特朗普的貿易計劃:更多壁壘

President Trump’s advisers and allies are pushing an ambitious idea: Remake American trade.

特朗普總統的顧問和盟友在推動一個頗具野心的想法：重塑美國貿易。

They are considering sweeping aside decades of policy and rethinking how the United States looks at trade with every country. Essentially, after years of criticizing China and much of Europe for the way they handle imports and exports, these officials want to copy them.

他們在考慮將延續幾十年的政策棄之一旁，重新考慮美國如何看待與各個國家的貿易。在批評中國和歐洲許多國家處理進出口問題的方式多年之後，這些官員其實也想採用這些辦法。

This approach could result in higher barriers to imports that would end America’s decades-long status as the world’s most open large economy. This could lead to slightly higher prices in the United States for everything from Chilean grapes to iPhones to gasoline. But it could also provide a boost to companies and workers who make things in the United States and sell them abroad.

這一舉措可能導致更高的進口壁壘，令美國失去佔據了幾十年的世界上最開放大經濟體的地位。這也會導致美國所有商品的價格略微上漲，不管是智利葡萄、iPhone，還是石油，都不例外。但它也能給在美國生產、在海外銷售產品的企業和工人提供助力。

Will it happen? Mr. Trump has hinted at the issue, saying to Congress last week that “other countries make us pay very high tariffs and taxes,” but “we charge them almost nothing.” The discussion, if translated into action, could affect national economies and regular households alike — and create big problems for countries like China that depend heavily on exports to the United States.

這種情況會發生嗎？特朗普在這個問題上做出了暗示。他上週對國會表示，“其他國家向我們徵收高昂的關税和税收”，但“我們卻幾乎什麼也不向他們收”。這項討論如果轉化為行動，可能會同時影響到國民經濟和普通家庭——同時給中國等嚴重依賴對美出口的國家造成大麻煩。

Putting Up Barriers

設置障礙

First, it helps to understand how the United States and other countries currently treat trade.

首先，它有助於理解美國和其他國家目前如何對待貿易問題。

The most visible layer is tariffs, or taxes on imports. The World Trade Organization, the global trade adjudicator, has allowed developing countries to impose far higher tariffs than industrialized countries, while they build up industries at home. China has been counted as a developing country.

最可見的層面是關税，或説進口税。全球貿易的裁判——世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)允許發展中國家在國內發展自身產業的同時，徵收比工業化國家高得多的關税。中國一直被看作一個發展中國家。

But many countries have additional taxes. For example, China and other countries, but not the United States, also charge a steep value-added tax, which is a kind of national sales tax on imports and home-produced goods alike. Exports are exempt from value-added taxes.

但許多國家還有附加的税。比如，中國和其他國家——但不包括美國——也徵收過高的增值税，那是一種對進口產品和本國產品都徵收的全國性營業税。出口產品則免收增值税。

Once value-added taxes and sales taxes are included in an international comparison, America’s taxes on imports are much lower than those of almost every other country.

一旦將增值税和營業税納入一項國際比較，就會發現相比幾乎所有的其他國家，美國的進口税要低得多。

Rethinking Trade

重塑貿易

Mr. Trump’s advisers and some lawmakers don’t like this arrangement.

特朗普的顧問和一些議員不喜歡這樣的局面。

For starters, they question why China’s average tariffs are about three times as high as those in the United States — and its tariffs on manufactured goods, which involve a lot of jobs to produce them, are far higher still. Those levels are allowed because when China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it was clearly a developing country. Lower American trade barriers have helped China increase exports to the United States, while importing fairly little.

首先，他們質疑為何中國的平均關税是美國的三倍之多——它對需要很多勞動力參與的製造業產品徵收的關税也高得多。這樣的高税額是被允許的，因為在2001年加入世貿組織時，中國顯然是一個發展中國家。降低美國貿易壁壘促進了中國向美國的出口，但它從美國進口的產品卻非常之少。

Today, China’s designation as a developing country is more debatable. China is the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest producer of steel and cars.

如今，將中國認定為發展中國家變得更具有爭議性了。中國現在是世界第二大經濟體，也是最大的鋼鐵和汽車生產國。

Still, China trails most developed nations by some measures, and Chinese officials argue that it is still developing and does not yet qualify as industrialized.

但是按照一些標準衡量，中國仍然落後於發達國家。中國官員堅稱，它依然是發展中國家，還不夠資格被稱為工業化國家。

China’s economy is still roughly two-thirds the size of the American economy, even though China has four times as many people. Average incomes in China are still one-fifth to one-quarter of levels in the United States, and much of China’s interior is still underdeveloped.

儘管人口是美國的四倍，但中國的經濟規模依然只有美國的三分之二。中國平均收入只有美國平均收入的五分之一至四分之一，而且中國內地大多數地方依然處於不發達狀態。

“We still hold the developing countries’ standpoint,” said Li Gang, the deputy dean of the Commerce Ministry’s research unit, the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

“我們依然認為自己是發展中國家，”中國商務部下屬的研究機構國際貿易經濟合作研究院副院長李鋼説。

When China joined the W.T.O. in 2001, the expectation was that its tariffs would later be adjusted lower during global trade talks, known as the Doha Round. But those talks fell apart for a variety of reasons.

