從肯尼迪到特朗普 美國全球戰略的危險轉變
It is symbolic and poignant that the election of Donald Trump was confirmed on the morning of November 9, 27 years to the day after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在11月9日早上被確認當選美國總統，這具有令人傷感的象徵意義——27年前的這一天，柏林牆倒塌。
That was a moment of triumph for US leadership — and ushered in a period of optimism and expansion for liberal and democratic ideas around the world.
那是一個美國領導力勝利的時刻，還開啓了一段令人樂觀、自由和民主思想在世界各地傳播的時期。
That era has been definitively ended by Mr Trump’s victory.
那個時期無疑隨着特朗普的勝選而終結。
The electoral triumph of a race-baiting demagogue represents a profound blow to the prestige of US democracy — and thus to the cause of democracy around the world, which America has championed, on and off, since 1945.
一個打種族牌的煽動者贏得大選，代表着對美國民主體制威望的沉重打擊，也是對世界各地民主事業的沉重打擊——美國自1945年以來斷斷續續地捍衛着民主事業。
The most eloquent and moving statement of that American commitment was made by John F Kennedy in 1961 — Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
美國作出的最精闢也最令人感動的承諾是約翰.肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)在1961年所說的：讓每個國家都知道——不論它希望我們繁榮還是希望我們衰落——爲確保自由的存在和自由的勝利，我們將付出任何代價，承受任何負擔，應付任何艱難，支持任何朋友，反抗任何敵人。
The generosity, breadth and eloquence of Kennedy’s vision makes a sad contrast with the pinched nationalism of Mr Trump’s proclamation that — Our plan will put America first.
肯尼迪願景的大氣、廣度和雄辯與特朗普那種小家子氣的民族主義宣告構成了令人悲哀的對比——我們的計劃將首先考慮美國。
Americanism not globalism will be our credo.
美國主義而非全球主義將是我們的信條。
The difference between these two visions is profound and ominous.
這兩種願景之間的差異是深遠和不祥的。
It was not just idealism that led America’s postwar generation to commit to the protection of liberty around the world.
促使美國戰後一代人承諾保護世界各地自由民主的，並不只是理想主義。
As Kennedy observed, his generation was tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace.
正如肯尼迪所指出的，他們這代人在戰爭中受過鍛鍊，在艱難困苦的和平時期受過陶冶。
They make a stark contrast with the generation who have voted for Mr Trump — fattened by fast food and infantilised by reality television.
他們與當今這一代把特朗普選上臺的美國人（因吃多了快餐食品而變得肥胖，因看多了真人秀節目而變得幼稚）不可同日而語。
The Kennedy generation had learnt bitter lessons from the Great Depression and the second world war.
肯尼迪那代人從大蕭條(Great Depression)和二戰汲取了慘痛的教訓。
They knew that America First policies — those that sought to isolate the US from the problems of the wider world — had ultimately led to economic and political catastrophe.
他們知道，美國優先政策——那些尋求讓美國對外部世界的問題不理不問的政策——最終導致經濟和政治災難。
So after 1945, a new generation of US leaders, both Republicans and Democrats, built an economic and security architecture for the world — based around US leadership and international institutions and alliances, such as Nato, the UN and the World Bank.
因此在1945年之後，美國新一代領導人（無論是共和黨還是民主黨人）爲世界打造了一套經濟和安全架構，其基礎是美國的領導力以及國際機構和聯盟，如北約(Nato)、聯合國和世界銀行(World Bank)。
Mr Trump has forgotten these lessons drawn from the experience of the 1930s, if he ever knew them.
特朗普忘記了從上世紀30年代汲取的這些教訓——如果他曾經明白過這些教訓的話。
He appears to have even more contempt for international bodies than for the institutions of America itself.
在他眼裏，國際機構似乎比美國自己的機構更值得蔑視。
His proposed policies threaten to take an axe to the liberal world order that the US has supported and sustained for many decades.
他擬議的政策可能砍掉美國幾十年來支持和捍衛的自由主義世界秩序。
In particular, he has challenged two of the main bipartisan principles that underpin America’s approach to the world.
尤其是，他挑戰了支撐美國對外政策的兩大跨黨派原則：
The first is support for an open, international trading system.
一是支持一個開放的國際貿易體系；
The second is the commitment to the US-led alliances that underpin global security.
二是承諾維護以美國爲首的聯盟以支撐全球安全。
Mr Trump is the first avowed protectionist to be elected US president since before the second world war.
特朗普是自二戰之前以來首個當選美國總統的公開的保護主義者。
He has promised to renegotiate America’s terrible trade deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, and threatened to pull the US out of the World Trade Organisation.
他承諾重新談判美國糟糕的貿易協定，比如《北美自由貿易協定》(NAFTA)，並威脅讓美國退出世貿組織(WTO)。
He has also mooted tariffs as high as 45 per cent on Chinese goods.
他還提議對中國輸美商品徵收高達45%的關稅。
If Mr Trump were to follow through on these threats, he would spark a global trade war and could well plunge the world into recession — similar to the depression of the 1930s, which was greatly deepened by America’s embrace of protectionism.
如果特朗普真的兌現這些威脅，他將引發全球貿易戰，很可能讓世界陷入衰退，類似於上世紀30年代的大蕭條，那場蕭條因美國採取保護主義而嚴重加劇。
