中非關係並非僅限於開採原材料
African nations that have been supplying oil, copper, iron ore and bauxite to feed China’s supercharged growth have suddenly woken from a dream.
一直向中國供應石油、銅、鐵礦石和鋁土礦、以支撐中國迅猛增長的非洲國家，突然從夢中醒來。
China is slowing and trying to shift to a consumer-driven model that will inevitably depend less on African raw materials, and commodity prices are tumbling as a result. Further, some international investors, spooked by the prospect of rising US interest rates, have lost their appetite for emerging markets.
中國經濟增長開始放緩，中國還在努力向消費驅動型增長模式轉型——該模式將不可避免地降低中國對非洲原材料的依賴，大宗商品價格也因此不斷下跌。另外，受到美國可能加息驚嚇的部分國際投資者，已對新興市場失去了興趣。
“The past decade has been very benign for Africa,” says Paul Collier, an Oxford economist, “but that’s over.” The period began, he says, with debt relief, before “commodity prices went through the roof”. In the 10 years to 2014, trade between Africa and China increased 20-fold to more than $200bn.
“過去十年對非洲非常有利，”牛津大學(Oxford)經濟學家保羅科利爾(Paul Collier)表示，“但那種日子已經到頭了。”他說，那段時期一開始是各國減免非洲的債務，然後“大宗商品價格又一路飛漲”。截至2014年的十年，中非貿易額增長19倍，至逾2000億美元。
The combination of low debt and high revenue allowed many African governments to tap capital markets for the first time. In some cases, that funded the discovery of more reserves of minerals and hydrocarbons.
債務低加上收入高，使得許多非洲政府頭一次得以利用資本市場。在某些情況下，這爲發現更多礦產和碳氫化合物儲量提供了資金。
“This was the biggest opportunity Africa ever had,” says Mr Collier, “but it’s broadly been a missed opportunity.”
“這曾是非洲面臨過的最大機遇，”柯利爾表示，“但這個機遇基本上被錯過了。”
Countries that did not prepare in the good times by diversifying or building strong economic buffers are now likely to suffer a Chinese hangover.
如今中國做東的盛宴已散席，那些在景氣時期沒有未雨綢繆地進行多元化或打造強大經濟緩衝的國家，眼下可能會受豪飲後遺症之苦。
Yet that does not mean the Chinese-African relationship has ended — far from it. For a start, China’s economy may be slowing but, barring a catastrophe, it is unlikely to grind to a halt. Even at 5 per cent growth, China would add an Indian-sized economy to its already massive bulk in four years, implying a steady, albeit more moderate, demand for African raw materials.
但這並不意味着中非關係已終結——遠不至此。首先，中國經濟或許正在放緩，但除非發生一場災難，中國經濟不大可能逐漸放緩至停滯。即便以5%的速度增長，已然龐大的中國經濟也將在4年內增加相當於一個印度的經濟體量，這意味着中國對非洲原材料的需求儘管將降溫，但仍將保持穩定。
Second, the China-Africa relationship goes much deeper than extracting raw materials. “Rwanda and Ethiopia are not commodity exporters,” says Deborah Br甀琀椀最愀洀, an expert on China-Africa relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Those two economies have close trade and investment ties with China, and have racked up years of impressive growth. “So something else is going on.”
其次，中非關係的發展遠遠超過了開採原材料的範疇。“盧旺達和埃塞俄比亞並非大宗商品出口國，”約翰霍普金斯大學高級國際研究學院(Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)的中非關係專家德博拉布羅蒂加姆(Deborah Br甀琀椀最愀洀)說。這兩個經濟體跟中國之間保持着緊密的貿易與投資關係，並且多年來增速令人矚目。“所以，中非關係還有別的東西。”
In the case of Ethiopia, the relationship has been built on trade, and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, says Arkebe Oqubay, architect of the country’s industrial policy. “I don’t think Chinese investment in Africa is primarily driven by resources.”
埃塞俄比亞工業政策的設計師阿凱貝攠鍙巴(Arkebe Oquba)表示，埃塞俄比亞與中國的關係一直建立在貿易、基礎設施投資與製造上。“我認爲，中國對非投資並非主要由資源驅動。”
More than any other country in Africa, Ethiopia has made concerted efforts to build an industrial base.
埃塞俄比亞一直比任何其他非洲國家都更努力地協同打造工業基礎。
“While Africa cannot copy Chinese stages of development, it may be able to learn more than from Europe,” Xu Weizhong of the Institute of African Studies told a Chatham House conference this year. “Ethiopia, for example, has studied Asian dragons and tigers, which have influenced its policies.”
“儘管非洲不能複製中國的發展階段，但非洲從中國身上或許能比從歐洲身上學到更多。”中國現代國際關係研究院西亞非洲研究所的徐偉忠今年在查塔姆國際事務研究所（Chatham House，又名英國皇家國際事務研究所(the Royal Institute of International Affairs)）的一次會議上表示，“比如，埃塞俄比亞研究了亞洲四小龍和四小虎，研究成果影響了該國的政策。”
Chinese companies, many of them private, have been among the most enthusiastic investors. In the leather industry, Huajian, one of the world’s biggest shoe manufacturers, employs 4,000 workers in an industrial park outside Addis Ababa. Its experience has been largely positive and it plans to increase its workforce to 40,000.
