特朗普中東政策將損及盟友約旦

Of all the acts of political vandalism Donald Trump has committed during his first year in the White House, among the most gratuitous was his decision last month to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. It thereby foreclosed on any possible two-state outcome to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in which the occupied Arab east of the holy city would become the capital of an independent Palestine.

唐納德特朗普(Donald Trump)入主白宮第一年做出的所有政治破壞舉動中，最沒有道理的行爲之一是他上月決定承認耶路撒冷爲以色列首都。此舉排除了通過“兩國方案”解決巴以衝突的可能性，在可能達成的方案中，以色列侵佔的耶路撒冷東部將成爲巴勒斯坦獨立建國後的首都。

East Jerusalem, captured by Israel in the 1967 Six Day war and then illegally annexed, is at the religiously combustible core of a conflict that, although recently eclipsed by the ferocity of the civil war in Syria and the struggle against Isis, risks being reignited.

以色列在1967年的“六日戰爭”中奪取了東耶路撒冷並將之非法吞併，眼下一場衝突可能再度爆發，而東耶路撒冷是其中充斥着宗教緊張氣息的核心，只不過近期人們被敘利亞內戰和打擊“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)戰爭的激烈局勢吸引了注意力。

But President Trump’s Jerusalem decision also compromises a fragile western ally, Jordan, which has been a pivot of regional stability.

但特朗普關於耶路撒冷的決定還將損害一個脆弱的西方盟友、對地區穩定有着至關重要的作用的約旦。

Jordan’s Hashemite monarchy, in its current incarnation of King Abdullah, is descended from the house of the Prophet Mohammed. In Muslim belief, the prophet rose to heaven from the Dome of the Rock, which is inside the old city’s Haram ash-Sharif, or Noble Sanctuary, containing al-Aqsa mosque and known to Jews as Temple Mount. By tradition as well as by Jordan’s 1994 peace treaty with Israel, the Hashemites are the guardians of Jerusalem’s Islamic (and Christian) holy places. Any change in the city’s status strikes at their legitimacy. That is serious enough, but it is not all.

約旦哈希姆王室是先知穆罕默德家族的後裔，現任君主是阿卜杜拉國王(King Abdullah)。在穆斯林的信仰中，先知穆罕默德從圓頂清真寺(Dome of the Rock)昇天，這座清真寺位於耶路撒冷老城的哈蘭阿沙立府(Haram ash-Sharif)內，哈蘭阿沙立府亦稱神聖禁地(Noble Sanctuary)，猶太人稱爲聖殿山(Temple Mount)，裏面還坐落有阿克薩清真寺( al-Aqsa mosque)。根據傳統以及約旦與以色列在1994年簽訂的和平條約，哈希姆家族是耶路撒冷伊斯蘭（和基督教）聖地的守護人。耶路撒冷地位的任何變化都會影響他們的合法性。這已經足夠嚴重了，但還不止於此。

The majority of Jordan’s population is Palestinian, refugees from the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948 and 1967. Hardline irredentists in the rightwing Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, emboldened by US recognition of Jerusalem, are pushing to annex big chunks of the Palestinian West Bank colonised by Jewish settlers. They are also reviving the old “Jordan is Palestine” mantra, insisting the Palestinians already have a state: Jordan. For Jordan this is existential. Its leaders fear Israel will trigger a third exodus of Palestinians across the Jordan river, and sabotage the already fragile demographic balance of the kingdom.

約旦人口以巴勒斯坦人爲主，他們是1948年和1967年阿以戰爭中的難民。本雅明內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)領導的以色列右翼政府中強硬的民族統一主義者受到美國承認耶路撒冷爲以色列首都的鼓舞，正推動吞併被猶太定居者殖民化的巴勒斯坦西岸的大片土地。他們還重彈“約旦即巴勒斯坦”的老調，堅稱巴勒斯坦人已經擁有了一個國家：約旦。對於約旦而言，這事關存亡。約旦領導人擔心以色列將觸發巴勒斯坦人第三次跨過約旦河撤離，破壞約旦本就脆弱的人口平衡。

After the Trump move on Jerusalem, King Abdullah told the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the 57-member umbrella group of Muslim countries, that a consensual solution to Jerusalem was “the key to ending the historical conflict in the Middle East”. The OIC, founded half a century ago in response to an arson attack on al-Aqsa mosque, responded to the US president’s act of political arson by declaring East Jerusalem the capital of Palestine. Empty rhetoric Mostly. But it contains within it the kernel of a new religious war over Jerusalem for any extremist who wants to grasp it.

在特朗普承認耶路撒冷爲以色列首都後，阿卜杜拉國王告訴有57個成員國的穆斯林國家組織伊斯蘭合作組織(Organisation of Islamic Cooperation)，就耶路撒冷問題達成協商一致的解決方案是“結束中東歷史衝突的關鍵”。伊斯蘭合作組織是半個世紀以前爲迴應阿克薩清真寺遭到縱火襲擊的事件而成立的。針對美國總統的政治縱火行爲，該組織的迴應是宣佈東耶路撒冷爲巴勒斯坦首都。這不過是空洞的言辭？基本上是。但對於任何有心利用的極端主義者而言，其中包含着圍繞耶路撒冷爆發一場新宗教戰爭的要點。

While Mr Trump’s erratic behaviour has been well charted, a puzzle remains: the position of Saudi Arabia, under the de facto rule of its young crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, or MbS. The Saudis criticised the US Jerusalem move, but sent low-ranking officials to the OIC summit to discuss it.

