2025年的互聯網將是什麼模樣
As part of its continuing series on the 'Future of the Internet,' the Pew Research Center asked a group of thinkers in science and technology about what the Internet -- turning 25 years old on Wednesday -- might look like in another 10 years.
在其“互聯網的未來”(Future of the Internet)系列調研中，皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)調查了一批科學技術領域的思想家，詢問他們在3月12日年滿25歲的互聯網再過10年可能會是什麼模樣。Their responses speak of a world that is connected deep within homes and well beyond borders. Pew collected the answers into theses buckets of a hopeful and not-so hopeful future (with some other random ideas ginned up, too).
他們的回答描繪了一個深深紮根家庭、遠遠跨越國界的互聯世界。皮尤研究中心把這些答案歸集爲“未來有希望”、“未來不太有希望”的兩類（還有其他一些隨意的想法）。Pew posed an open-ended question asking for predictions about the role of the Internet in people's lives in 2025, and what impact it will have on social, economic and political processes. 'Good and/or bad, what do you expect to be the most significant overall impacts of our uses of the Internet on humanity between now and 2025?' Pew asked. The group polled researchers, entrepreneurs, writers, developers, advocates and others.
皮尤提了一個開放性的問題，要求被訪者預測2025年互聯網在人們生活中的作用，以及它對社會、經濟和政治進程的影響。這個問題是：“不論好與壞，你預計從現在到2025年，我們對互聯網的使用對人類最明顯的整體影響將是什麼？”皮尤調查的對象有研究人員、企業家、作家、軟件開發者、維權人士等。
Here is a selection of responses plucked from the overview of 'Digital Life in 2025.' You can see the entire report with more anecdotes on Pew's site.
以下是選自“2025年的數字生活”(Digital Life in 2025)概述的一組回答。更豐富的報告全文可在皮尤中心的網站上看到。David Clark , senior research scientist at MIT: 'Devices will more and more have their own patterns of communication, their own 'social networks,' which they use to share and aggregate information, and undertake automatic control and activation. More and more, humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices. The Internet (and computer-mediated communication in general) will become more pervasive but less explicit and visible. It will, to some extent, blend into the background of all we do.'
戴維・克拉克(David Clark)，麻省理工學院(MIT)高級研究科學家：終端將越來越多地擁有它們自己的傳播形態，它們自己用於分享、彙總信息的“社交網絡”，並越來越多地從事自動化控制與激活。人類所處的世界，將越來越多地由一組活躍的、相互配合的終端來做出各種決定。互聯網（以及整個以計算機爲媒介的傳播）將變得更加普遍，但更不明顯、更不可見。在某種程度上，它將融入我們所做的一切這個背景當中。Aron Roberts , software developer at the University of California, Berkeley: 'We may well see wearable devices and/or home and workplace sensors that can help us make ongoing lifestyle changes and provide early detection for disease risks, not just disease. We may literally be able to adjust both medications and lifestyle changes on a day-by-day basis or even an hour-by-hour basis, thus enormously magnifying the effectiveness of an ever more understaffed medical delivery system.'
阿倫・羅伯茨(Aron Roberts)，加州大學伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)軟件開發員：很有可能出現能夠幫助我們持續改變生活方式、及早偵測到疾病風險而不只是疾病的可穿戴設備和/或居家、辦公傳感器。我們或許真的能夠按天、甚至是按小時地調整藥物以及生活方式的改變，從而極大地放大一個人員越來越少的醫療服務系統的有效性。David Hughes , who has four decades of experience in digital communications: 'All 7-plus billion humans on this planet will sooner or later be 'connected' to each other and fixed destinations, via the Uber(not Inter)net. That can lead to the diminished power over people's lives within nation-states. When every person on this planet can reach, and communicate two-way, with every other person on this planet, the power of nation-states to control every human inside its geographic boundaries may start to diminish.'
戴維・休斯(David Hughes)，在數字傳播領域擁有40年的經驗：地球上的70多億人口遲早將會通過“Ubernet”（超級網）而非互聯網實現相互連接以及與固定目的地的連接。這可能導致民族國家對人們生活的控制力減弱。當地球上每一個人都可以和地球上其他所有人雙向接觸、溝通時，民族國家控制其地理界線之內每一個人的力量可能就會開始減弱。Hal Varian , chief economist for Google: 'The biggest impact on the world will be universal access to all human knowledge. The smartest person in the world currently could well be stuck behind a plow in India or China. Enabling that person -- and the millions like him or her -- will have a profound impact on the development of the human race. Cheap mobile devices will be available worldwide, and educational tools like the Khan Academy will be available to everyone. This will have a huge impact on literacy and numeracy and will lead to a more informed and more educated world population.'
哈爾・瓦里安(Hal Varian)，谷歌(Google)首席經濟學家：對世界最大的影響將是能夠無處不在地獲取所有人類知識。目前世界上最聰明的人很有可能是束縛在了印度或中國的一張耕犁後面。把機會賦予這個人――以及像他或她的幾百萬人――將對人類的發展產生深刻的影響。世界各地都將能夠買到廉價手機，每一個人都將能夠獲得可汗學院(Khan Academy)之類的教育工具。這將對人們的識字算數水平產生巨大的影響，將使世界人口更有知識、更有文化。Llewellyn Kriel , CEO of TopEditor International Media Services: 'Everything -- every thing -- will be available online with price tags attached. Cyber-terrorism will become commonplace. Privacy and confidentiality of any and all personal will become a thing of the past. Online 'diseases' -- mental, physical, social, addictions (psycho-cyber drugs) -- will affect families and communities and spread willy-nilly across borders. The digital divide will grow and worsen beyond the control of nations or global organizations such as the UN. This will increasingly polarize the planet between haves and have-nots. Global companies will exploit this polarization. Digital criminal networks will become realities of the new frontiers. Terrorism, both by organizations and individuals, will be daily realities. The world will become less and less safe, and only personal skills and insights will protect individuals.'
