he could've just had it.) Last season, Booker became only the 11th player to average over 24 points before turning 22 years old.

如果布克保持進步，那麼18-19賽季將是他爆發之季（如果不是太陽隊上個賽季那樣擺爛，他或許已經做到了）。上賽季，布克成為了NBA歷史上第11位在22歲前場均得分超過24分的球員。

LeBron James and Kevin Durant did it twice, and the five retired players who did it all made the Hall of Fame. It's a good sign for Booker. And now he's about to play with new teammates, with a new coach, and in a new system.

勒布朗詹姆斯和凱文杜蘭特實現過兩次，另外五位達成此成就的已退役球星均進入了名人堂。這對布克來講是個好兆頭。另外這個賽季他將和一些新隊友並肩作戰，此外還有新主帥以及全新的體系。

Booker was projected as a pure shooting guard in the Klay Thompson mold after his freshman season at Kentucky, but he's drastically improved his ball handling to become a more dynamic scorer.

在肯塔基州他的菜鳥賽季後，太陽隊將布克以克萊湯普森為模板打造成一個純得分後衞，但他卻大幅度提高他的控球能力以成為一個雙能衞。

He's crafty once he gets in the lane, utilizing floaters and off-balance layups; and if a shot isn't available, he's a willing, capable passer. Booker must get better at whipping cross-court passes and putting more velocity on the ball, but that'll come in time.

布克衝擊到油漆區會帶來很大威脅，他會利用拋投而且能在失去平衡的情況下上籃得手；當投籃受阻的時候，他能主動傳出一手好球。然而布克必須提高他長傳球的能力並且讓球速加快，這些都會很快成為現實的。

Victor Oladipo

維克多·奧拉迪波

It'd be just as much of a mistake to discount Oladipo getting better moving forward. He's only 26, and he just pushed LeBron and the Cavs to the brink in his his first taste of the playoffs as his team's alpha. Oladipo is obviously already quite good, but he can still get better as long as he doesn't become complacent after his immense success last season.

認為奧拉迪波會止步不前顯然是大錯特錯的。他才僅僅26歲，並且剛結束的賽季奧拉迪波已經將勒布朗跟他的騎士隊推到了淘汰邊緣，要知道這是他第一次作為核心領着球隊打進季後賽。奧拉迪波顯然是已經足夠優秀了，但只要他沒有對上賽季巨大的成功表現自滿，他依然可以越來越出色。

He put up good box-score numbers (he averaged 23.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.3 assists last season). He's an excellent defender. He was also one of the NBA's most efficient isolation scorers, and excelled in the pick-and-roll, on spot-ups, and off handoffs. And he was clutch.

他打出了亮眼的數據（上賽季場均23.1分，5.2個籃板，4.3個助攻）。他還是一名出色的防守者。他也是NBA現役中單打得分效率最高的球員之一，掩護走位，定點投籃和手遞手傳球都非常擅長。同時奧拉迪波也是一名大心臟球員。

The next step is shooting 3s at a higher volume while maintaining or increasing odds are Oladipo will always be a fairly inconsistent shooter. But he needs to take more of them.

接下來的一步就是在保持和提高命中率的基礎上增加三分出手。奧拉迪波可能都會是一個不太穩定的投手，但他需要增加出手。如果奧拉迪波場均出手7.7次三分球（和喬治一樣），並增加中距離投籃到場均5.1次，那麼一個賽季下來總得分將增加39分，場均得分將從23.1分上升至23.7分。

If he starts shooting 40 percent from 3 at this volume, his scoring would increase to 24.3. This is a lot of math, but it's only meant to illustrate how only a subtle tweak to his workload would lead to a noticeable bump in production.