中國在2001年加入世貿組織時，外界的期待是該國關税會在之後被稱為多哈回合(Doha Round)的全球貿易談判中調低。但這些談判因為各種各樣的原因破裂了。

How Tariffs Hit Industries

關税如何打擊行業發展

While China’s average tariffs are higher, they vary widely by industry, and that has contributed to big industrial shifts.

儘管中國的平均關税更高，但各個行業的差別很大，這引發了重大的行業遷移。

Consider cars. China’s tariff on imported cars is 25 percent of the wholesale price, which is one reason General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen set up huge factories in China. By contrast, tariffs in the United States are just 2.5 percent for imported cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles. So automakers make in China almost all the cars that they sell there, while many cars in the United States are imported.

看看汽車領域。中國對進口汽車徵收相當於批發價25%的關税，這是通用汽車(General Motors)、福特(Ford)和大眾汽車(Volkswagen)在中國大建工廠的原因之一。相比之下，美國對進口汽車、小型貨車和SUV徵收的關税只有2.5%。所以汽車廠商在中國銷售的汽車幾乎都是在本地生產，而美國的許多汽車都是進口的。

To be sure, automakers have many reasons to build factories in China, including proximity to low-cost suppliers as well as to customers in a big new market.

當然，汽車廠商在中國建廠的理由還有很多，比如離低成本供應商和一個新興大市場的消費者比較近。

Trade Redo

貿易重構

Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers and Republicans in the House of Representatives want to replace America’s current taxes on corporate profits with a system that raises the costs of imports while helping exports.

特朗普的一些顧問和眾議院的一些共和黨人想廢除美國對公司利潤的現行税法，代之以提高進口成本、促進出口的制度。

Companies currently deduct practically all of their costs, including imports, from their sales revenue, and then pay taxes on the profits that are left. The new idea, sometimes called a border-adjusted tax, essentially involves ending the deductibility of imports so that they would be taxed. At the same time, profits on exports would no longer be taxed, and the overall tax rate would be cut. Big beneficiaries would be domestic factory owners and workers and big exporters like Boeing. But other countries might retaliate, and some Senate Republicans worry it could violate the rules of the W.T.O.

目前，公司扣除銷售收入的幾乎所有成本，包括進口成本，然後根據剩餘的利潤納税。而這種有時被稱為邊境調整税的新想法主要涉及停止扣除進口成本，從而對進口貨物徵税。與此同時，將不再對出口利潤徵税，而且將降低整體税率。最大的受益者將是國內工廠所有者和工人以及大型出口公司，比如波音公司(Boeing)。但其他國家可能會報復，參議院的一些共和黨人擔心它可能違反世界貿易組織的規則。

A border-adjusted tax would “mean a trade war not only between China and the U.S. but across the whole world,” said Wei Jianguo, a former Chinese vice minister of commerce. “China is firmly against it.”

前中國商務部副部長魏建國表示，邊境調整税“不僅意味着中美之間的貿易戰，而且是全世界的貿易戰”，“中國堅決反對”。

The idea nonetheless has support among House Republicans, in addition to some of Mr. Trump’s supporters, although the president himself has called it “too complicated.” It has also divided businesses, with big importers opposed.

但是，除了特朗普的一些支持者，這種想法還得到了眾議院共和黨人的支持，儘管總統本人説它“太複雜”。它也在企業中造成了分裂，遭到大型進口商的反對。

Rising Protectionism

不斷增強的保護主義

Even before Mr. Trump took office, America’s taste for free trade was fading. While China protects many more of its industries than the United States does, China has also been moving faster to liberalize.

甚至在特朗普上台之前，美國對自由貿易的興趣就在減退。雖然中國保護的行業比美國的多得多，但中國也在更快地走向自由化。

Global Trade Alert, a nonprofit based in Zurich that tracks and opposes protectionism, has documented 1,066 discriminatory American measures since the height of the global financial crisis in November 2008, including bailouts and subsidies for American companies, Buy America measures, tariff increases and other moves. Those are more measures than in any other country, although that may be partly because it is easier to document such measures in the United States, said Simon Evenett, the project’s leader. The American measures are also extremely narrow, affecting a small share of trade.

跟蹤和反對保護主義的蘇黎世非營利組織“全球貿易預警”(Global Trade Alert)記錄了自2008年11月全球金融危機頂峯以來美國的1066項歧視性措施，包括對美國公司的救助和補貼、“買美國商品”舉措，以及提高關税等措施。該項目領導人西蒙·伊文尼特(Simon Evenett)表示，美國的此類措施比其他任何國家都多，雖然這可能部分是因為記錄美國的這些措施更為容易。美國這些措施的應用範圍也非常狹窄，隻影響到一小部分貿易。

Mr. Wei said that the United States was wrong to feel threatened by China and should embrace free trade. Like many Chinese officials, he sees the Trump administration as motivated to a considerable extent by a fear of the rise of China, and added that “we don’t want the U.S. to have imaginary enemies in geopolitics.”

魏建國稱，美國感覺受到了中國威脅是錯誤的，它應該接受自由貿易。與許多中國官員一樣，他認為特朗普政府在很大程度上是出於對中國崛起的恐懼。他還説，“我們不希望美國有地緣政治假想敵。”