PC的身份危機
The question "What is a PC?" has been bemusing analysts and industry observers since long before the introduction of the iPad -- but especially since. The answer is not so simple. In some ways, it's a question of mere rhetoric. But when it comes to analyzing markets and companies, it becomes a lot more than that.
“什麼是PC？”——雖然這個問題早在iPad問世之前就已經讓分析人士和業內觀察人士困擾多時，但iPad的問世使他們的困擾陡然加深。這個問題並不是簡簡單單就能回答得了的。從某種程度上講，討論它只是浪費口舌，但是要想分析市場行情和公司業績，這個問題又非同小可。Tablets and smartphones have been cutting into PC sales for years. That's because for many people, the newer gadgets do everything they had previously counted on PCs -- including laptops -- for: email, Web browsing, watching video. But in general, they don't do everything that powerful PCs can do or not quite as well, such as video editing, hardcore gaming, programming. Many consumers still want or need a laptop or a desktop machine.
多年來，平板電腦和智能手機一直在擠佔PC的銷售市場。這是因爲，對於很多人來說，這些新潮而精巧的小機器已經具備他們需要的所有PC（包括筆記本電腦）功能，比如收發郵件、瀏覽網頁、觀看視頻。但是總體上講，它們有些功能還無法與強大的PC相匹敵，比如視頻剪輯、發燒遊戲和編程。很多消費者依然想要、或者需要一臺筆記本或臺式機。It might sound silly at first to define a smartphone as a "PC." But lots of people who otherwise might have purchased a PC have opted instead for a smartphone, since it does everything they in particular need from a computing device. That's even more true of tablets -- and it will be increasingly so as the differences between tablets, even phones, and PCs narrow. Soon enough, many of us will be carrying the equivalent of a PC around with us to use as a tablet when we're mobile, and then plugging it in at home, attaching it to a keyboard, and using it as a fully functional PC.
把智能手機定義爲“PC”乍聽之下或許有些愚蠢。但是很多潛在的PC買家之所以沒有買PC，而是買了智能手機，就是因爲他們需要計算設備實現的所有功能，智能手機都已經具備。至於平板電腦，那就更不用說了——而且它還會越來越受歡迎，因爲平板電腦同PC的差異一直在縮小（甚至手機也是如此）。用不了多久，我們當中就會有很多人出門帶着PC的替代品當平板電腦使，回到家後就把它插上電源、接上鍵盤，這樣它就變成了一臺功能齊全的PC。
Hardware and software makers may have helped blur the distinction. Microsoft's (MSFT) new Windows 8 operating system can be operated like a traditional desktop PC or via a tablet-like interface that is compatible with touch and gestures. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS, meanwhile, has adopted some features of iOS, the operating system powering millions of iPads, iPods, and iPhones, though the company doesn't currently sell any touchscreen enabled desktops or laptops. And beleaguered hardware manufacturers have adopted touchscreen technology and ultrathin packages that draw from both tablets and laptops. These so-called convertible laptops, like Lenovo's Ideapad Yoga, double as both because their screens can be flipped back and forth.
平板電腦與PC的界限之所以一天天變得模糊，硬件和軟件製造商或許也起到了推波助瀾的作用。微軟（Microsoft）新推出的Windows 8操作系統既可以安裝在傳統的筆記本PC上，也可以安裝在與手勢觸控兼容的平板界面上。蘋果（Apple）的Mac OS操作系統也融入了iOS的一些特性，而iOS是讓數以百萬計的iPad、iPod和iPhone發揮強大功能的操作系統。不過，目前蘋果公司尚未推出任何可觸屏的筆記本或臺式機。硬件製造商在競爭對手的圍追堵截下則紛紛借鑑平板電腦和筆記本，採用觸屏科技和超薄封裝。這些所謂的翻轉本，比如聯想（Lenovo）的Ideapad Yoga，既可以做筆記本，也可以當平板電腦，因爲它們的屏幕可以360度翻轉。For the moment, the PC is confused. Consider how market researchers and stock analysts often measure the computer market. Last year, the research firm Canalys declared that Apple had become the world's largest maker of PCs. But that was only because the firm included tablets (which it called "pads") in its findings. "Pads," Canalys said, made up about a quarter of all sales of PCs.
現在，人們對PC的概念已是一頭霧水。想想市場研究公司和證券分析師是怎麼衡量計算機市場行情的吧。去年，市場研究公司Canalys宣佈，蘋果已成爲全球最大的PC製造商，但這只是把平板電腦（也就是它所說的“pad”）算進PC中的結果。Canalys表示，“Pad”的銷量佔所有PC銷量的四分之一左右。Not surprisingly, the Canalys report got lots of attention and stirred much debate. Harry McCracken of Time magazine took the opportunity to poll his readers to find out what they thought. He added his own analysis and decided that a device is a PC if it meets the following criteria: It run apps; it is general-purpose (and not meant for singular uses, like a game console); it is meant to be used by one person at a time.
不出意外，Canalys的報告引起了很大的關注，也引發了一場熱議。《時代》週刊（Time ）編輯哈里?麥克拉肯藉機發起了投票，調查讀者的想法。他還附上了自己的分析，認爲一臺設備如果符合下述條件，就可以稱爲PC：第一，它能運行應用程序；第二，它具備多種用途（而不是像遊戲機這樣的專用機器）；第三，它適合個人使用。He then took a leap and said a PC can be "any size," meaning smartphones can count. But that assumption distorts the market for the simple reason that most people who own smartphones also own a PC or a tablet. Similarly, there are those who buy a tablet in addition to a PC, and others who buy them instead of a new PC. Granular analyses are needed to get a full handle on how and to what degree both tablets and phones are supplanting what most people think of as traditional PCs, and to what degree such devices are purchased as supplements to PCs. (Macs of course are included in the definition of PC, unless it's clear from context that they're being differentiated from machines running Windows.)
