年 東亞不會爆發戰爭的信心

Few years in recent decades dawned with as much of a sense of pessimism as 2014. One consistent theme in the predictions for the year was that 2014 looked eerily similar to 1914. Most pundits predicted doom and gloom, especially in east Asia. Yet, while there were many horrific events — from thedowning of flight MH17 over Ukraine, to the abduction of hundreds of schoolgirls in Nigeria and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant — we have avoided outright world war. Now that the year is closed, with no repetition of 1914, it may be wise to investigate why the pundits were wrong, particularly on their ideas around the potential for conflict in Asia.

近幾十年來，很少有年份像2014年那樣一開始就充滿那麼多的悲觀情緒。對2014年的預測貫穿了一個主題，即這一年看起來與1914年相似得讓人害怕。大多數學者的預測都是悲觀和令人沮喪的，尤其是對於東亞。然而，雖然發生了許多可怕的事件——從馬航MH17航班在烏克蘭墜落，到尼日利亞數百女學生被綁架，以及“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(Isis)的崛起——但我們避免了全面的世界大戰。現在，2014年已結束，沒有重現1914年的悲劇。探究爲什麼這些學者預測錯了（特別是他們認爲亞洲存在衝突可能性的想法）或許是明智的。

These were no lightweight pundits. The eminent historian Margaret MacMillan, in an essay for Brookings in December 2013, said, “We are witnessing, as much as the world of 1914, shifts in the international power structure, with emerging powers challenging the established ones.” She added, “the same is happening between the US and China now, and also between China and Japan”, and also said that “there is potential for conflict between China and two of its other neighbours — Vietnam and Malaysia — as well.”

這些專家都不是輕量級的。傑出的歷史學家瑪格麗特•麥克米倫(Margaret MacMillan)在2013年12月的一篇爲布魯金斯學會(Brookings)撰寫的文章中說：“像1914年的世界一樣，我們正在經歷國際權力結構的轉換，新興大國正在挑戰老牌大國。”她補充說，“如今，同樣的一幕正發生在美國與中國，以及中國與日本之間”，同時她還表示，“中國與它另外兩個鄰國——越南和馬來西亞——也有爆發衝突的可能性。”

Graham Allison, the famous Harvard professor, also warned that east Asia was headed towards the “Thucydides Trap”, adding: “When a rapidly rising power rivals an established ruling power, trouble ensues.” In early 2013, the then prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that 2013 was looking dangerously like 1913. The Economist also warned at the end of 2013, “A century on, there are uncomfortable parallels with the era that led to the outbreak of the first world war.”

哈佛大學著名教授格雷厄姆•阿利森(Graham Allison)也警告說，東亞已走向“修昔底德陷阱”(Thucydides’s trap)，他並補充道：“當一個迅速崛起的大國與一個老牌霸權國競爭時，麻煩接踵而來。”2013年初，時任盧森堡首相的讓-克洛德•容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)警告稱，2013年看起來像1913年一樣危險。2013年底，《經濟學人》雜誌(The Economist)也警告說，“一個世紀已過去，當今世界卻與那個導致第一次世界大戰爆發的時代有不少相似之處，令人不安。”

I experienced this pessimism personally in Davos in January 2014. Several leading western intellectuals asked me whether war would break out between China and Japan. I was so confident that there would be no war in east Asia that I offered to take bets with ten-to-one odds against myself with eminent western journalists. Two took up my bets. And I will be collecting on these bets when I return to Davos in January.

2014年1月，我在達沃斯親身感受到了這種悲觀情緒。幾位著名西方學者問我中國和日本之間是否會爆發戰爭。我非常有信心東亞不會發生戰爭，以至於我提出以1賠10的賠率與西方知名記者們打賭。兩位記者接受了我的賭約。今年1月回到達沃斯時，我將收取他們的賭注。

Why was I so confident that there would be no war in east Asia, either in the East China Sea or the South China Sea? The simple answer is that I know the Asian dynamic. While many Asian neighbours will make angry nationalist statements (and they have to do so to manage popular nationalist sentiments), they are also careful and pragmatic in their deeds.

爲什麼我如此有信心東亞不會爆發戰爭，無論在東中國海還是南中國海？答案很簡單，因爲我瞭解推動亞洲變化的力量。雖然許多亞洲鄰國會發出憤怒的民族主義聲明（他們必須這樣做來應對普遍的民族主義情緒），但他們的行動是謹慎和務實的。

For over two decades I have been writing about the rise of Asia and the dynamic driving it. There is an extraordinary consensus among east Asian leaders that Asia needs to use this window of opportunity to focus on economic development and growth. War is the biggest obstacle to development. If Asians were truly stupid, they would engage in such wars and derail their enormous development promise. Most Asian leaders, barring North Korea, understand well the dangers of war. Hence, while there will be tensions and rivalries in the region, there will be no wars in the region, in 2014 or in 2015. As 2015 unfolds, I would like to encourage all western pundits to understand the underlying Asian dynamic on its own terms, and not on the basis of western preconceptions.

過去二十多年間，我一直在寫關於亞洲崛起及其推動力量的文章。東亞各國領導人之間有一個了不起的共識：亞洲需要利用當前的機會之窗，把重點放在經濟發展和增長上。戰爭是發展的最大阻礙。如果亞洲人真的愚蠢，他們或會捲入這樣的戰爭，破壞自己巨大的發展前景。大多數亞洲國家（除了朝鮮）的領導人，都很明白戰爭的危險。因此，雖然這一地區會出現局勢緊張和對抗，但無論在2014年還是2015年都不會爆發戰爭。隨着2015年緩緩展開，我想鼓勵所有西方學者根據亞洲本身的情況理解亞洲的根本發展動力，而非將理解建立在西方先入之見的基礎上。