盧埃林・克里埃爾(Llewellyn Kriel)，TopEditor International Media Services的CEO：所有東西――所有東西――都將在網上明碼標價地出售。網絡恐怖主義將成爲常態。任何人的隱私和機密都將成爲過去時。網絡“疾病”――精神疾病、生理疾病、社交疾病、毒癮（心理-網絡毒品）――將影響到家庭和社區，並肆無忌憚地跨越國界而擴散。數字鴻溝將會擴大並惡化，超出各個國家以及聯合國等國際組織的掌控範圍。這將越來越多地造成有產者和無產者之間的兩極分化。跨國公司將獲利於這種分化。數字犯罪團伙將成爲新疆界的現實。不管是組織化的恐怖主義還是個人恐怖主義，都將成爲每天都存在的現實。世界將變得越來越不安全，只有自己的技能與見識才能保護個人。Paul Babbitt , an associate professor at Southern Arkansas University: 'Governments will become much more effective in using the Internet as an instrument of political and social control. That is, filters will be increasingly valuable and important, and effective and useful filters will be able to charge for their services. People will be more than happy to trade the free-wheeling aspect common to many Internet sites for more structured and regulated environments.'
保羅・巴比特(Paul Babbitt)，南阿肯色大學(Southern Arkansas University)副教授：在將互聯網用作政治和社會控制工具方面，政府的效率將大大提高。也就是說，過濾器將越來越寶貴、越來越重要，有效、有用的過濾器將可以爲其服務收費。人們將非常樂意犧牲很多網站隨心所欲的方面，換取秩序更加井然、監管更加嚴格的環境。Randy Kluver , an associate professor of communication at Texas A&M University: 'The most neglected aspect of the impact is in the geopolitics of the Internet. There are very few experts focused on this, and yet the rise of digital media promises significant disruption to relations between and among states. Some of the really important dimensions include the development of transnational political actors/movements, the rise of the virtual state, the impact of digital diplomacy efforts, the role of information in undermining state privilege (think Wikileaks), and ... the development of cyber-conflict (in both symmetric and asymmetric forms).'
蘭迪・克呂弗(Randy Kluver)，德州農工大學(Texas A&M University)傳播學副教授：最被人忽略的影響在於互聯網的地緣政治方面。關注這方面的專家非常少，但數字媒體的崛起很有可能給國與國關係帶來重大波折。一些非常重要的維度包括跨國政治角色/運動的發展，虛擬政府的興起，數字民主化行動的衝擊，信息在削弱政府特權方面的作用（如維基解密(Wikileaks)），以及……網絡衝突（包括對稱的和非對稱的衝突）的發展。Vint Cerf , Google vice president: 'There will be increased franchise and information sharing. There will be changes to business models to adapt to the economics of digital communication and storage. We may finally get to Internet voting, but only if we have really strong authentication methods available. Privacy must be improved but transparency about what information is retained about users also has to increase. More business will be born online with a global market from the beginning. Massive open online courses will become important revenue streams.'
文特・瑟夫(Vint Cerf)，谷歌副總裁：特許經營和信息共享將會越來越多。商業模式將會改變，以適應數字傳播與存儲的經濟學。最後我們可能會有網絡選舉，但條件是擁有非常可靠的認證方法。隱私必須得到改進，但有關已獲取用戶信息的透明度也必須提高。越來越多的企業將是在網上誕生，一開始就瞄準全球市場。大衆化網絡公開課將成爲重要的收入來源。John Markoff, senior Science writer at the New York Times: 'What happens the first time you answer the phone and hear from your mother or a close friend, but it's actually not, and instead, it's a piece of malware that is designed to social engineer you. What kind of a world will we have crossed over into? I basically began as an Internet utopian (think John Perry Barlow), but I have since realized that the technical and social forces that have been unleashed by the microprocessor hold out the potential of a very dystopian world that is also profoundly inegalitarian. I often find myself thinking, 'Who said it would get better?''
約翰・馬爾科夫(John Markoff)，《紐約時報》(New York Times)資深科學撰稿人：當你第一次接電話聽到母親或好友的聲音、其實那不是母親或好友而是一款旨在對你展開社會化工程攻擊(social engineering)的惡意軟件時，會發生什麼事情？我們所跨入的將是一個什麼樣的世界？最初我基本上是一個對互聯網存在烏托邦式幻想的人（想想約翰・佩裏・巴洛(John Perry Barlow)），但我後來意識到，微處理器釋放的技術力量和社會力量有可能造就一個反面烏托邦的、極不平等的世界。我經常不由自主地想：“誰說世界會越來越好的？”You can see the entire report with plenty more anecdotes on Pew's site. What do you think the Internet will be like in 10 years -- flowing invisibly in the background like electricity, a tangible and omnipresent part of every day life, something else? Tell us what you think in the comments.
擁有更多豐富細節的報告全文可以在皮尤研究中心的網站上看到。你認爲10年過後的互聯網會是什麼樣子的？是像電流一樣在幕後無形地流動，還是成爲日常生活中看得見摸得着而又無處不在的一部分？還是其他什麼樣子？請在評論中寫下你的想法。
