恐怖襲擊的經濟影響十分有限
A few days after the assault on Paris, it is hard to name the businesses that were singled out by the terrorists. The public venues — the Bataclan theatre and the Stade de France — are memorable. The cafés and bars of eastern Paris — Le Carillon, Comptoir Voltaire, La Belle Equipe — were not symbolic in themselves. They were simply places for people to gather.
巴黎襲擊事件幾天之後，人們很難說出恐怖分子專挑哪些商家作案。巴塔克蘭劇院(Bataclan theatre)和法蘭西體育場(Stade de France)這些公共場所是有紀念意義的場所。至於Le Carillon、Comptoir Voltaire和La Belle Equipe這些巴黎東部的咖啡館和酒吧，本身並不具有象徵意義。它們只是人們聚會的場所。
Nor, despite the terrible bloodshed, have the attacks had a deep physical impact on the fabric of the city. There are broken windows and some bomb damage but Paris otherwise survives largely as before. In terms of disrupting physical infrastructure or the economy — the energy supplies, communications and supply chains of France — Isis might as well not have bothered.
而且，儘管發生了可怕的殺戮事件，這些襲擊對這座城市的實體樣貌也沒有產生深刻影響。確實出現了諸多破碎的窗戶及一些炸彈破壞的痕跡，然而巴黎在很大程度上一如往昔。要說破壞實體基礎設施或經濟（比如法國的能源供應、通信及供應鏈條），“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)可能也沒有這種心思。
Al-Qaeda’s transnational operating model has been compared with global franchising: its brand is adopted by semi-independent groups that organise and carry out their own attacks.
基地組織(al-Qaeda)的跨國運作模式，曾被拿來與全球特許經營模式相比較：其品牌被半獨立的組織採用，後者會組織和實施自己的恐怖襲擊。
To judge by Paris, Isis prefers to outsource. From its supply chain of military-grade weapons to cross-border planning of explosions, it is a multi-national. “Designed in Syria. Manufactured in Belgium” could be its slogan. Yet the economic impact of Islamist terrorists, who are obsessed with causing as many deaths as possible, is usually minimal apart from on tourism and travel. The attacks of September 11 2001 had little long-term effect after the initial $90bn [OR $83BN?]of damage. The 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 Japanese earthquake, which disrupted global supply chains, were more powerful.
從巴黎的情形看，ISIS寧願採取外包的方式。從其軍用級武器的供應鏈條，再到爆炸事件的跨境策劃，都說明它是個跨國組織。它的口號或許是“敘利亞設計，比利時製造”。然而，儘管伊斯蘭恐怖分子執迷於製造儘可能多的死亡，除了旅遊觀光以外，他們對經濟的影響通常很小。比如，在起初的900億美元損失之後，2001年9月11日的恐怖襲擊幾乎沒導致什麼長期影響。相比之下，2008年金融危機和2011年日本的地震則破壞了全球供應鏈條，它們的影響更大一些。
The Paris death toll was high but its financial reach was less even than an accidental explosion at a German chemical plant in 2012. That killed two workers and halted the production of a resin used in brake and fuel parts, which in turn inflicted supply shortages on US and European carmakers.
巴黎事件的死亡人數很高，但是其在經濟上的影響甚至還不如2012年德國一家化工廠的爆炸事故。那次事故導致兩名員工喪生，並造成一種用於剎車部件和燃料部件的樹脂停產，這又導致了歐美汽車製造商的供應短缺。
For this reason alone, French President Hollande’s talk of war on Isis is misguided. Isis has formed a state within Syria and Iraq by controlling the oil industry inside its territories, but its cross-border brand of terrorism is not warlike. Killing people is terrifying but is insufficient in war: you must destroy infrastructure and degrade supplies, as the Nazis did in the 1940s by bombing the east London docks.
只從這個意義上說，法國總統弗朗索瓦攠朗德( Hollande)有關ISIS戰爭行爲的說法有誤導性。通過控制其領地內的石油產業，ISIS在敘利亞和伊拉克內建立了一個國家，然而其跨境恐怖主義活動的模式卻不像戰爭。殺害平民是很恐怖，但還不足以看作戰爭：只有像納粹在1940年代轟炸倫敦東部碼頭那樣，破壞對方基礎設施並消解其供應鏈條纔算是戰爭行爲。
Islamist terrorism, which in the mid-1990s overtook leftist forms of insurrection in which industries and business leaders were often primary targets, does not do that[EVEN EG LIBYAN MILITANTS DESTROYING OIL WELLS?]. It attempts to encourage a clash of civilisations by fomenting terror in what Isis calls “the grey zone” — the millions of people who do not want to be trapped in a caliphate and prefer to enjoy their liberty elsewhere. Beneath the scathing rhetoric about “targeting the capital of prostitution and vice” in Paris, Isis recognises a reality: that it would like to destroy the French economy but it cannot.
