從智能手機到智能手錶的這些年
For much of the developed world, 2013 marked the beginning of a new technological era. More than half the people in North America, the UK, Japan, South Korea and the Nordic countries now own a smartphone, market researchers have concluded. By next year, the rest of western Europe will join that mobile majority.
對許多發達國家來說，2013年標誌着一個科技新時代的開端。市場調查人員得出結論稱，如今在北美、英國、日本、韓國和北歐等地，一半以上的人擁有智能手機。等到來年，西歐其餘國家也將加入這一陣營。The rise of the smartphone has already created new winners and losers in the consumer electronics market. According to a November estimate by analysts at US investment bank Canaccord Genuity, Apple and Samsung captured a “remarkable” 109 per cent (correct) of handset industry profits in the third quarter of 2013, a figure that makes sense only if the losses suffered by suppliers such as BlackBerry, Nokia and Taiwan’s HTC are counted as “negative profits”.
智能手機的崛起讓消費電子市場誕生了新的贏家和輸家。美國投行Canaccord Genuity的分析師在11月份給出的估計數字顯示，2013年第三季度，蘋果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)“不可思議”地斬獲了手機行業109%的利潤。這一數字之所以說得通，是因爲黑莓(BlackBerry)、諾基亞(Nokia)以及臺灣宏達電(HTC)等供應商遭受的虧損被算作了“負利潤”。But it is not just their mobile rivals’ earnings that Apple’s iPhone and Samsung’s Galaxy devices have gobbled up. Cameras, music and radio players, alarm clocks, navigation systems, even torches and compasses are now absorbed into a glowing screen.
不過，蘋果iPhone和三星Galaxy設備所吞噬的可不止是移動領域競爭對手們的利潤。如今，不僅相機、音樂與電臺播放器、鬧鐘、導航系統，就連手電筒和指南針也被整合進這些發光的屏幕中。
Yet as smartphones increase in sophistication, they are also enabling new categories of gadget that harness their always-on connection, sensors and processing power.
儘管如此，隨着智能手機變得日益複雜，它們也催生出一系列能夠利用它們的“永遠在線”網絡連接、傳感器和處理能力的新電子產品。Wearable technology, “smart home” devices such as lights and security systems, fitness trackers and even toys are all orbiting the smartphone, making connected devices one of 2013’s hottest gadget trends.
可穿戴技術、燈光與安保系統等“智能家居”設備、健身追蹤器乃至玩具，都開始圍着智能手機“打轉”。可連接設備(connected devices)由此成爲2013年最“火”的電子產品潮流之一。As innovation in smartphones themselves starts to slow down, the platform that they are enabling is just getting started – even if analysts say mass-market adoption is still years away.
智能手機自身的創新速度開始放緩，但它們所催生的平臺的發展纔剛剛起步——儘管分析師表示這一平臺還需數年時間才能爲大衆市場所接受。“The nice thing about the internet of things is it’s not monolithic,” says Rob Chandhok, president of Qualcomm’s interactive platforms division, who predicts a “Cambrian explosion” of smart devices. “I expect wearables to be on a very fast cadence as form factors fall out.”
高通(Qualcomm)交互平臺部門總裁羅伯•錢德霍克(Rob Chandhok)說：“物聯網的美好之處就在於它不是一元化的。”他預言智能設備會出現“寒武紀大爆發”。“我預計，隨着各種形態的智能產品逐漸問世，可穿戴設備將呈現飛速發展。”Pebble, one of the best-known independent makers of smartwatches, which raised $10m on US-based crowdfunding platform Kickstarter last year, said in November that it had sold 190,000 watches in total – impressive for a start-up but hardly the sort of volume that would have Apple rushing its rumoured iWatch to market.
名氣頗高的獨立智能手錶製造商Pebble去年在美國羣募平臺Kickstarter上募資1000萬美元。11月份，該公司宣佈，它已總計售出19萬塊手錶。就一家初創企業而言，這是一個令人讚歎的銷售數字；但這一數字還不足以迫使蘋果急忙將其傳聞中的iWatch投放到市場。As with most smartwatches, the Pebble mainly acts as a way to notify the wearer of incoming messages or other alerts from a Bluetooth-tethered smartphone.
