中國IT四巨頭BANT挑戰美國FANG

Incisive Chinese companies have long been sinking their teeth into their western rivals. Now the country has developed its answer to the “Fangs” phenomenon, one of the remaining crown jewels of the west.

雄心勃勃的中國企業早已將尖牙深深地嵌入西方競爭對手的身體。如今，中國已經找到了對付西方王冠上僅剩的寶石之一“FANG”的辦法。“FANG”指Facebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Netflix與谷歌(Google)四家互聯網公司（尷尬的是，谷歌已改名爲Alphabet）。

The internet-focused quartet of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (now renamed Alphabet, awkwardly) saw their share prices surge more than 70 per cent, on average, last year, even as the wider US stock market fell.

去年，雖然美國股市普遍呈現跌勢，但FANG的股價平均大漲逾70%。

Now China is responding with its very own quartet of Bants — Baidu, Alibaba, Netease and Tencent.

如今，中國正以自己的四巨頭“BANT”——百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、網易(Netease)與騰訊(Tencent)——予以迴應。

Since 2013, emerging market equity funds have quadrupled their exposure to China’s new Gang of Four to more than 4 per cent, equivalent to $11bn, according to data from Copley Fund Research, which tracks 121 EM equity funds with combined assets of $235bn.

根據Copley Fund Research公司的數據，自2013年以來，新興市場股票型基金對中國新“四巨頭”的敞口已經翻了兩番，配置比例超過4%，相當於110億美元。Copley跟蹤資產規模合計爲2350億美元的121只新興市場股票型基金。

Tencent has led the way, with its weighting in the average EM fund rising fourfold to more than 2 per cent since 2011, but Alibaba has shown explosive growth of late, as the first chart shows.

如下面的圖一所示，騰訊一路領先，自2011年以來，該公司在新興市場股票基金中的平均配置權重上漲3倍，超過了2%，但阿里巴巴最近呈現爆炸式增長。

“You can draw parallels to the Fang stocks in the US being, as they are, a mixture of internet search, social networks and ecommerce companies. These four stocks are starting to dominate things in the internet space in emerging markets,” says Steven Holden, founder of Copley.

Copley創始人史蒂文霍爾登(Steven Holden)說：“這四家公司包含了互聯網搜索、社交網絡及電子商務，所以你可以將它們與美國的FANG相比。這四家公司正開始主導新興市場的互聯網空間。”

Gary Greenberg, head of emerging markets at Hermes Investment Management, who has a weighting of 10.8 per cent to the Bants in his Global EM fund, adds: “We think there is growth here that can continue, cash flow generation that is remarkable relative to Chinese old economy industries, along with some real innovation and disruption.

Hermes Investment Management新興市場主管加里格林伯格(Gary Greenberg)補充道：“我們認爲，這四家公司的增長可以持續，產生現金流的能力相對中國舊的經濟產業很突出，還有一些真正的創新和顛覆。”格林伯格在自己的全球新興市場基金中對BANT的配置權重爲10.8%。

“Their underlying economy is growing, especially the consumer service sector, disclosure is steadily improving and scepticism among the international community is high [preventing valuations from rising too far],” Mr Greenberg says.

“它們所處的整體經濟正在增長，尤其是消費服務業，信息披露也在不斷改善，而國際社會的疑慮較高（使得估值沒有過度攀高），”格林伯格說。

The rise of the Bants has helped drive a dramatic reshaping of EM equity portfolios since 2012. Allocations to technology stocks in general have risen sharply, hitting a record 20.6 per cent in March, according to Copley, while holdings of energy and materials stocks have slumped in line with plunging commodity prices, as the second chart shows.

自2012年以來，BANT的崛起推動了新興市場股票投資組合的劇烈重組。Copley的數據顯示，科技股的配置比例總體上大幅上升，3月觸及創紀錄的20.6%，而對能源、材料類股的配置則伴隨大宗商品價格的暴跌而銳減（如下面的圖二所示）。

Within the internet subsector, which constitutes 6 per cent of the typical EM fund, however, the Chinese heavyweights appear to be elbowing aside their competition.

互聯網類股在新興市場基金配置中平均佔比6%，而中國的重量級公司似乎正在擠掉自己的競爭對手。

Chinese companies now account for 83 per cent of EM equity funds’ internet holdings, with Russia and South Korea accounting for a further 10 per cent between them.

目前，中國企業佔新興市場股票基金互聯網資產的83%，俄羅斯與韓國加起來佔10%。

However, the latter are on the slide, with the rise of Bants largely supplanting ownership of more established internet names such as Naver, South Korea’s biggest internet portal operator, and , the internet group controlled by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, Mr Holden says. (For those who get hot under the collar about South Korea being classed as an emerging market, equity investors are largely guided by the MSCI EM index, which includes the likes of South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.)

然而，霍爾登表示，俄羅斯與韓國的佔比還在下降，因爲BANT的崛起很大程度上取代了歷史更悠久的互聯網公司的份額，例如韓國最大的互聯網門戶網站運營商Naver，以及俄羅斯億萬富翁阿利舍爾烏斯馬諾夫(Alisher Usmanov)控制的互聯網集團。（有人會對將韓國歸爲新興市場感到不滿，但股票投資機構大都根據MSCI明晟新興市場指數進行投資，該指數納入了韓國、臺灣和新加坡）。

“What is becoming clear is the emergence of a ‘big four’ [which] are starting to dominate the sector,” says Mr Holden, with 79 per cent of EM funds holding at least one of the Bants.

