特朗普將葬送美國治下的和平

You hear two things about the US in national capitals around the world. The first is that America is no longer the superpower it was; the second that they have put everything important on hold until they see the outcome of the US presidential election. Now add a third: a Donald Trump presidency is beyond their worst nightmares.

你在世界各國的首都會聽到兩件事。一是美國不再是曾經的那個超級大國；二是他們已把所有重要的事情暫停，等着看美國總統選舉結果。如今可以再加上第三件事：唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當選總統比他們最糟糕的噩夢還要糟。

American declinism has long been overdone. The US remains the sole superpower: the only nation with the capacity to intervene just about everywhere. It stands at the apex of a formidable system of alliances. What has changed during the past decade or so is that there are now some checks — shifting power balances internationally and the political mood domestically.

認爲美國衰落的看法長期言過其實。美國依然是唯一的超級大國：它是唯一有能力干預全球差不多任何地方的國家。它處於一個令人敬畏的聯盟體系的頂端。過去10年左右發生的變化在於，現在有了某些制衡——不斷變化的國際力量均衡和國內政治情緒。

That said, there is no one else to match the US. It will be decades, if at all, before China equals its military reach and technological prowess. Washington remains an indispensable guardian of global order. So yes, it is for Americans to decide who they want in the White House, but the choice matters hugely for everyone else.

話雖如此，其他任何國家都無法與美國匹敵。中國的軍事觸角和技術實力要趕上美國還需要數十年時間——如果有那麼一天的話。美國政府仍然是全球秩序不可或缺的監護者。因此，雖然說起來道理沒錯，誰入主白宮要由美國人民決定，但是這一選擇對其他所有國家都至關重要。

Never more so now that Mr Trump has become the presumptive Republican nominee. Lots can be said about his triumph in the primary race: about how the Grand Old Party of Abraham Lincoln became the author of its own destruction; about how a real estate developer turned reality television star tapped into rising anxiety and anger about stagnant living standards and cultural dislocation that for many Americans has become the story of globalisation; and, sadly, how the media half-conspired in the process by treating him for much of the time as lucrative box office entertainment.

既然特朗普已成爲假定的共和黨提名人，這個問題空前突出。對於他在初選階段的勝利，有許多可以點評的地方：亞伯拉罕•林肯(Abraham Lincoln)的共和黨怎樣成爲自身的掘墓人；一位房地產開發商出身的電視真人秀明星，是如何利用人們對生活水準停滯和文化上的錯位日益焦慮和憤怒的情緒的——在許多美國人心目中，這種停滯和文化錯位已變成全球化的同義詞；還有就是一個令人悲哀的事實，即在整個過程中，媒體在多數時間裏是怎樣把他當做票房娛樂的搖錢樹，從而成爲半個共謀的。

It is true also that populist politicians of right and left across the democratic world are playing similar tunes. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front, promotes the same Islamophobia, as does the rightwing Alternative für Deutschland party. In Britain, the pro-Brexit camp is relying on popular hostility towards the political elites to wrench the country out of its own continent.

同樣沒錯的是，舉目全球民主國家，右翼和左翼的民粹主義政客都唱着類似的論調。法國國民陣線(National Front)領導人馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)宣揚着同樣的對伊斯蘭的恐懼，右翼的德國新選擇黨(Alternative für Deutschland)也同樣如此。在英國，支持英國退出歐盟(EU)的陣營也在依靠人們對政治精英的普遍憎惡，以達到把英國剝離其所在的大陸的目的。

Politics tends to accommodate itself to events. The temptation now is to say that, well, maybe it would not be quite as bad as all that. Candidates always play to their base during the primaries before tacking back to the centre. Mr Trump would be no different. The point, though, is that this candidate is different. The presumptive nominee is not a conservative, nor even a Republican. His platform mixes leftwing economic populism with a singularly ugly rightwing nationalism. What passes for his foreign policy can best be described as bellicose isolationism. Walling off Mexico and barring Muslims from the US — these are not policies that can be easily unsaid.

政治傾向於使自己適應事件。目前的誘惑是說，或許情況沒有上面說得這麼糟糕。候選人總是在初選時迎合自己的基礎選民，之後再退回中間立場。特朗普或許也同樣如此。不過，問題在於這位候選人是不一樣的。這位假定的提名人並不是保守派人士，甚至不算是共和黨人。他的競選平臺夾雜着左翼的經濟民粹主義和異常醜陋的右翼民族主義。對於號稱是其外交政策的政見，最準確的形容是好鬥的孤立主義。築牆隔離墨西哥和把穆斯林擋在美國門外——這些都不是容易改口的政策。

Ah, you hear old-school Republicans respond, he cannot win in November. He has alienated 70 per cent of women and still higher proportions of Hispanics and African Americans. His personal disapproval ratings are off the scale. So the basic arithmetic condemns him to defeat. What really worries the Republican establishment is that he will bring down the rest of the party with him. The Democrats already have a fair chance of taking back control of the Senate. Mr Trump could surrender the House of Representatives.