儘管特朗普的古怪行爲有跡可循，但仍存在一個疑問：在年輕王儲穆罕默德本薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)實際統治下的沙特阿拉伯抱着什麼立場？沙特批評美國承認耶路撒冷爲以色列首都的決定，卻只派出低級別官員參加伊斯蘭合作組織討論此事的峯會。

The Saudis put pressure on Jordan to do the same. But King Abdullah went anyway. Jordan also voted in condemnation of the US decision at the UN General Assembly, risking American reprisals — in Jordan’s case, vital aid worth $1.2bn last year. Jordan says it received only two-thirds of the help it needs to look after the roughly 1m Syrian refugees inside its borders.

沙特向約旦施壓，要求後者也這麼做。阿卜杜拉國王卻還是參加了峯會。約旦還在聯合國大會(UN General Assembly)上投票支持譴責美國的決定，冒着可能被美國報復的風險——去年約旦接收到的重要援助價值12億美元。約旦表示，該國僅獲得了安置該國境內約100萬敘利亞難民所需援助的三分之二。

Abdullah’s father, the late King Hussein — the gold-standard of west-leaning Arab moderation of his time, who attended 45 clandestine meetings with Israel in his search for peace — faced similar quandaries. King Hussein knew the Arabs’ defeat was likely in the 1967 war but took part anyway, losing the West Bank and East Jerusalem to Israel. He stood apart from the US-led coalition to eject Saddam Hussein from Kuwait in 1990-91, knowing he faced ostracism and a period of penury.

阿卜杜拉的父親、已故的侯賽因國王(King Hussein)曾經面臨類似窘境。侯賽因國王是當時典型的親西方的阿拉伯溫和派，他爲了尋求和平曾45次參加與以色列的祕密會晤。1967年的戰爭中侯賽因國王知道阿拉伯國家可能要輸，但仍然參戰，讓以色列奪走了西岸和東耶路撒冷。他沒有參與1990年到1991年間以美國爲首的盟軍將薩達姆侯賽因(Saddam Hussein)趕出科威特的戰爭，自知將被孤立並面臨一段赤貧期。

All of this was trumped by the need for legitimacy. After all, his own grandfather (the present king’s great-grandfather) the arch-pragmatist King Abdullah I, was assassinated at al-Aqsa mosque in 1951 after a campaign accusing him of collaboration with Zionist Israel.

所有這一切都抵不過對合法性的需要。畢竟，他自己的祖父（現任國王的曾祖父）——務實主義者阿卜杜拉一世(King Abdullah I)在一場指責他與猶太復國主義的以色列合作的運動後，於1951年在阿克薩清真寺被暗殺。

Some in Jordan and elsewhere in the Arab world now believe Saudi Arabia is colluding with the US to impose a blatantly pro-Israel solution on the Palestinians — and that Jerusalem is the first instalment. MbS has met regularly with Mr Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, mandated by the US president to deliver the “ultimate deal”. Based on what is dribbling out from stunned Palestinians, this would amount to supra-municipal government in disconnected cantons of the West Bank, with the town of Abu Dis on the edge of Jerusalem as a “capital”. This ticking bomb of territory might even be attached to an unwilling and vulnerable Jordan.

在約旦以及阿拉伯世界的其他地方，現在有一些人認爲，沙特正在與美國勾結，強行讓巴勒斯坦人接受一個公然親以色列的解決方案——而耶路撒冷是計劃中的第一階段。沙特王儲本薩勒曼定期與特朗普的女婿賈裏德庫什納(Jared Kushner)會晤，後者被特朗普委任達成“最終協議”。根據震驚的巴勒斯坦人陸續透露的情況，這將相當於在西岸彼此不相連接的地區建立超城市政府當局(supra-municipal government)，把位於耶路撒冷邊緣的阿布迪斯作爲“首都”。這塊定時炸彈般的領土甚至可能附屬於不情願且脆弱的約旦。

This, a dangerous fantasy, might actually be attempted under President Trump. There is suspicion that the House of Saud even wants to take oversight of Jerusalem’s Islamic sites from the Hashemites — MbS’s grandfather took the holy cities of Mecca and Medina from them by conquest in 1925. But legitimacy matters. Saudi monarchs prefer to style themselves custodians of the holy places rather than kings, and Jerusalem might be a step too far.

這是一個危險的幻想，實際上他們可能在特朗普的領導下進行嘗試。人們懷疑沙特王室甚至想要從哈希姆家族那裏拿走對耶路撒冷伊斯蘭聖地的守護權——本薩勒曼的祖父在1925年從他們手裏奪走了麥加和麥地那聖城。但合法性至關重要。沙特君主更喜歡把自己稱爲聖地的守護者而不是國王，而搶佔耶路撒冷可能太過分了。

King Abdullah, moreover, is a moderate leader in a region where mainstream Sunni leadership has almost died out. MbS says he wants to revive it, but it looks at present as though he is helping undermine one of its rare exemplars.

此外，在一個主流遜尼派的領導力差不多已經消失的地區，阿卜杜拉國王是一個溫和的領導人。本薩勒曼說他希望重振這種領導力，但現在看起來，他卻在幫助削弱這種領導力爲數不多的典範之一。