霍爾登表示，“越來越清楚的是‘四大’的崛起，它們正開始主導這一行業”， 79%的新興市場基金持有BANT中至少一家的股票。

Funds managed by Oppenheimer, William Blair, Calamos, Columbia and Delaware as well as Hermes, each have an exposure of at least 8 per cent to the Bants, while Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford leads the way with weightings of 13.3 per cent and 12.8 per cent respectively in its EM Leading Companies and EM Growth funds respectively.

奧本海默(Oppenheimer)、威廉布萊爾(William Blair)、Calamos、哥倫比亞(Columbia)、特拉華(Delaware)及Hermes等公司管理的基金，每隻都對BANT至少有8%的敞口，而總部位於愛丁堡的Baillie Gifford公司處於領先，其“新興市場領先企業基金”(EM Leading Companies)和“新興市場成長基金”(EM Growth)的BANT權重分別爲13.3%和12.8%。

Richard Sneller, head of emerging market equities at Baillie Gifford, told EM Squared this year that “in many emerging markets the speed with which young consumers are adapting to technological change, in areas such as ecommerce and online shopping, is much faster than in the US.

Baillie Gifford新興市場股票主管理查德斯內勒(Richard Sneller)今年對英國《金融時報》“直擊新興市場”欄目(EM Squared)表示，“在電子商務和在線購物等領域，許多新興市場的年輕消費者適應技術變革的速度比美國要快得多。”

“Trends that we hoped would emerge 15-20 years ago have come to generate significant cash flows.”

“我們在15至20年前希望出現的趨勢，已開始產生大量的現金流。”

The surge in demand for the Bants was in part a response to MSCI’s decision to include some companies listed outside the emerging markets in its flagship EM index.

BANT受到熱捧，部分是因爲MSCI明晟決定將一些在新興市場以外上市的公司納入其旗艦新興市場指數。

The move, the first stage of which came into effect in November 2015, brought New York-listed Baidu, Netease and Alibaba into the index for the first time, a move that appears to have particularly boosted the latter.

2015年11月，該決定的第一階段已生效。在紐約上市的百度、網易和阿里巴巴首次被納入MSCI明晟新興市場指數，這似乎尤其增加了阿里巴巴的熱度。

“Alibaba has captured the largest number of new investors over the last six months. A net 15 per cent of funds opened new positions including TT International, Schroders and Lazard among others,” says Mr Holden, who calculates that the funds in his database have invested a net $840m in Alibaba in the past half year.

“在過去6個月裏，阿里巴巴俘獲的新投資者數量最多。淨15%的基金建立了對它的新頭寸，其中包括TT International、施羅德(Schroders)和瑞德(Lazard)等機構，”霍爾登說。據他計算，他數據庫中的基金在過去半年裏對阿里巴巴的投資淨額達到8.4億美元。

Mutual funds’ holdings of the Bants could rise to higher levels still, with the index weighting of Alibaba, Baidu and Netease due to rise further in May, when MSCI implements the second and final stage of its plan to fully incorporate such stocks in its EM index.

今年5月，當MSCI明晟執行其計劃的第二個、也是最後一個階段，把這類股票完全納入其新興市場指數中時，阿里巴巴、百度和網易的指數權重將進一步加大，所以共同基金對BANT的持股量可能會上升至更高水平。

Mr Greenberg argues that valuations “are not unreasonable” with Tencent trading on 25 times one-year forward earnings, Alibaba at 23 times and Baidu 21 times [he does not hold Netease] “given that their earnings are expected to grow by 25-30 per cent per annum”.

格林伯格指出，“鑑於這些公司的盈利年增速預計可達25%至30%”，它們的估值“並非不合理”，騰訊一年期預期市盈率爲25倍，阿里巴巴爲23倍，而百度爲21倍（他不持有網易股票）。

“These are good businesses at reasonable prices, especially since smartphone usage is increasing and penetration for commerce, advertising and services online is also growing rapidly, providing opportunities for monetisation of the user base,” he adds.

“這些都是價格合理的好公司，尤其是，智能手機的使用在普及，對商業、廣告和線上服務的滲透也迅速擴大，提供了利用用戶羣體賺錢的機遇，”他接着說。

Mr Holden sees other reasons to expect their weighting to rise still further. More than 20 per cent of funds still do not have any exposure to any of these four stocks, with some high-profile managers, such as Aberdeen and First State, eschewing Chinese internet stocks entirely, Mr Holden says.

霍爾登則看到了這些公司的權重預計會進一步提高的其他原因。霍爾登說，逾20%的基金仍沒有配置這四隻股票中的任何一隻，有些名聲顯赫的基金公司，比如安本(Aberdeen)和首域投資(First State)，完全不碰中國互聯網企業的股票。

Moreover, the funds in his database are still, in aggregate, underweight both Tencent and Alibaba compared with their index weighting.

另外，總體而言，他的數據庫裏的基金對騰訊和阿里巴巴的配置比例仍低於這兩家公司的指數權重。

“In the face of impressive price action in Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba from the lows of early February, EM funds may find it more difficult to avoid these stocks going forwards,” he says.

“面對騰訊、百度和阿里巴巴股價較2月初低位的大幅上揚，新興市場基金或許會發現，未來更難避開這些股票，”他說。