哦，你聽到老派的共和黨人回答說，他贏不了11月份的選舉。70%的婦女不喜歡他，西語裔和非裔美國人不喜歡他的比例更高。他的不支持率簡直爆表。因此，簡單的算術意味着他輸定了。真正令共和黨建制派擔憂的是，他會連累全黨與他一起倒黴。民主黨已經有奪回參議院控制權的較好機會。特朗普可能把衆議院也拱手讓人。

True enough, it is one thing for Republicans to choose him as nominee, quite another for Americans to put him in the White House. And yet. If there has been another lesson from the primary race it is that opponents have consistently underestimated Mr Trump.

沒錯，共和黨選他做候選人是一回事，美國人選他入主白宮則是另一回事。然而，如果說初選階段還有什麼教訓的話，那就是特朗普的對手一直低估了他。

It is striking also that Republicans — those most confounded by Mr Trump — seem rather more certain than their Democrat opponents that he will blow up on the road to the election. Hillary Clinton would be a well-qualified president. Democrats know that does not make her a good candidate.

同樣引人注目的是，共和黨人（被特朗普搞得最狼狽的那些人）似乎比民主黨競爭對手更確定，他將在問鼎白宮的路上折戟。希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)將是一位完全具備條件的總統。民主黨人知道，這未必意味着她會是一個優秀的候選人。

So to Mr Trump’s foreign policy. The bumper sticker says it is all about making America great again. There would be no more pussy-footing around. Enemies, notably Isis, would not know what had hit them. Unpredictability, in Mr Trump’s book, is a strength. Mostly though, he would attach unapologetic nationalism to old-fashioned isolationism. He wants America’s allies in Europe and Asia to pay up or watch the US ship its forces back home. He is relaxed if nations such as Japan and South Korea respond to insecurity in East Asia by building their own nuclear bombs. He is an admirer of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. Trade agreements deemed damaging to US business and jobs — that means almost all of them — would be torn up, and new tariffs slapped on imports from China.

再回到特朗普的外交政策。他的招牌是，根本目的是讓美國再度偉大。不會再縮手縮腳了。敵人（特別是“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)）到死都不會知道是什麼先進武器砸到他們頭上。按照特朗普的邏輯，不可預測性是一種優勢。然而，多數情況下，他只是會把毫無歉意的民族主義與陳腐的孤立主義攪在一起。他想要美國在歐洲和亞洲的盟友加大力度爲國防買單，否則就會眼睜睜看着美國把部隊撤回國內。如果日本和韓國等國通過製造自己的核彈對東亞的不安全作出迴應，他不會覺得有問題。他是俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)的崇拜者。被視爲對美國企業和就業有害的貿易協定（這意味着幾乎全部協定）將被撕毀，新的關稅將強加在中國輸美產品上。

Put this all together and Mr Trump is proposing in effect the dismantling of the global architecture established by the US at the end of the second world war. The underlying assumption is that the Pax Americana has been an entirely altruistic venture, an international order gifted by a generous US to an ungrateful world.

綜上所述，特朗普實際上正提議拆除美國在第二次世界大戰結束時構建的全球架構。其根本假設是，“美國治下的和平”(Pax Americana)是一項完全利他的計劃，是慷慨的美國向一個忘恩負義的世界饋贈全球秩序。

The hard-edged reality, of course, is that these rules and institutions have embedded US national interests in the international system. American prosperity and security cannot be separated from its preponderance of global power. This is why China and other rising states are now demanding a stronger voice in managing the system. Upending all this by packing up and going home would serve greatly to diminish US power. The decision lies with Americans, but such a choice would be bad for everyone.

當然，無情的現實是，這些規則和機構已經把美國的國家利益嵌入全球體系。美國的繁榮和安全不可能脫離其全球實力優勢。這正是爲何中國和其他崛起中的國家正要求在管理這個體系方面擁有更大話語權。美國收拾行李回家的做法顛覆了這一切，這將大大削弱美國的實力。這個決定要由美國人民做出，但選擇特朗普對所有人都不利。