伊斯蘭恐怖主義並不存在上述行爲。1990年代中期，它的影響力超過了左派組織的暴動形式，後者往往以行業和企業領導人爲主要目標。伊斯蘭恐怖主義試圖通過在被ISIS稱爲“灰色地帶”的人羣（指那些不想深陷哈里發之中、更願意在其他地方享受自由的無數人們）中引發恐怖，煽動起一種文明的衝突。在所謂“以（巴黎這個）淫蕩和邪惡之都爲目標”的尖刻措辭之下，ISIS承認了這樣一個現實：它想要破壞法國經濟卻無法做到。
As Todd Sandler, a professor at the University of Texas who studies the economic effects of terrorism, says: “They can scare the heck out of us but they do not seem to have much economic impact.”
正如研究恐怖主義經濟影響的德克薩斯大學(University of Texas)教授託德儠德勒(Todd Sandler)所說的：“它們能把我們嚇得魂不附體，但似乎不會產生多少經濟上的影響。”
It is partly a matter of scale. Most terrorist attacks, even those in Paris, are small and localised: if you do not happen to be nearby at the time, you are not in danger. It also reflects the resilience of diversified modern economies. There are some choke points in power and communications infrastructure but most are well guarded — the soft terrorist targets are less financially critical.
這在一定程度上是規模的問題。多數恐怖襲擊——即使是巴黎發生的恐怖襲擊——規模都很小，範圍也侷限在當地：只要你不是碰巧當時在附近，你就不會遇到危險。此外，它還反映了多元化現代經濟的強韌性。電力和通信基礎設施中存在一些咽喉點，不過它們中的多數都受到了嚴密防衛，而防衛鬆懈的恐襲目標則在經濟上沒有那麼重要。
“Companies may suffer but industries as a whole are very robust,” says Yossi Sheffi, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In order to create long-term damage, terrorism has to be sustained, focused and targeted at a small area. The output of Spain’s Basque region was estimated to have been reduced by 10 percentage points by a 20-year separatist campaign — much of it, unlike with Islamist terrorism, aimed at industrial targets.
麻省理工學院(MIT)教授約西∠菲(Yossi Sheffi)表示：“企業也許會受到影響，行業整體則是十分健壯的。”要想產生長期破壞，恐怖主義者必須長期持續、集中精力、並把目標集中於小範圍內。據估計，爲期20年的分裂運動令西班牙巴斯克區的產出減少了10%。而與伊斯蘭恐怖主義活動不同，這些分裂分子的活動中許多都對準了工業目標。
The Paris attacks may dent France’s economy and those of other European countries if governments respond — as some are threatening to — by reinstating border controls and weakening the Schengen agreement that allows free movement of people and goods. Citigroup economists warned this week of “a growing backlash against a key element of globalisation”.
對於巴黎的恐怖襲擊，若各國政府的迴應是恢復邊境管制並弱化允許人員與商品自由遷移的申根協定——就像部分政府威脅的那樣，那麼它也許會影響法國以及其他歐洲國家的經濟。就在本週，花旗集團(Citigroup)經濟學家警告“全球化一個關鍵要素遭到越來越大的反對”。
Isis would welcome it as an economic side effect of its religious offensive but it is not a given. Attacks such as that on the World Trade Center and the Madrid train bombings of 2004 did not curtail growth in global trade. The damping of trade growth, which dropped to 3 per cent in 2013 compared with an average of 7.1 per cent growth between 1987 and 2007, has other causes.
ISIS或許會歡迎其宗教攻勢在經濟上的副作用，但是這種副作用並不是確定無疑的。類似對世貿中心(WTC)的襲擊和2004年馬德里火車爆炸案那樣的襲擊事件，並未削弱全球貿易的增長。全球貿易增長率從1987年到2007年期間的平均7.1%跌至2013年的3%別有原因。
The most significant, according to one International Monetary Fund study, is a levelling in supply chain fragmentation and the “back and forth” of industrial components after a prolonged growth in outsourcing of US and European manufacturing to China and Asia. Globalisation paused not because of terrorism or trade protectionism but because it had reached limits.
根據一項國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的研究，最重要的原因是在歐美製造業向中國和亞洲的外包經歷長期增長之後，分散的供應鏈以及工業部件的“來來往往”進入平臺期。全球化暫時停頓，不是由於恐怖主義或貿易保護主義，而是由於全球化已達到極限。
Terrorism has its own logic. It fosters fear far in excess of the danger it presents and is a marketing campaign for recruits. It does what its planners want. But set against natural events such as earthquakes, and the ebb and flow of industry and trade, even large attacks are economically minor.
恐怖主義有自身的運作邏輯。它激起的恐懼遠遠超過它所帶來的危險，它也是一種招募新人的營銷手段。它的策劃者想要的正是這些。不過，如果和地震等自然災害、以及工業和貿易的潮起潮落比起來，即使是大規模的恐怖襲擊，經濟上的影響也是微不足道的。
It is hard to keep in mind when faced with atrocities but it is the reality. Many Parisians fell but Paris stands.
面臨暴行的時候人們很難這麼去想，但現實就是這樣。暴行讓許多巴黎人倒下了，而巴黎卻依然屹立不倒。