如果他在同樣的三分出手數下將命中率提高到百分之四十，他的場均得分會增加到24.3分。這是一些數學問題，但這只是説明了對他的工作進行小小的調整就會導致結果明顯的變化。

Ben Simmons

本·西門斯

Simmons ranked near the top of the NBA in efficiency when factoring in the points scored off his passes, so this isn't meant as a slight. The man is already a beast. But he's not close to his ceiling as a potential Face of the NBA. Simmons is too predictable, as most young players are. In the post, he often turns to a right-handed hook shot even in situations when he should go left.

在助攻他人得分方面，西蒙斯的效率排名接近NBA的榜首，所以光這一點就不能小看他了，那人已經是一頭野獸。但作為NBA的一個潛在面孔，他並沒有接近自己的天花板。西蒙斯太容易被預測了，就像大多數年輕球員一樣。在地位的時候，即使在他應該向左走的情況下，他也經常轉到右手勾手投籃。

When driving the lane, he uses his right hand more than 80 percent of the time on layup attempts, which results in shot alterations rather than makes or drawn fouls by using a strong left hand. If Simmons develops his left hand on the inside, it'll make scoring easier.

當衝進罰球區時，他用右手上籃的次數超過80%，這會導致投籃的改變，而不是用強有力的左手去造犯規。如果西蒙斯能在內線發展他的左手技能，那得起分來就更容易了。

Simmons, with an already-chiseled 6-foot-10 physIQue, could be used more frequently as a screener on the roll, or pop for a shot, or catch and drive. He's a smart player without the ball, which he displays when cutting and crashing the boards.

西蒙斯有着6英尺10英寸高的身材，可以更頻繁地在擋拆中做掩護，或者突施冷箭，或者接球突破。他是一個聰明的無球跑動者，表現在他的切入籃下和衝搶籃板上。

The re-emergence of Markelle Fultz could help matters for Simmons, but Simmons's high-IQ game could still be better utilized from the perimeter if he becomes a threat from there. Once he is, Simmons has no limits.

馬克爾·富爾茨的復出可能對西蒙斯有所幫助，但如果西蒙斯能夠在中距離成為對手的威脅的話，他的高智商仍能在比賽中發揮更好的作用。一旦他做到了，西蒙斯就沒有限制了。

Donovan Mitchell

多諾萬·米切爾

Mitchell improved over the course of the season at scoring in the paint with one-foot finishes, and his 3-pointer has come a long way since college. He's also a far better passer than he gets credit for, which he displayed in the playoffs while point guard Ricky Rubio was sidelined. But there's always room for improvement, and the easiest way for Mitchell to see an uptick in his efficiency is by drawing more free throws.

米切爾一整個賽季都在提升自己在油漆區單腳投籃的能力，他的三分球從大學開始就有了長足的進步。他的傳球能力也比他得到的稱讚要好得多，他在季後賽中表現出色，而控球后衞裏基·盧比奧則被邊緣化。但是，總有提升的空間，而對於米切爾來説，看到他的效率上升最簡單的方法就是投更多的罰球。

Of the 205 players in NBA history to average at least 15 shots with a usage over 25, Mitchell ranked 163rd in free throw rate. That's fine for a rookie, and even some veterans. Curry doesn't draw a lot of fouls. But most transcendent scorers eat at the line.

在NBA歷史上，平均至少有15次投籃，且使用率超過25的205名球員中，米切爾在罰球命中率上排名第163位，對於一個新手，甚至是一些老兵來説，這都沒問題。庫裏沒有造到太多的犯規。但大多數超凡脱俗的射手都會在罰球線上砍分。

There's a correlation between free throw rate and true shooting percentage, which basically means there's a moderately positive relationship between drawing fouls and scoring efficiency. Mitchell didn't draw a lot of fouls over his two seasons at Louisville either, and more often than not, players' free throw rates don't change drastically during their pro careers.

罰球率和真實投籃命中率之間存在一定的相關性，這基本上意味着罰球犯規和得分效率之間存在一定的正相關關係。米切爾在路易斯維爾的兩個賽季也沒有造到很多犯規，而且很多時候，球員的罰球率在職業生涯中不會有很大的變化。

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