數字化時代的海爾戰略 Freezing out the factory worker

I first spotted the Chinese name “Haier” on a fridge in an American store about a decade ago. At the time, this seemed a potent symbol of global economic change. When I was a child in 1970s Britain, electrical appliances all tended to carry labels saying “made in Japan”, or “made in Korea” (or, on occasion, made in the US, or Germany).

10年前，在美國的一家商店裏，我第一次在一臺冰箱上看到“海爾”(Haier)這兩個字。當時，那似乎是全球經濟變革的一個強有力的象徵。在上世紀70年代的英國，我還是一個孩子的時候，所有家電的標籤上基本都寫着“日本製造”或“韓國製造”（偶爾也會標着“美國製造”或“德國製造”）。

Since then China has become famous — or infamous — as the factory of the world. The Haier company, whose headquarters are in the city of Qingdao, likes to bill itself as the world’s number-one maker of white goods. With more than $30bn of revenues, it has ousted Whirlpool to become the biggest global producer of home appliances. That “made in China” label, in other words, delivered ferocious success.

從那以後，中國作爲世界工廠聲名（或者惡名）遠揚。總部設在青島市的海爾公司喜歡標榜自身爲世界頭號白色家電製造商。海爾集團已超過惠而浦(Whirlpool)，成爲全球最大家電製造商。該集團去年全球營業額超300億美元。換句話說，那枚“中國製造”的標籤，取得了巨大成功。

Recently, however, I have learnt that there is a second, more unexpected reason why the Haier name is a potent symbol of economic change. A couple of weeks ago, I met Zhang Ruimin, the company’s charismatic chief executive officer, at a Drucker Forum debate in Vienna. As he discussed his corporate strategy, Zhang nonchalantly revealed that the Chinese company had cut its staff by more than 15 per cent in the past couple of years, shedding 10,000 middle managers as well as many ordinary workers.

然而，最近我發現還有更出人意料的第二個原因，表明“海爾”這個名字是經濟變革的有力象徵。上個月，在維也納舉行的彼得德魯克全球論壇(Global Peter Drucker Forum)的一場辯論會上，我和海爾公司魅力超凡的首席執行官張瑞敏見面了。在討論他的企業戰略時，張瑞敏語氣平淡地透露，在過去幾年，海爾裁減了超過15%的員工，其中包括1萬名中層經理，還有很多普通工人。

This is not because of faltering demand for fridges; far from it. Instead, Zhang has been implementing what he likes to call a strategy of “networking” and “zero distance to the consumer”. This essentially means using the internet and other technological tools to cut out layers of human bureaucracy and processes at Haier — as well as thousands of jobs.

這並不是因爲對冰箱的需求正在衰退；遠非如此。相反，張瑞敏一直在實施一個戰略，他將其稱爲“網絡化”和“與用戶零距離”。這主要是指利用互聯網和其他技術工具，削減海爾管理體系和工作流程的層級——以及成千上萬的工作崗位。

I dare say some FT readers will shrug their shoulders at this, given that western companies have been using digital networks to eliminate workers for many years. Whenever I have met executives in the past year, at companies ranging from Rio Tinto to Levi Strauss to Syngenta, they have extolled the benefits of using digitisation to boost “productivity”. Indeed, this trend is now so well entrenched in the western world that analysts at the Oxford Martin business school think 47 per cent of current American jobs could disappear over the next two decades. But the fact that people such as Zhang are now talking about digitisation “efficiencies” in China brings a whole new twist to this trend. After all, the reason those “made in China” labels have become so ubiquitous is that Chinese labour costs have been very low — lower than those of the west.

我敢說，一些英國《金融時報》的讀者看到這裏會聳聳肩膀，因爲西方企業多年來一直在利用數字化網絡精簡人員。過去一年，從力拓(Rio Tinto)、李維斯(Levi Strauss)到先正達(Syngenta)，每當我遇到企業高管，他們都會盛讚利用數字化提高“生產效率”的好處。事實上，現在這種趨勢在西方市場已經根深蒂固，牛津大學馬丁學院(Oxford Matin School)的分析人士認爲，在接下來20年中，當前美國47%的工作崗位可能消失。但像張瑞敏這樣的人現在在中國談論數字化“效率”，給這股趨勢帶來了新的轉折。畢竟，那些“中國製造”的標籤之所以變得隨處可見，正是因爲中國的勞動力成本一直非常低廉——比西方要低。

The crucial point about digitisation is that not only do robots and barcodes perform many functions more cheaply, efficiently and consistently than American workers, they also undercut the cost of humans in China and India. And this has big implications for the global economy. For one thing, it may make it easier for American and European companies to keep industrial processes in the west, instead of exporting them to China.