如大多數智能手錶一樣，Pebble的主要功能是：接收藍牙連接的智能手機收到的信息或其他提示，將之通報給佩戴者。The September launch of Samsung’s Galaxy Gear marked a significant moment for the smartwatch market. Although the device has had mixed reviews, the endorsement of the form factor by the South Korean electronics group – coupled with persistent rumours that Google, Microsoft and others are all working on similar watches – signalled that smart watches may not be a niche for much longer. Even Casio’s G-Shock now has a Bluetooth connection to receive message notifications – and has the benefit of actually looking like a watch.
三星9月份舉行的Galaxy Gear發佈會標誌着智能手錶市場的一個重要時刻。儘管該產品得到的評價褒貶不一，但這家韓國電子集團對此類可穿戴設備的支持——再加上不斷有傳言稱，谷歌(Google)、微軟(Microsoft)等公司也都在研發類似的手錶——暗示着，可能過不了太久，智能手錶就不再是一種小衆產品了。就連卡西歐(Casio)的G-Shock現在也有藍牙連接，用以接收信息通知——此外它還有個優勢，那就是看起來的確像塊手錶。At the same time as the Galaxy Gear was unveiled, Qualcomm launched the Toq, a smartwatch that uses its Mirasol screen to showcase the potential of the technology.
就在Galaxy Gear除去面紗的同時，高通推出了Toq——這款智能手錶的屏幕使用Mirasol顯示技術，高通試圖以此來展示這項技術的潛力。Unlike the Gear, which needs charging every day and does not keep its watch face lit all the time, the Toq’s screen is always on and the battery lasts for several days.
Toq比Galaxy Gear更勝一籌的地方在於：Gear每天都得充電，屏幕也不是一直亮着；而Toq的屏幕不但一直亮着，電池續航時間更是長達數日。“Being able to do things at a glance is very powerful,” says Mr Chandhok. “I don’t want to replicate the smartphone, but I do want to use it to raise things above the noise level. Notification really only works when it’s at a glance.”
“能夠掃一眼就解決問題是非常有用的。”錢德霍克說，“我不想複製智能手機，但我真的想用它來着重提示一下要做的事。通知真的只有在掃一眼就看到的時候才起作用。”But Robert Brunner, partner at the design agency Ammunition Group, which works on products such as Beats by Dr Dre headphones, says the appearance of these devices is just as important as what they do.
但設計公司Ammunition Group的合夥人羅伯特•布倫納(Robert Brunner)認爲，這些設備的外觀與它們的功能同等重要。Ammunition Group設計的產品包括“Beats By Dr. Dre”耳機等。“We are in the fashion business,” Mr Brunner said at a recent GigaOm conference in San Francisco. “The things that people carry and use define us almost as much as the clothes we wear . . . Wearable technology needs to understand fashion.”
“我們身處時尚行業之中，”布倫納在近日於舊金山舉辦的GigaOm大會上說，“我們所所攜帶和使用的東西對我們的影響程度，幾乎與我們穿的衣服一樣……可穿戴技術需要懂時尚。”A similar challenge lies in the smart home market, where devices such as the internet fridge are solutions searching for a problem.
智能家居市場也存在同樣的挑戰，像網絡冰箱這樣的設備純屬“沒事找事”。“The magic that we all love of being connected and the things that it does is going, going, gone,” Mr Brunner says. “At some point, having running water in your house was amazing. It’s no longer just about this magic, it’s about what it’s actually doing in our lives.”
“我們都喜愛連通性，它就像魔術。但這種魔術連同它帶來的東西正逐漸過時。”布倫納說，“過去，家裏有自來水都是一件神奇的事。但今天，神奇本身已不再重要，真正重要的是它能對我們的生活起到什麼實際幫助。”Dozens of new devices have emerged in recent months, from smart locks such as August and Lockitron, which open with a wave of a smartphone, to Philips’ Hue lightbulbs, which can be set to match the colour of a photo from a mobile app, as well as other features.
