特朗普,伊斯蘭與文明衝突

Donald Trump’s travails with his “Muslim ban” make it easy to dismiss the whole idea as an aberration that will swiftly be consigned to history by the judicial system and the court of public opinion. But that would be a misreading. The ban on migrants and refugees from seven mainly Muslim countries was put together clumsily and executed cruelly. But it responded to a hostility to Islam and a craving for security and cultural homogeneity that is finding adherents across the western world — and not just on the far right.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在“穆斯林禁令”上遭遇的種種障礙，令人很容易將其整個想法看低爲一種很快會被司法體系和輿論法庭送入歷史的偏差。然而，這或許是一種誤解。這一針對來自七個穆斯林國家的移民和難民的禁令，以笨拙的方式拼湊而成，實施上也很粗暴。不過，它迴應了對伊斯蘭的敵意和對安全及文化同質的渴望，而這兩者在整個西方世界——而不僅僅是在極右翼人羣中——的支持者越來越多。

Even if Mr Trump’s ban is withdrawn or amended, it will probably be just the beginning of repeated efforts — in the US and Europe — to restrict migration from the Muslim world into the west.

就算特朗普的禁令被撤回或被修改，可能仍將是美國和歐洲反覆努力的開端，其目的是限制穆斯林世界的移民進入西方。

There certainly should be no doubt about the radicalism of the thinking of some of Mr Trump’s key advisers. Michael Flynn, the president’s embattled national security adviser, and Steve Bannon, his chief strategist, believe that they are involved in a struggle to save western civilisation. In his recent book, The Field of Fight, General Flynn insists that: “We’re in a world war against a messianic mass movement of evil people, most of them inspired by a totalitarian ideology: Radical Islam.” Mr Bannon holds similar views. In a now famous contribution to a seminar at the Vatican in 2014, he argued that the west is at the “beginning stages of a global war against Islamic fascism”.

對於特朗普部分關鍵顧問在理念上的激進主義，當然不應有任何懷疑。特朗普麻煩纏身的國家安全顧問邁克爾?弗林（Michael Flynn，已於週一辭職——譯者注）和他的首席策略師史蒂夫?班農(Steve Bannon)深信，他們正捲入一場拯救西方文明的鬥爭之中。在其最近出版的《戰場：我們如何贏得同激進伊斯蘭及其盟友的全球戰爭》(The Field of Fight)一書中，弗林將軍堅稱：“我們正處在一場世界大戰中，對抗罪惡人羣自居救世主的大規模運動。他們中的大多數人受到了激進伊斯蘭(Radical Islam)這種極權主義意識形態的煽動。”班農也持有類似看法。2014年班農在梵蒂岡一個論壇上的講話如今已變得十分有名。在這次講話中，班農聲稱西方“正處於一場針對伊斯蘭法西斯的全球戰爭的開始階段”。

The fact that Mr Trump’s closest advisers believe they are engaged in a battle to save western civilisation is a key to understanding the Trump administration. It helps explain why the president, in his inaugural address, pledged to defend the “civilised world” — not the “free world”, the phrase that would have been naturally used by a Ronald Reagan or a John F Kennedy.

特朗普最親密的顧問深信，他們正捲入一場拯救西方文明的鬥爭，這一事實是理解特朗普政府的關鍵。這有助於解釋爲何這位總統在其就職演說上發誓要保衛的是“文明世界”——而不是羅納德?里根(Ronald Reagan)或約翰?F?肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)或許會自然用到的“自由世界”一詞。

This tendency to conceive of the west in civilisational or even racial terms — rather than through ideology or institutions — also helps explains the Trump team’s sympathy with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and hostility to Angela Merkel’s Germany. Once the west is thought of as synonymous with “Judeo-Christian civilisation” then Mr Putin looks more like a friend than a foe. The Russian president’s closeness to the Orthodox church, his cultural conservatism and his demonstrated willingness to fight brutal wars against Islamists in Chechnya and Syria cast him as an ally. By contrast, Ms Merkel’s willingness to admit more than a million mostly Muslim refugees into Germany make America’s alt-right regard her as a traitor to western civilisation. President Trump has called the German chancellor’s refugee policy a “catastrophic” error.

這種以文明甚至種族看待西方、而不是以意識形態或體制看待西方的傾向，也有助於解釋特朗普團隊對弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)領導的俄羅斯的同情，以及對安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)領導的德國的敵意。一旦把西方看成“猶太教-基督教(Judeo-Christian)文明”的同義詞，普京看起來就更像朋友而不是敵人。這位俄羅斯總統與東正教(Orthodox)教會的密切關係、他在文化上的保守主義、以及他在車臣和敘利亞所展示的與伊斯蘭主義者開展殘酷鬥爭的意願，都令他成爲盟友。相反，默克爾允許逾100萬以穆斯林爲主的難民進入德國的意願，令美國另類右翼將她視爲西方文明的叛徒。特朗普總統就曾將這位德國總理的難民政策稱爲“災難性”錯誤。

Through his Breitbart news service, Mr Bannon forged close ties with the European far-right, who share his hostility to Islam and immigration. The belief that the west is engaged in a mortal struggle with radical Islam clearly animates Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, who recently argued that: “Washington, Paris and Moscow must form a strategic alliance against Islamic fundamentalism?.?.?.?Let us stop the quarrels and unnecessary polemics, the scale of the threat forces us to move fast, and together.”