數字化的一個關鍵點是，機器人和條形碼不僅以比美國工人更廉價、更高效、更穩定的方式執行許多任務，它們還比中國和印度的人力成本更低。這會對全球經濟產生深遠影響。一方面，這使美國和歐洲企業更容易把工業生產過程留在西方，而不是輸出到中國。

It may also reduce the number of jobs attached to those “made in China/India/Vietnam” labels, which could change how emerging markets develop in the coming years. “Ever since the industrial revolution, manufacturing has been the key to rapid economic growth. But manufacturing today is not what it used to be,” Dani Rodrik, the Harvard economist, wrote in a blog some months ago. He fears that the emerging markets are now heading for “premature deindustrialisation”. Countries such as India and China can no longer expect to mimic the UK’s industrial revolution, in which a large chunk of the workforce was employed in factories for several decades before the economy matured. Instead, the emerging markets may need to rely on the service sector to employ workers.

這還會減少和“中國/印度/越南製造”標籤相關聯的工作崗位，從而可能改變新興市場未來數年的發展方式。“自工業革命以後，製造業一直是快速經濟增長的關鍵。但今天的製造業已經和過去不同了，”哈佛(Harvard)經濟學家達尼圠德里克(Dani Rodrik)數月前在一篇博客中寫道。他擔心，新興市場現在正朝着“過早的去工業化”前進。印度和中國等國無法再期望複製英國的工業革命——在經濟成熟以前的幾十年中，一大部分勞動力受僱於工廠。相反，新興市場或許需要依賴服務業來僱傭勞動者。

Even if Rodrik is correct (and not all economists agree with him), this scenario is not necessarily a disaster. History shows that technology has changed the nature of work before: in the 19th century, for example, the agricultural revolution destroyed millions of farm jobs. But back then new jobs emerged to absorb the workers. And they were in factories.

即使羅德里克是正確的（並非所有經濟學家都認同他的觀點），這樣的景象也並不一定是災難。歷史表明，技術過去也曾改變工作的性質：比如，在19世紀，農業革命摧毀了數百萬農場工作。但那時出現了新的工作崗位，吸納了就業——那些新的工作崗位在工廠裏。

Something similar may well happen again. Zhang insists that Haier’s former workers are already adapting to industrial change — finding new internet-linked roles as small-scale entrepreneurs, collaborating with Haier or selling services to it. And consultants such as McKinsey and PwC think that digitisation could create millions of new jobs in emerging markets over the next couple of decades. Zhang argues that these new jobs offer far more “creativity” and “freedom” for workers — at least compared with the grind of churning out fridges.

類似的事情很可能再次發生。張瑞敏堅稱，海爾的前員工已經開始適應行業變革——找到和互聯網相關聯的新角色，作爲小微企業主和海爾合作，或者向海爾提供服務。麥肯錫(McKinsey)和普華永道(PwC)等諮詢公司認爲，未來幾十年，數字化可能在新興市場創造數百萬新工作。張瑞敏認爲，這些新工作爲勞動者提供多得多的“創意”和“自由”——至少相對於生產冰箱的繁重工作來說是這樣的。

Perhaps so. But the flip side of digitised worker “freedom” is often insecurity — just look at the heated debate around Uber. Either way, if you spot the Haier label in the shops this holiday season, it is worth remembering the changes now embodied in that “made in China” tag. Digitisation is no longer just a western game — even, or especially, with something as humble as a fridge.

或許如此。但數字化員工的另一面往往是缺乏保障——看看圍繞着優步(Uber)展開的激烈辯論就明白了。不管怎樣，如果這個假日季你在商店裏看到海爾的標誌，記住“中國製造”標籤現在體現的改變是值得的。數字化不再只是西方的遊戲——哪怕只是（或者說尤其是）在冰箱這樣不起眼的事物上。