引發全球金融震盪的瑞士央行

Switzerland is not known normally for jolting the global financial system — but that is what it has done, and without warning. It has abandoned a self-imposed peg of the Swiss franc against the euro, introduced in 2011, and lowered the already negative interest rate on deposits from minus 0.25 per cent to minus 0.75 per cent.

瑞士一般並不以令全球金融體系震盪而著稱，然而它剛剛就這麼幹了一回，而且毫無預警。瑞士取消了自己強加的瑞士法郎兌歐元匯率上限（2011年出臺），並將已經爲負的存款利率從-0.25%降至-0.75%。

In the wake of Thursday’s announcement, the Swiss franc soared against the euro by almost 40 per cent, though this gain was subsequently halved.

上週四該政策一經宣佈，瑞郎相對歐元一度飆升近40%，不過這一漲幅隨後回吐了一半。

So let us put the action of the Swiss National Bank into context; what was the aim and what is its significance?

那麼，讓我們梳理下瑞士央行(SNB)此舉的來龍去脈，看看它目的何在，其意義又是什麼？

The central bank might have seen an opportunity to stop the vigorous expansion of its balance sheet since 2011, which followed currency market interventions to hold down the Swiss franc and support the euro in the midst of the sovereign debt crisis. By the end of 2014, it had risen to about SFr500bn, or 80 per cent of gross domestic product. Relative to the size of its economy, Switzerland’s central bank had a balance sheet about three times larger than those of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Flows into Swiss francs have grown as a result of the quest for a haven from Russia’s economic and political problems.

瑞士央行或許是認爲，這是阻止其資產負債規模急劇擴張的一個機會。自2011年瑞士央行干預匯市、壓低瑞郎匯率並支撐遭遇主權債務危機的歐元以來，該行的資產負債規模就一直在擴張。到2014年底，其資產負債規模已擴至約5000億瑞郎，相當於瑞士國內生產總值(GDP)的80%。就央行資產負債規模與本國經濟規模之比而言，瑞士央行是美聯儲(Fed)和英國央行(BoE)的3倍以上。在俄羅斯遭遇經濟和政治問題後，爲尋求避險，越來越多的資金涌入瑞郎。

The authorities may have grown concerned, moreover, at the prospect of additional flows into francs should there be an announcement by the European Central Bank at its meeting on 22 January — as is now widely expected — to commence quantitative easing. If there had been any such influx with the peg still in place, the SNB’s balance sheet would have expanded even further.

另外，瑞士當局或許是越來越擔心，一旦歐洲央行(ECB)如人們現在普遍預期的那樣在1月22日的會議上宣佈啓動量化寬鬆，可能會有更多資金流入瑞郎。如果匯率上限依然存在時出現過這種流入，那麼瑞士央行的資產負債規模可能已進一步擴大。

In theory, the SNB could have continued to build up its balance sheet without limit, comfortable in the knowledge that it could print unlimited Swiss francs to cover any foreign currency losses in the future if the franc rose. However, in so doing, the traditionally cautious central bank might well have landed itself with even bigger financial stability concerns than those it has been grappling with hitherto — ultimately, about the consequences of open-ended money creation. The monetary base has quintupled to SFr400bn since the middle of 2011, property prices and rents are increasing rapidly, and bank lending has risen by 25 per cent as a share of GDP to 170 per cent.

理論上講，瑞士央行本可繼續放心地無限擴大其資產負債規模，因爲它清楚自己可以無限量印製瑞郎、以彌補若未來瑞郎升值所造成的任何外匯損失。但這家一向謹慎的央行如果真的這樣做，很可能引起外界對其金融穩定性的更大擔心，甚至要比它迄今一直竭力應對的問題引發的擔憂更嚴重——這件事歸根結底與無限貨幣創造的後果有關。自2011年中期以來，瑞士的貨幣基礎已擴大了4倍，至4000億瑞郎，房價和租金正在快速上漲，銀行貸款增長了25%，貸款總額相當於GDP的170%。

In any event, the central bank may have seen no mileage in being a backstop for selling “cheap” francs should the euro fall in the foreign exchange markets once a QE programme starts.

