從衛生間看你的借貸償還能力
KUNSHAN, China — Banks and other lenders typically look at borrowers’ credit histories, tax forms and other financial information to determine whether they will get paid back. In China, lenders also look at their bathrooms.
中國崑山——銀行等貸款機構通常會考察借方的信用記錄、稅務報表以及其他財務資訊，以便確認他們是否具有償還能力。在中國，貸方還會檢視他們的衛生間。
Lenders have to be creative. As the economy slows, the government wants to nurture a credit culture to get Chinese families spending instead of saving.
貸方必須具備創新精神。隨著經濟放緩，政府想要培育一種信用文化，推動中國家庭多消費，而不是多儲蓄。
But judging creditworthiness is tricky in a country where cash reigns, fraud is rife and even the most basic details can be difficult to verify. Despite China’s size and wealth, most people have never taken out a mortgage or used a credit card, so lenders often have little reliable information about potential borrowers.
但在一個現金佔據主導、欺詐屢見不鮮，甚至連最基本的細節也難以核實的國度裡，判斷信用可靠度是一項棘手的工作。儘管中國是一個擁有許多財富的大國，但大多數人從未獲得過抵押貸款或者使用過信用卡，因此貸方手上基本沒有關於潛在借款者的可靠資訊。
To fill the gaps, one upstart lender, China Rapid Finance, supplements data analysis with on-the-ground spade work. The company’s investigators, in more than 90 cities, check for the number of toothbrushes or towels to determine how many people are living in a house. They look for dirty dishes in the kitchen. They take photos of a potential borrower at work to confirm employment status.
為了填補這一空白，信貸界新晉企業信而富(China Rapid Finance)以實地調查作為資料分析的補充。該公司遍佈90多個城市的調查人員，會通過牙刷或者毛巾的數量來確定一套房子裡住著多少人。他們會進廚房尋找髒盤子。會為潛在借款者拍攝工作照，以確認其就業狀況。
A growing number of companies are trying to crack the credit code in China. The internet giants Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu are developing credit scoring systems based on users’ online transactions and search histories. Another niche lender, Jubao Internet Technology, plugs dozens of variables into its proprietary credit formula, including whether borrowers use their social media accounts to connect with celebrities.
在中國，竭力破解信用密碼的公司日益增多。網際網路巨頭阿里巴巴、騰訊和百度正在研發以使用者的線上交易和搜尋歷史記錄為基礎的信用評分系統。另一家專注利基市場的信貸機構聚寶匯把數十種變數納入了其專有的信用公式，其中包括借方是否會用自己的社交媒體賬號與名人交流。
“This is probably the largest untapped consumer finance market globally,” said the founder and chief executive of China Rapid Finance, Zane Wang, who spent years as the head of analytics at the credit arm of Sears, the American retailer.
“這或許是全球最大的有待開發的消費金融市場，”信而富創始人兼執行長王徵宇說。他曾在美國零售商希爾斯公司(Sears)的信用卡部門當過多年的分析主管。
Getting credit right is crucial to China’s economic plans. The government is trying to bolster consumer spending to help offset the sharp decline in the smokestack industries that previously helped power the country’s ascent. China will need to increase the use of credit to make it easier to spend, while at the same time avoiding the pitfalls that come with too much debt.
用好信貸對中國的經濟規劃而言至關重要。以前曾為中國崛起提供動力的傳統重工業陡然出現滑坡，政府正竭力拉昇消費支出，以抵消其影響。中國需要加大對信貸的利用力度，好讓消費變得更加便利，同時又要避免掉進負債過多的陷阱。
Shifting generational dynamics will play a big role, as China’s millennials are much more likely to use credit than their scrimping and saving parents. But lenders will also need to put the right products in their hands.
代際轉換態勢將起到舉足輕重的作用，因為比起省吃儉用的父母，中國的千禧一代利用信貸的可能性要大得多。但貸方也需要向他們奉上適當的產品。
While the country’s wealth has swelled, the financial system has not kept pace.
儘管中國的財富在增長，但其金融系統並未保持同步。
Most consumers lack access to credit cards, loans and other traditional products offered by banks. The World Bank estimates that 79 percent of China’s population above the age of 15 have bank accounts, while only 10 percent have ever borrowed from the formal financial system.
