美国下调中国玉米进口预期

The perils of forecasting the Chinese agricultural market came to the fore earlier this month when the US Department of Agriculture slashed its predictions for Chinese corn imports.

本月早些时候，对中国农产品市场的风险预测得到了验证，美国农业部(USDA)大幅下调了其对中国玉米进口的预测。

Last year, the USDA reckoned China was set to become the largest importer of grain. But mounting evidence of rising inventories and falling demand triggered a rethink and it has dramatically cut its forecasts. Last year’s long-term import forecast of 22m tonnes for 2023/24 has been reduced to just 6.5m.

去年，美国农业部估计，中国将成为全球最大玉米进口国。但越来越多的证据显示，中国库存增加和需求下滑，促使美国农业部改变想法，并大幅下调了其预测。去年，美国农业部对2023/24年度中国玉米进口的长期预测为2200万吨，如今已被下调至区区650万吨。

“The whole picture has really changed over the past 18 months or so,” said Fred Gale, senior economist at the USDA’s economic research service.

美国农业部经济研究局高级经济学家弗雷德•盖尔(Fred Gale)表示：“过去18个月左右，整体状况确实发生了变化。”

Stronger demand for overseas, especially US, corn in 2011 and 2012, saw analysts both inside and outside China predict the country would become a net importer of the grain, which is mainly used for livestock and poultry feed and processed foods.

2011年和2012年中国对海外（特别是美国）玉米的需求上升，使得中国国内外分析人士都预测，中国将成为玉米净进口国。玉米主要用做牲畜和家禽饲料以及加工食品。

So what happened?

那么发生了什么？

After record crops in 2012 and 2013, and an abrupt drop off in consumption, China has found itself with a huge corn stockpile.

在2012年和2013年产量创下纪录后，消费突然下滑，中国发现本国出现大量玉米库存。

“It could take years for China to dispose of such large surpluses,” says the USDA in its latest report on the country’s agricultural imports.

美国农业部在有关中国农产品进口的最新报告中称：“中国可能需要数年来消化如此大规模的过剩库存。”

Apart from the favourable weather, the story behind the rise in Chinese inventories will be familiar to traders in sugar and cotton. Beijing’s farmer support policies mean a higher support price for corn compared with international prices. Not only does it encourage domestic production but also purchases of cheap imports as global grain prices plunged.

除了气候条件有利之外，中国玉米库存上升的内情与糖和棉花一样，糖和棉花贸易商对此相当熟悉。中国农业补贴政策意味着，与国际价格相比，中国玉米价格更高。这不仅鼓励了国内生产，还促使中国在全球粮价下挫之际购买廉价进口玉米。

Reserves also ballooned as authorities bought domestic corn to support the market during the 2013/14 crop year, raising official corn stocks to 100m tonnes, about half of the country’s annual consumption.

2013/14作物年度期间，随着中国政府购买国产玉米支撑玉米市场，玉米储备也随之增加。官方玉米库存升至1亿吨，约占中国年度消费量的一半。

Another factor has been a surge in Chinese imports of sorghum and barley, a corn substitute, says Mr Gale. Sorghum and barley — which have no import quotas unlike other grains — jumped to 11.5m tonnes in the 2014/15 crop year from 1.7m in 2010/11, according to USDA data.

盖尔表示，另一个因素是中国高粱和大麦（都是玉米替代品）的进口飙升。根据美国农业部的数据，2014/15作物年度，高粱和大麦（与其他粮食不同，没有进口配额限制）进口量从2010/11年度的170万吨飙升至1150万吨。

Although authorities placed 63m tonnes of corn through auctions to try to reduce its stockpile, only 25m tonnes were purchased, says the USDA. In spite of this, Beijing has announced that it would buy corn from the 2014 harvest to support prices. Current stock levels for corn are at a 14-year high.

美国农业部表示，尽管中国政府为减少库存拍卖6300万吨玉米，但成交量只有2500万吨。即便如此，中国政府仍宣布将收购2014年收获的玉米，以支撑价格。目前的玉米库存为14年以来的高点。

Even when China does eventually turn to imports, it is likely to try to keep this to the minimum. Government officials view agricultural imports as unavoidable but also appear to distrust international markets, according to the USDA report.

尽管中国最终仍会转向玉米进口，但中国可能会努力将进口量降至最低。根据美国农业部的报告，中国政府官员将农产品进口视为不可避免之举，但似乎不相信国际市场。

“The food security strategy is strongly influenced by the perceived dominance of imports and foreign companies in China’s soyabean industry, which has been described as a potential threat to the country’s soyabean supply,” it says.

报告称：“在中国大豆行业，进口产品以及外资企业明显占主导地位，这强烈影响着食品安全战略，这些被视为中国大豆供应的潜在威胁。”

This stance helps explain China’s actions over food trade over the past few years. First, it has diversified food import sources in order to give the country’s importers greater price negotiating power as well as reduce risks from a potential trade embargo. For example, China’s authorities opened up its market to corn from Argentina and Ukraine in 2012 as imports from the US began increasing.

这种态度有助于解释过去几年中国在食品贸易方面的举措。为了赋予中国进口商更大的价格谈判权，同时降低可能的贸易禁运的风险，中国对食品进口来源实现了多样化。例如，2012年，随着来自美国的进口玉米的增加，中国政府向产自阿根廷和乌克兰的玉米开放了市场。

Second, China is looking to gain greater control over its agricultural import supply chains through overseas investments. The move by COFCO — or China National Cereals, Oil and Foodstuffs Corp — where the state-owned group took a stake in an agriculture joint venture with Noble Group, and separately purchased a controlling stake in Dutch agricultural trading house Nidera, seems to follow that strategy.

其次，中国指望通过海外投资获得对其农产品进口供应链获得更大控制。国有企业中粮(COFCO)与来宝集团(Noble Group)组建了一家农业合资公司，另外还购入荷兰农产品贸易集团Nidera的控股权，这些举措似乎是在遵循上述战略。

A rise in overseas investments will offer a larger share of profits for Chinese companies, establish reliable supplies for the domestic market, and gain more influence over international prices, says the report.

报告称，扩大海外投资将让中国企业获得更多利润、为国内市场取得可靠供应，并对国际价格施加更大影响。