中国小型银行不良贷款比率激增

Bad loans are rising sharply at the lowest tiers of China’s financial sector, with some small commercial banks reporting delinquency rates of 20 per cent or more on their loan books.

中国金融业最低端机构的不良贷款正在急剧增长，部分小型商业银行的财报显示，其贷款账簿中关注类贷款的占比达到20%或以上。

Debt levels in China’s $29tn banking system has been described by some analysts as reaching “epidemic” levels as economic growth slows to the lowest level since the onset of the global financial crisis and corporations struggle to repay loans.

中国经济增长放缓至全球金融危机爆发以来的最低水平，企业偿贷难度较大。在这种大环境下，按照部分分析师的说法，中国规模达29万亿美元的银行业体系中的债务水平正逼近“爆发点”。

City and rural commercial banks are a big wedge of China’s financial system, constituting nearly a quarter of assets in the country’s commercial banking sector.

城市和农村商业银行是中国金融体系的一大组成部分，其资产占中国商业银行部门的近四分之一。

Earnings reports posted to the websites of city and rural banks during the past two months testify to deteriorating quality, with some revealing that more than 20 per cent of their loan books were at risk of missed payment or default.

过去两个月城市和农村银行网站上发布的财报证明，它们的资产质量正在恶化。其中部分银行的财报披露，其贷款账簿上逾20%的贷款面临拖欠或违约的风险。

“You can say that these rural and city commercial banks are the weakest part of China’s gigantic banking sector,” said Xia Le, chief Asia economist at BBVA Research in Hong Kong. “Financial risks are likely to unfold in them first.”

西班牙对外银行(BBVA)研究部门驻香港的首席亚洲经济学家夏乐表示：“可以说，在中国庞大的银行业部门中，这些农村和城市商业银行是最薄弱的一环。金融风险很可能会最先从它们身上爆发。”

Liuzhou Bank proved an early example last year when it suffered an unprecedented $4.9bn loan fraud , equivalent to a third of its total assets. Just 78.4 per cent of the bank’s loan book was considered “normal” by the end of the year.

柳州银行(Liuzhou Bank)被证明是一个较早出现的例子。去年，该行遭遇了一场史无前例的、规模达49亿美元的骗贷，这个数字相当于该行总资产的三分之一。截至去年底，该行贷款账簿上只有78.4%的贷款被认定为“正常”贷款。

Special mention loans, which are overdue but not yet considered non-performing, doubled at Liuzhou Bank to 19.84 per cent in 2015. Many analysts say this category should be included in the count of distressed assets.

该行的关注类贷款占比在2015年上升了一倍，达到19.84%。许多分析师表示，这一类贷款应该被纳入不良资产的统计中。

By that broader measure, China’s average level of bad debt at commercial banks expands from the official 1.75 per cent at the end of March to between 5-7 per cent.

按照这一扩大后的衡量标准，3月底中国各商业银行的平均坏债水平会从官方数字1.75%升至5%到7%。

China has several thousand city or rural banks. Several of those banks included in a small survey conducted by the Financial Times had rates of special mention loans between 10 to 15 per cent of total loans.

中国有几千家城市或农村商业银行。英国《金融时报》展开的小型调查所涵盖的几家此类银行，其关注类贷款占比在10%到15%之间。

At Jiangsu Wujiang Rural Commercial Bank, just 76 per cent of the bank’s loans were considered normal by the end of last year, while special mention loans had soared to 21.43 per cent, the highest of all the bank reports surveyed.

在江苏吴江农村商业银行(Jiangsu Wujiang Rural Commercial Bank)，截至去年底只有76%的贷款被认定为正常贷款，关注类贷款占比则激增至21.43%，是上述调查所涵盖的银行中占比最高的。

The collapse of a city bank poses the risk of a “small-scale or geographical crisis” in China but not systemic risk to the system as a whole, according to Xia at BBVA.

按照夏乐的说法，城商银行崩盘或导致中国发生“小规模或局地性危机”，但不会对整个金融体系构成系统性风险。

Small banks are somewhat disconnected from the political process in Beijing, said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at London-based Enodo Economics. That means oversight on the lenders has been weaker than at national-level banks. Leaders at small banks are therefore more likely to bow to local economic pressure, such as keeping alive steel mills and other large employers at the expense of asset quality, Choyleva said.

伦敦Enodo Economics首席经济学家黛安娜•乔伊列娃(Diana Choyleva)表示，小银行与北京方面的政治进程多少有些脱节。这意味着，对这类银行的监管一直比全国性银行弱。乔伊列娃表示，出于这个原因，小银行的负责人更有可能屈从于当地在经济方面的压力，比如会以牺牲资产质量为代价，确保钢厂及其他大型用人单位的存活。