大多數消費者都缺乏獲得信用卡、貸款或者銀行提供的其他傳統產品的途徑。世界銀行(World Bank)估計，15歲以上的中國人裡，擁有銀行賬戶的佔79%，但從正規的金融系統中借過錢的只有10%。
China’s banks have a modest consumer lending business. But they typically favor making loans to big state-owned companies.
中國各銀行的消費信貸業務不溫不火。但它們通常樂於為大型國有企業提供貸款。
Instead, online lenders are emerging as the pioneers, catering to China’s rising consumer class. Alibaba’s financial affiliate makes small loans to online shoppers and vendors on its e-commerce platforms. offers loans for small purchases and education-related expenses. Peer-to-peer lenders match investors with consumers, small businesses and other borrowers.
相反，網路信貸機構正以先鋒的姿態冒出頭來，迎合中國日益壯大的消費階層的需求。阿里巴巴的金融子公司為其電子商務平臺上的買家和賣家提供小額貸款。京東商城向小額購買以及與教育相關的支出提供貸款。個人對個人信貸機構把投資者與消費者、小企業以及其他借款者匹配起來。
They are trying to attract the next generation of spenders like Mao Yiting, a researcher at the local antiquities bureau in the coastal city of Haining.
它們正想方設法地吸引新一代借款者，沿海城市海寧當地文物保護管理機構的研究人員茅奕婷就是它們的目標之一。
Ms. Mao, 27, has never had a credit card or taken out a loan. But she regularly borrows small amounts of just over $90 from Huabei, a consumer lending business started by the Alibaba affiliate Ant Financial. She uses the money to pay for online purchases like books, dog food, or ingredients for the dessert recipes she likes to cook.
27歲的茅奕婷從未辦過信用卡或者向銀行申請過貸款。但她會定期通過花唄借得少量款項——只有90美元多一點。花唄是阿里巴巴的子公司螞蟻金服推出的消費信貸業務。她用這筆錢在網上購買書籍、狗糧，或者購買食材做她愛做的甜點。
“I always pay the debt on Huabei on time,” said Ms. Mao, who repays the money in installments. “It’s more convenient than the credit cards issued by banks.”
“我總是及時在螞蟻花唄上還款。花唄比銀行的信用卡方便多了。”會分期還款的茅奕婷說。
But online lending in China still has a Wild West aspect — for both the lender and the borrower.
但中國的網路信貸仍有蠻荒西部(Wild West)的一面——對放款者和借款者而言都是如此。
Peer-to-peer platforms have proved hugely popular in China, with outstanding loans of more than 600 billion renminbi ($90 billion), according to figures compiled by Moody’s Investors Service and Wangdaizhijia. But the industry’s reputation has been marred by scandal, like the collapse of Ezubao, which authorities called a $7.6 billion Ponzi scheme.
事實證明，個人對個人平臺在中國極受歡迎，來自穆迪投資者服務公司(Moody’s Investors Service)和網貸之家的資料顯示，此類平臺的未償貸款額突破了6000億人民幣（約合900億美元）。但這個行業的聲譽卻因E租寶倒臺之類的醜聞而蒙羞。當局稱，E租寶製造了一個76億美元的龐氏騙局。
After that, regulators have stepped up their oversight of online lenders, including setting caps on the amounts that can be borrowed. The regulators’ tightening grip is “something like a shepherd gradually herding his sheep into an increasingly narrowing pen or chute,” said Mark Natkin, the founder and managing director at Marbridge Consulting, based in Beijing.
那之後，監管機構加強了對網貸平臺的監管，採取了設定貸款額度上限等舉措。其收緊控制之舉“有點兒像是牧羊人把羊群逐漸趕進越來越窄的羊欄或者溜道，”總部設在北京的邁博瑞諮詢有限公司(Marbridge Consulting)的執行董事馬克•納特金(Mark Natkin)說道。
The lenders themselves are entering a financial black hole, with little to no credit history on potential borrowers.
至於借方自己，它們正進入一個金融黑洞，幾乎不掌握潛在借款者的信用記錄。
In the United States, the Big Three credit bureaus — Equifax, Experian and TransUnion — compile borrowing and repayment records to create so-called FICO scores. Financial institutions rely heavily on those scores to make lending decisions.