中國企業（其中許多爲民營企業）一直投資熱情極爲高漲。在皮革行業，全球最大的製鞋企業之一華堅集團(Huajian)在亞的斯亞貝巴外圍一處工業園僱用了4000名工人。該公司的經歷基本是順利的，它還打算把員工數量增加至4萬人。
Howard French, an academic and author of China’s Second Continent, says that rising labour costs at home and the Chinese public’s growing awareness of environmental damage is driving some lower-end manufacturing out of China. These push factors, says Mr French, make Africa an interesting offshore destination. “It’s already a big deal, and potentially it’s a very big deal.”
著有《中國的第二塊大陸》(China’s Second Continent)一書的學者傅好文(Howard French)表示， 中國國內勞動力成本的上升加上中國民衆越來越在意環境破壞，開始推動部分低端製造業撤出中國。傅好文表示，這些推動因素使非洲成爲一個值得關注的海外目的地。“這已經是一筆大交易，它可能還會是一筆非常大的交易。”
He describes Beijing’s resource grab, lubricated sometimes by massive bribes, as mostly “pernicious”. Yet Chinese individuals, and Chinese companies such as Haujian, he says, can have a potentially beneficial impact.
他把中國的資源奪取（有時是用大筆賄賂來疏通的）描述爲基本上“極其有害的”。不過，他表示，中國的一些個人、以及華堅集團等中國企業可能會產生有益的影響。
One of Africa’s attractions is that it is largely uncontested territory. “Chinese companies can go and cut their teeth at [low] prices, because the top tier of western companies is not there. It’s an ideal training ground.”
非洲的吸引力之一，是國家之間基本沒有領土糾紛。“中國企業可以去非洲以（低）代價獲取經驗，因爲那裏還沒有第一流的西方企業。那是一個理想的訓練場地。”
Mr French remembers 18 months ago on the drive into Kampala from Uganda’s Entebbe airport, seeing billboard after billboard for Chinese goods: “Mattresses, fridges, washer-driers, roof tiles — you name it.”
傅好文記得，18個月前，在從烏干達坎帕拉駕車去恩德培機場途中，他看到了一個又一個的中國商品廣告牌：“牀墊，冰箱，洗衣烘乾兩用機，屋面瓦——什麼都有。”
Cheap Chinese products, such as textiles, have often been blamed for wiping out whole swaths of African industry. But Mr French argues that the death of inefficient industries selling overpriced goods to unfortunate African consumers is not necessarily to be mourned.
經常有人指責稱，紡織品等廉價中國產品擠垮了非洲的一個個行業。但傅好文認爲，那些向倒黴的非洲消費者出售高價產品的低效率行業垮掉，未必值得哀悼。
The trick is to harness the new opportunities provided by Chinese interest in the continent, he says. If governments respond with the right incentives, as Ethiopia has tried to do, by encouraging manufacturers to invest locally, transfer technology and employ local staff, China can be more a boon than a threat.
他說，關鍵在於抓住中國對非洲的興趣提供的新機遇。如果各國政府像埃塞俄比亞一直努力在做的那樣，拿出適當的激勵措施作爲迴應，鼓勵生產商在當地投資、向當地轉移技術並僱傭當地員工，那麼中國帶來的可能會是福音而不是威脅。
Ha-Joon Chang, a development economist at Cambridge university, says that even though the Chinese state has been every bit as exploitative as the west, Beijing’s growing presence in Africa has been largely beneficial.
劍橋大學(Cambridge university)發展經濟學家張夏準(Ha-Joon Chang)表示，儘管中國政府的剝削性與西方完全相同，但中國加大在非洲的存在，基本上是對非洲有益的。
“The most important thing is that there’s competition,” he says. “For African countries, there used to be only one bank in town. It was called the World Bank.” Ethiopia has found Chinese finance “smoother and faster”, he adds. African nations, says Mr Chang, must wean themselves off simply “digging things out of the ground”.
“最重要的事情是，這帶來了競爭。”張夏準說，“過去，非洲國家只能從一家銀行借錢，那就是世界銀行(World Bank)。”他接着說，埃塞俄比亞已發現，從中國融資，過程“更順暢、也更快捷”；非洲國家必須使自己擺脫僅僅“從地下挖東西”的狀態。
Instead, they need to move to an early industrial phase in the mould of now-wealthy South Korea, whose GDP per capita in 1960 was half that of Ghana’s. One of South Korea’s first successful industrial experiments was wig-making, he says, a labour-intensive operation that required workers to attach individual strands of hair.
它們需要按照如今已躋身富國行列的韓國的模式，邁進早期工業化階段。20世紀60年代，韓國的人均國內生產總值(GDP)僅爲加納的一半。張夏準說，韓國首批成功的工業化試驗之一是假髮製造業，那是一種勞動密集型業務，要求工人把一縷一縷的假髮貼上去。
Other countries such as Rwanda, Mauritius and Ghana, have set off in the right direction, says Mr Chang. On the other hand, “Zambia is still digging copper...慍渀攙 Angola doesn’t appear to be doing much to prepare for the future.”
張夏準說，盧旺達、毛里求斯和加納等其他國家已朝着正確方向出發了。另一方面，“贊比亞仍在挖銅……安哥拉似乎也沒有爲未來做太多準備。”
The next decade or so, he predicts, will see a sharp divergence between countries with good policies and those without. China’s interest in Africa, albeit tempered by its current slowdown, means that opportunity will continue to knock. But it will not knock equally.
張夏準預測，未來十來年，實施了良好政策的國家與未實施良好政策的國家之間將出現巨大分野。中國對非洲的興趣，儘管因當前其自身增長放慢而減弱，仍意味着機會將繼續來敲門。但是，它不會平均地敲每一個國家的門。