近幾個月來，有幾十種新設備相繼問世，從August和Lockitron智能鎖（利用智能手機發出的電磁波開啓），到飛利浦(Philips)的Hue燈泡（該燈泡所發光芒的顏色，可被設定爲與手機應用中圖片的顏色相同），以及其他特色產品。Some are aimed at security-conscious folk: Dropcam’s $200 Pro camera constantly monitors its owner’s home, alerting them to movement after they’ve left the house and letting them watch a live video feed. SmartThings sells kits that enable garage doors to be locked remotely or sends notifications to a phone when the kids get home from school. Large retailers such as Home Depot, Staples and Lowe’s are devoting more and more floor space to such products, even though it is unclear how large the market for them is today.
有些產品瞄準的是那些關注安全的人羣：Dropcam售價200美元的Pro相機，能持續監視用戶的住所，在用戶離家後向他們通報家中的動態，並能讓用戶觀看關於家中動態的實況視頻。SmartThings銷售的產品能遠程鎖上車庫大門，還能在孩子放學到家時給家長的手機發送通知。家得寶(Home Depot)、史泰博(Staples)和Lowe's等大型零售商，正將越來越多的店面空間劃撥給此類產品，儘管人們還不清楚現在它們的市場到底有多大。“It takes time for people to embrace connectivity,” says Tony Fadell, chief executive of Nest, whose “learning” thermostat and app-enabled smoke alarm have attained an Apple-like cult following among early adopters of the “connected home”.
Nest公司首席執行官託尼•法代爾(Tony Fadell)說：“人們接受連通性是需要一些時間的。”該公司的“learning”智能溫控器以及支持移動應用的煙霧報警器，已得到“聯網家居”嚐鮮者的追捧，其中一些擁躉的熱情與“果粉”無異。“Most people are just jamming things together because that’s the fastest thing to do. They don’t rethink the experience from top to bottom . . . Just because it can be connected doesn’t mean it should,” he says.
他說：“大多數人只是把各種東西硬連在一起，因爲這是最快捷的方法。他們不會自上而下地反思整個體驗……一樣東西能與網絡連在一起並不意味着它就應該與網絡連在一起。”Ben Wood, analyst at tech consultancy CCS Insight, sees great potential in smartwatches, but says the connected home is “just too hard for the man on the street right now”. The plethora of single-purpose “point solutions” is still a long way from the joined-up vision touted at trade shows, he says.
技術諮詢公司CCS Insight的分析師本•伍德(Ben Wood)認爲，智能手錶蘊含着巨大的潛力。但他表示，“現階段而言，普通人還很難實現”聯網家居。他說，大量單一用途的“點解決方案”距商展上廠商兜售的整合後願景仍相去甚遠。Amanda Peyton, co-founder of Grand St, a marketplace for creative technology, admits that the “independent, creative, alternative electronics” market is worth just a fraction of the $1tn consumer electronics market today.
創新科技產品銷售網站Grand St的聯合創始人阿曼達•佩頓(Amanda Peyton)承認，“獨立、創新、另類電子產品”市場在今天價值1萬億美元的消費類電子產品市場中僅佔一小部分。“But it is absolutely the fastest growing of any sector,” she says. “Over the next few years, you will see this section of the market just growing enormously. It’s going to cut into some of the existing consumer electronics market, but it’s going to grow the whole thing overall.”
“但它絕對是增長最快的板塊，”她說，“今後幾年，你將看到這塊市場呈現巨大的增長。它會蠶食部分現有的消費類電子產品市場，但同時也會帶動整個市場實現整體發展。”Wearables and other “smart” devices might not overtake the smartphone market any time soon – but they promise to be a much livelier arena for innovation in the coming years.
可穿戴設備和其他“智能”設備或許不會在短時間內趕超智能手機市場，但在未來幾年裏，它們有望成爲一個活力遠超後者的舞臺，爲人們展示各種創新。