不管怎樣，瑞士央行可能已經看到了，如果量化寬鬆啓動後歐元匯率在外匯市場上下跌，出售“廉價”瑞郎支撐歐元並無益處。

Switzerland will now have to address at least three important problems.

瑞士眼下至少需要解決三大問題。

First, if the franc’s immediate appreciation against the euro is not reversed, it will intensify the deflation that is working its way through the economy. As oil prices started falling, inflation was expected to be around zero — but we should now expect it to far below that, with prices falling substantially.

首先，如果目前瑞郎相對歐元的升值不逆轉，將會加劇正在影響整個瑞士經濟的通縮。在石油價格開始下跌時，人們曾預期瑞士的通脹率會降至零左右，但考慮到物價正大幅下跌，我們現在應當預期通脹率會降至遠低於零的水平。

Second, a stronger franc rate against the euro could lower Swiss economic growth by about 0.7 per cent. It will have a negative effect on business and investment decisions, and will harm exporters, which ship about half their products to countries using the euro. It could spur higher direct investment abroad.

其次，瑞郎兌歐元匯率走高可能會造成瑞士經濟增幅減少約0.7個百分點。這將對商業和投資決策產生負面影響，並損害出口企業，瑞士出口企業有一半左右的產品都發往使用歐元的國家。這有可能會促使瑞士人對海外進行更多的直接投資。

Third, the rise of the franc will expose the central bank to sizeable losses on its assets, about half of which are denominated in euros — though these might simply offset comparable gains made from currency interventions in 2014.

第三，瑞郎的走強將令瑞士央行面臨巨大的資產損失，其資產約有一半以歐元計價——儘管這些損失可能只是剛好抵消了它2014年從干預匯市中獲得的收益。

Only last month, when the central bank reaffirmed its peg policy, it warned of the dangers of local and global deflation, and stated that the currency was still overvalued.

就在上個月，瑞士央行在重申其匯率上限政策時，還警告瑞士及全球有陷入通縮的危險，同時表示瑞郎仍然受到高估。

The abandonment of the peg is, therefore, additionally surprising. Suppressing the value of the Swiss franc did not make local deflation any less likely, and presiding over this latest rise will only make bigger price falls likely. Some European banks have been active in lending the currency for mortgages in eastern Europe. These and other Swiss franc borrowers now face a new deflationary shock as their local debt service and amortisation costs rise.

因此，瑞士央行取消匯率上限的做法就更加令人驚訝。壓低瑞郎匯率並沒有減少瑞士通縮的可能性，而促成這次的上漲只會導致物價的更大幅下降。部分歐洲銀行一直在東歐積極推出瑞郎抵押貸款。隨着當地的償債和攤還成本上升，這些抵押貸款的借款人以及其他借入瑞郎的人現在面臨一個新的通縮衝擊。

As delegates head off to the World Economic Forum in Davos, they might reflect that history is repeating itself in a curious way. In the late 1970s, Switzerland introduced negative deposit rates to stop currency appreciation against the Deutschmark; and, when that did not work, it capped the franc’s value. That policy failed.

在各位參會者啓程參加達沃斯世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)之際，他們可能在想歷史正在以一種奇特的方式重演。20世紀70年代末，瑞士出臺負存款利率以阻止瑞郎對德國馬克升值；當此舉沒有奏效時，瑞士爲瑞郎匯率設置了上限。這一政策失敗了。

This time, Switzerland has pursued the same policies in reverse order.

這一次，瑞士以相反的順序執行了同樣的政策。

Foreign exchange markets are important lightning conductors of global shocks, this time deflation — but central banks acting alone have rarely provided stability. With the ECB on the cusp of implementing QE, that goal seems a long way off.

外匯市場是防範全球性衝擊的重要避雷針（這一次的全球性衝擊是通縮），但各國央行的單打獨鬥很少能帶來穩定性。在歐洲央行即將啓動量化寬鬆之際，要實現這一目標似乎還有很長的路要走。