美中應聯手遏制朝鮮

As he was leaving the Oval Office, Barack Obama warned Donald Trump that nuclear-armed North Korea would be his most immediate foreign policy challenge. That looked prescient on Monday, when Pyongyang fired five ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan.

巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在離開白宮之際警告唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)，擁有核武器的朝鮮將是他面臨的迫在眉睫的外交政策挑戰。本週一，當朝鮮向日本海發射了5枚彈道導彈的時候，這個警告看起來具有先見之明。

North Korea is a country with bad cards, which it plays well. For decades, it has terrorised its neighbours and their allies into negotiations and concessions, while continuing to act with bad faith and impunity. Mr Trump’s most visible response so far has been a tweet casting aspersions on the dictatorship’s military capabilities. One hopeful sign, however, is that the US president seems to understand that China is the key to reining in this recalcitrant Stalinist dynasty.

朝鮮是一個擅長打好一手壞牌的國家，幾十年來，它威脅鄰國及其盟友，迫使它們與其展開談判並做出讓步，而自己在不受懲罰的情況下繼續背信棄義。特朗普迄今最公開的迴應是在Twitter上諷刺朝鮮的軍事能力。然而，一個有希望的跡象是，美國總統似乎明白，中國是遏制這個桀驁難馴的斯大林主義王朝的關鍵。

North Korea has been a Chinese client state for decades, but Beijing is struggling to restrain the regime. This week’s launches were timed to coincide with the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp parliament, sending a message to Beijing that the youthful dictator Kim Jong Un is unhappy with his main benefactor.

朝鮮幾十年來一直是中國的附庸國，但北京方面很難約束平壤政權。本週朝鮮發射導彈，在時間安排上與中國的橡皮圖章議會的年度會議湊熱鬧，此舉向北京方面傳遞的信息是，年輕的獨裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)對其主要恩主感到不滿。

Beijing’s patience is wearing thin. After years of prevarication it has blocked imports of North Korean coal for the rest of this year, prompting a rare outburst of anti-Chinese rhetoric in North Korean state media.

北京方面的耐心逐漸耗盡。在多年推諉搪塞之後，中國在今年剩餘時間不再從朝鮮進口煤炭，這促使朝鮮官方媒體出現了罕見的反華言論。

China’s leaders must do more to contain Pyongyang. The latest missile tests have only strengthened the rationale behind Seoul’s decision to deploy a US-built and US-operated missile shield in its territory. This is a decision that has angered China, which argues that the system’s radar will see deep into Chinese territory and will shift the strategic balance in the region. Beijing has responded by introducing undeclared economic sanctions against South Korea and its companies, many of which rely heavily on the Chinese market for their profits. These actions may contravene World Trade Organization rules, and have been ineffective in any case. China’s leaders should know better: what country, faced with the possibility of annihilation, would choose short-term economic gain over the strongest defence it can muster?

中國領導人必須採取更多措施遏制朝鮮。最新的導彈試射只會讓韓國更有理由決定在其領土部署美國製造和美國操作的反導彈系統。這一決定激怒了中國，後者辯稱，這種反導彈系統的雷達將會偵察到中國境內縱深地帶的情況，從而改變地區戰略平衡。北京方面不公開地對韓國及其公司展開了經濟制裁——許多韓國公司的盈利嚴重依賴中國市場。這些舉措可能違反了世貿組織(WTO)規則，而且不管怎樣都是無效的。中國領導人應該明白：哪個國家會在面臨覆滅危險的情況下，把短期經濟利益置於其能找到的最強大防禦手段之上？

Beijing should focus its attention on the source of the problem — the regime next door, which builds nuclear weapons while much of its population languishes near starvation. China cannot, however, deliver a solution to the North Korea problem alone. It needs help, principally from the US.

北京方面應該聚焦於問題源頭，即製造核武器卻讓大量民衆捱餓的朝鮮政權。然而，中國不可能單獨拿出朝鮮問題的解決方案。它需要幫助，尤其是來自美國的幫助。

Pyongyang has a history of acting most belligerently when it is preparing to negotiate. Mr Trump has said he would consider a meeting with Mr Kim. In South Korea, the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye is likely to lead to a government that is more willing to sit down with its counterparts from the north. Offering a meeting is the strongest card Washington and Seoul have, though. It must not be played ahead of dramatic changes in the regime’s behaviour. The prospect of such a meeting — and, beyond that, a commitment to keep regime change off the agenda — might entice North Korea to stop its tests and launches, if it is combined with further economic pressure of the sort only China can apply.

平壤方面曾經多次在準備談判時大肆挑釁。特朗普表示，他將考慮與金正恩會晤。在韓國，對總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)的彈劾可能導致一個更願意坐下來與朝鮮談判的政府上臺。然而，提供談判機會是華盛頓和首爾擁有的最爲有力的牌。它不能在朝鮮戲劇性改變行爲之前打出。此類談判——以及在更深入階段承諾不謀求改變朝鮮政權——的前景，如果能夠結合只有中國才能施加的那種進一步的經濟壓力，可能促使朝鮮不再進行核試驗和導彈試射。

Any tacit understanding reached between North Korea and the international community, and any official talks and agreements that follow, must be vigilantly monitored. After the agreed nuclear framework was signed in 1994, North Korea broke its commitments. Unchecked, it will do so again. All the same, action is needed now. The long-term goal can only be a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. The first step is de-escalating the acutely dangerous current situation before it turns into an armed conflict.

必須嚴格監督朝鮮與國際社會達成的默契以及隨後的官方談判和協議。在1994年簽署商定的核協議框架後，朝鮮背棄了其承諾。如果對此放任不管，朝鮮還會再次這麼做。儘管如此，現在有必要採取行動。長期目標只能是讓朝鮮半島無核化。第一步是緩和當前的危急局勢，以免其演變爲武裝衝突。