他接着做出了大膽的假設，說PC可以是“任何尺寸”，也就是說智能手機也可以算作PC的一種。但是這個假設扭曲了市場。原因很簡單，那就是大多數智能手機用戶同時也擁有PC或者平板電腦。同樣，有些人買了PC之後也還是會買平板電腦，還有些人PC用舊了也不去換新的，而是去買平板電腦。我們還需要進行粒化分析（粒就是指一些個體通過不分明關係、相似關係、鄰近關係或功能關係等所形成的塊。這種處理信息的過程．稱信息粒化。——譯註），以瞭解平板電腦和手機究竟是以何種方式、在何種程度上擠佔傳統PC的市場，以及有多少人會購買這類設備來補充PC的侷限。（蘋果機當然也是PC的一種，除非有什麼前提可以明確表明它們與Windows系統的機器有所不同。）Since the Canalys report was issued, the confusion has only deepened both because researchers define the market differently and because the gulf between PCs and tablets is quickly narrowing. That confusion sometimes makes it hard to measure various market trends. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report on search-engine use in January had to rely on numbers solely from (traditional) PCs because comparable data on mobile searches wasn't available. Is it even meaningful to note that searches on the four major search services -- Google (GOOG), Bing (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and Ask -- rose by 9% in January from the previous year, when mobile data isn't included? "Unfortunately we do not have mobile query data to see the full picture for query growth," BofA's note read. So the report threw in the fact that some search advertisers estimated that mobile searches made up about 15% of the total.
自從Canalys的報告發布後，人們對PC的概念更加困惑了。一方面是因爲不同的研究人員對市場的定義不同，另一方面是因爲PC和平板電腦的區別在迅速縮小。這種概念上的含混不清使我們難以估測各種各樣的市場趨勢。美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）今年1月發佈的搜索引擎使用報告只有唯一的一個數據來源，那就是（傳統）PC，因爲無法獲取移動設備搜索引擎的參照數據。如果不把移動設備的數據算進去，就算得出結論，宣稱今年1月四大搜索引擎——谷歌（Google）、必應（Bing）、雅虎（Yahoo）和Ask——的搜索數量同比增長了9%，又有什麼意義呢？“不幸的是，我們沒有移動設備的搜索數據，無法反映搜索數量增長的全景。”美銀在註解中解釋。於是，這份報告附帶地提到了一個事實：據一些搜索引擎廣告商估計，移動設備的搜索數量約佔搜索總量的15%。The distinction between PCs and mobile devices remains important for analyzing other allied industries as well. The market for chips that run mobile devices is quite different from the market for chips that run PCs. A Morningstar report this month noted that chipmaker AMD's (AMD) recent troubles are in part due to the "headwinds" it faces thanks to "rapid tablet adoption." Meanwhile, Intel (INTC), which is dominant in desktop PCs, is coming under increasing pressure to show results in its mobile chip sales.
有效區分PC和移動設備對於分析其他配套行業也很重要。移動設備的芯片市場和PC的芯片市場區別很大。晨星公司（Morningstar）這個月發佈的一份報告表明，芯片製造商AMD最近之所以麻煩纏身，部分原因在於“平板電腦迅速普及”帶來的困境。無獨有偶，在PC臺式機市場佔據統治地位的英特爾（Intel），爲了在移動設備的芯片市場做出一番業績，也面臨着日益沉重的壓力。But when looking at the market as a whole, sans all these complicating factors, the trend is clear: Over the five years leading up to the release of the iPad two years ago, sales of traditional PCs and laptops grew anywhere between 5% and 15% a year, depending on the year and data source. Last year, sales declined about 5%, and a similar decline is forecast for next year. Over the 2012 holiday gift season, PC sales declined by between 6% and 10% over the previous year (again, depending on whose data you believe), even as the economy was recovering. Tablet sales leaped by between 60% and 80% during the season. Lots of people are buying tablets and forgoing traditional PCs.
但是如果我們把這些錯綜複雜的要素一概剔除，縱觀市場全局，那麼市場的趨勢就顯而易見了：兩年前，iPad問世。在此之前的五年時間裏，傳統PC和筆記本的年銷量增長在5%和15%之間，具體的增長率取決於年份和數據來源。去年，傳統PC和筆記本的銷量下跌了5%，預計明年還會有類似幅度的下跌。2012年全年的節假旺季，儘管經濟在復甦，PC的銷量依然同比下跌了6%到10%（具體跌幅還是取決於大家各自採信的數據來源）。同一時期，平板電腦的銷量暴漲了60%到80%。很多人開始購買平板電腦，而對傳統PC棄之不顧。That trend will continue. Over the coming months, more-powerful hybrid and convertible tablets will be coming on the market, and it seems clear that in just a few years time the differences between tablets and PCs will be negligible, at least from a consumer's point of view, though there will still be a market for traditional PCs for certain computing tasks.
這個趨勢還會繼續下去。接下來的幾個月，更強大的滑蓋式、翻轉式平板電腦將陸續上市。顯然，不出幾年，平板電腦和PC之間的區別將變得微乎其微，至少在消費者的眼中是如此。當然，傳統PC也還是會有市場，因爲人們需要用它完成特定的計算任務。
