政府應準備應對自動化帶來的普遍失業
Hundreds of millions of workers whose jobs are wiped out by automation between now and 2030 will still find gainful employment — but only if governments in the countries most affected embark on massive retraining and infrastructure spending.
從現在起到2030年，數以億計的工人將因自動化失去工作崗位，他們仍將有機會找到有報酬的工作，但前提是那些受影響最大的國家的政府開始展開大規模再培訓和基建投資。That is according to one of the most exhaustive studies yet of the likely effects of artificial intelligence and robotics. The report, from the McKinsey Global Institute, echoes a growing view among economists that the robot future is not entirely bleak for humans, though it may take efforts on a par with the post-second world war Marshall Plan and GI Bill to adapt.
上述說法來自對人工智能和機器人可能產生的影響進行的最詳盡研究之一。麥肯錫全球研究院(MGI)的這份報告呼應了經濟學界日益流行的一個觀點，即未來的機器人時代人類並非全無希望，但要適應這個時代人類可能需要採取如二戰後“馬歇爾計劃”(Marshall Plan)和《退伍軍人法》(GI Bill)那樣的努力。The research arm of McKinsey, the professional services firm, warned earlier this year that about half the tasks that workers perform could already be automated using today’s technology. Few jobs are likely to be handled entirely by machines, but that still pointed to widespread redundancy, if the remaining work is reorganised among fewer workers.
專業服務公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)旗下的這家研究機構今年早些時候曾警告稱，工人們從事的約一半的工作已經可以利用今天的技術實現自動化了。可能完全交由機器處理的工作不多，但如果剩下的工作任務在更少的工人中重新分配的話，仍會產生普遍的失業。
But in a new study issued yesterday outlining the likely real-world impact, MGI suggested that economic growth, the staggered rate of tech adoption and new types of work could more than make up the slack.
但在昨日發佈的闡述自動化可能對現實世界造成的影響的新研究報告中，MGI指出，經濟增長、新技術快速投入應用以及新型工作，有可能會產生更大的正面影響。“There’s a line of thought out there that all the jobs will gone and maybe in the next two decades,” said Michael Chui, a partner at MGI. Those predictions looked too pessimistic, he added, though “the scale of the challenge is really significant”.
MGI合夥人Michael Chui稱：“有一種思路認爲，所有工作崗位都將消失，或許就在未來20年。”他表示，這些預測過於悲觀，儘管“挑戰的確巨大”。
The upheaval in the workforce will be comparable to the industrial revolution, when agricultural workers flooded to cities, the report predicts, though retraining hundreds of millions of workers in the middle of their careers represents an even bigger challenge. Also, countries most affected, including the US and Japan, will need to pump money into infrastructure and construction to take up the slack.
該報告預測，勞動力領域的劇變，將堪比工業革命時期，當時大量農業人口涌入城市，不過，在數以億計的工人的職業生涯中期對他們進行再培訓將是一項更大的挑戰。此外，包括美國和日本在內的受影響最大的國家，將需要向基礎設施和建築領域注入大量資金，以應對衝擊。The consultants estimate that 15 per cent of hours worked today will have been automated by 2030, wiping out 400m jobs. The pace of job-destruction could be double that if companies put artificial intelligence and robotics to use more quickly than expected, with developed countries — where workers earn the most and tech adoption is fastest — seeing a third or more of jobs going.
那些諮詢顧問們估計，如今的15%的工作時間到2030年將實現自動化，從而淘汰4億個工作崗位。如果企業應用人工智能和機器人的速度比預期更快，工作崗位被淘汰的速度或將翻倍。在工人薪酬最高、技術應用最快的發達國家，將有三分之一或更多的就業崗位消失。