班農通過他原來掌管的Breitbart新聞服務，與歐洲的極右翼人士建立了密切關係，後者與他一樣，對伊斯蘭和移民抱有敵意。相信西方正與激進伊斯蘭進行你死我活的鬥爭的想法，顯然鼓動了法國國民陣線(National Front)的領導人馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)，她最近提出：“華盛頓、巴黎和莫斯科必須建立反對伊斯蘭原教旨主義的戰略聯盟……讓我們停止爭吵和不必要的爭論，威脅之大，迫使我們快速、齊心協力地行動。”

These views are not confined to the political extremes in France. Fran?ois Fillon, the centre-right’s candidate in the presidential election, recently published a book called, Conquer Islamic Totalitarianism, which contains the Flynn-like declaration that: “We are in a war with an adversary that knows neither weakness nor truce.” Pierre Lellouche, France’s former Europe minister, has also just brought out a book called War without End, which argues that Islamism is the 21st-century equivalent of Nazism.

這些觀點並不僅限於法國的政治極端人士。中右翼的法國大選候選人弗朗索瓦?菲永(Fran?ois Fillon)最近出版了一本名爲《征服伊斯蘭極權主義》(Conquer Islamic Totalitarianism)的書，該書包含了弗林式的宣言：“我們正處於一場戰爭當中，對抗一個既不知道疲倦，也不知道停戰的敵人。”法國前歐洲部長皮埃爾?勒盧什(Pierre Lellouche)也剛剛出版了一本名爲《無休止之戰》(War without End)的書，主張伊斯蘭主義相當於21世紀的納粹主義。

Far-right parties with a Trumpian view of Islam are also prospering in the Netherlands and in Germany. The Freedom party led by Geert Wilders is set to top the polls in next month’s Dutch elections — although it is unlikely to enter government. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party has surged in response to the refugee crisis, and is likely to become the first far-right party to enter the country’s parliament since 1945. Some in the British government believe that hostility to immigration from the Islamic world — more than Europe — lay behind the discontent that triggered the Brexit vote last year.

秉承特朗普對伊斯蘭的觀點的極右翼政黨也正在荷蘭和德國崛起。海爾特?維爾德斯(Geert Wilders)領導的荷蘭自由黨(Party of Freedom)將在下個月荷蘭大選的投票中高居榜首（儘管該黨不太可能進入政府）。在德國，德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)應移民危機而崛起，有可能成爲1945年以後首個進入該國議會的極右翼政黨。英國政府中的一些人士認爲，對來自伊斯蘭世界的移民的敵意——這種敵意超過了歐洲——是觸發去年英國投票退歐的不滿情緒背後的因素。

Sympathy for the Bannon-Flynn-Trump view of Islam extends beyond the US and Europe. A belief that their nations face an elemental threat from radical Islam is also an animating force on the rightwing of Indian and Israeli politics.

不僅美國和歐洲有人認同班農-弗林-特朗普對伊斯蘭的觀點。認爲他們的國家面臨來自激進伊斯蘭的根本性威脅的想法，也是印度和以色列政治中右翼勢力的推動力之一。

Even if Mr Trump loses the battle over his executive order on refugees and immigration, he is likely to return to the fray with further measures. That is because his closest advisers and many of his strongest supporters will remain driven by a deep suspicion of Islam and a determination to stop Muslim immigration.

就算特朗普在針對難民和移民的行政命令之戰中失敗，他也很可能會重返戰場，推出進一步的舉措。這是因爲，他最親密的顧問和許多最堅定的支持者，將依然被對伊斯蘭的深深懷疑和阻止穆斯林移民的決心所驅動。

There will also, almost inevitably, be further jihadist attacks in both the US and Europe that will feed this fear and hostility. Meanwhile, the long-term demographic trends that create pressure for migration from Muslim countries to the US and Europe will only increase in the coming years. The population of impoverished, largely Muslim, north Africa is much younger than that of Europe, and growing fast.

並且，美國和歐洲幾乎不可避免會遭受更多激發這種恐懼和敵意的聖戰分子襲擊。同時，促使人口從穆斯林國家流向美歐的長期人口趨勢在未來數年只會加劇。以穆斯林人口爲主的貧困北非的人口比歐洲年輕得多，而且還在快速增長。

The polemic over Mr Trump’s “Muslim ban” will not be an isolated event. On the contrary, it is a foretaste of the future of politics in the west.

有關特朗普的“穆斯林禁令”的爭論不是一個孤立事件。相反，它預示着西方政治的未來。