在美國，三大信評機構——Equinox、Experian和TransUnion——會收集借款和還款記錄，給出所謂的FICO信用分數。金融機構在做貸款決策時極為依賴這些分數。
China lacks a direct equivalent. The central bank’s main database includes personal credit history data on less than a third of the country’s population.
中國缺乏與之直接對應的東西。央行的主資料庫裡只有該國不到三分之一人口的個人信用記錄。
“Compared with the broad consumer base, there is still lots of room to go,” said Paul Wang, a co-founder and the chief executive of , a Shanghai start-up that guides online lenders on risk management.
“與龐大的消費群相比，還有很大的改進空間，”樂融金融()聯合創始人兼執行長王文陽說。樂融金融是上海一家引導網路借貸機構進行風險管理的初創企業。
Without a more complete depository of information, the industry is finding new ways to build those histories.
由於沒有更為完備的資訊庫，這個行業正在尋找建立信用記錄的新方法。
WeLab, an online lender, uses data collected on mobile phones, with the permission of users, to automatically process hundreds of details about potential borrowers’ habits, online and offline. When deciding whether to lend money, it becomes granular, like the time of a day a loan application is submitted. Those filed from 1 and 6 a.m. have a higher correlation with repayment default, according to Simon Loong, the founder and chief executive of WeLab.
網路貸款機構我來貸(Welab)在得到使用者允許的情況下，利用收集自手機的資料，自動處理潛在借款者線上線下各種習慣的大量詳盡資訊。在決定是否放貸的時候，它會更加註重各種細節，比如貸款申請是在一天中的哪個時段提交的。我來貸的創始人兼執行長龍沛智稱，申請如果是在凌晨1點至早上6點之間提交的，還款違約的概率就會高一些。
“Getting efficient access to cheap lending is still a fundamental way of how people improve their quality of life,” said Mr. Loong, a banking veteran whose start-up has backing from Li Ka-shing, the Hong Kong billionaire, and Sequoia, the Silicon Valley investor.
“擁有獲得低廉信貸的有效途徑，依然是人們提高生活品質的基本方法，”曾長期從事銀行業的龍沛智說。他的初創企業獲得了香港億萬富豪李嘉誠和矽谷紅杉資本(Sequoia)的投資。
China Rapid Finance draws on transaction data and other records from dozens of internet companies, including Baidu and Tencent. The company feeds this raw data into its own algorithms to identify potential customers.
信而富會利用來自百度、騰訊等數十家網際網路企業的交易資料以及其他記錄。該公司用自己的演算法來處理這些原始資料，進而識別出潛在客戶。
Based on that information, the company first gives out small, preapproved loans to build a credit history. China Rapid recently teamed up with Tencent’s QQ messaging platform to offer loans of $75.
基於這些資訊，信而富會發放預先批准的小額貸款，以便建立信用記錄。它最近和騰訊的QQ通通訊平臺聯手推出了限額為75美元（約合500元人民幣）的信貸產品。
After a borrower repays several loans, the company then hands out bigger amounts. At that point, the company’s investigators step into the mix to vet borrowers further.
一個借款者還過幾次款以後，該公司會增加額度。屆時，公司的調查人員就會加入進來，進一步稽核借款者的情況。
One applicant, the company said, wanted to borrow 100,000 renminbi for 18 months at an annual interest rate of 2.89 percent. The applicant, a 28-year-old single man from Changchun, wanted the money to renovate his home.
該公司稱，曾有一名申請者想要借10萬元，期限為18個月，年利率為2.89%。這是一名28歲的單身男子，來自長春，想用這筆錢翻修自己的住房。
It did not pass muster. On inspection, the company found that the applicant had stayed at what he claimed was his residence for only three days. His stated employer had no record of him.
這份申請沒能通過稽核。該公司在稽核時發現，這名申請者在其聲稱的自家住宅裡剛剛住了三天。他口中的僱主那裡也沒有他的記錄。
”We need to have a mechanism to check and verify,” said Mr. Wang of China Rapid Finance. “We have to start somewhere.”
“我們需要有一個核查機制，”信而富的王徵宇說。“我們必須著手去做。”
