糧食危機或引發世界大戰
The world has a massive food crisis on its hands. The crisis is so big that organizations like the World Bank and the United Nations say there won’t be enough food to feed the global population when it jumps from the current seven billion people to nine billion by 2050.
Some research even suggests a food scarcity crunch as early as 2030 – just 15 years from now.
有些研究甚至認爲，全球糧食危機可能最早2030年就會爆發，也就是說離現在只有15年。The reasons? Severe weather events like droughts and floods, economic hardships, and political unrest in underdeveloped countries, as well as agribusiness expansion.
造成糧食危機的原因，主要是乾旱和洪水等極端氣候環境、經濟困難、欠發達國家的政治動亂以及農業綜合企業的擴張等等。
While many experts say that producing more food will make the crisis go away, others contend it’s not that simple.
有許多專家認爲，只要生產更多的食物，就能解決糧食危機問題，但同時也有一些專家認爲，問題並非這麼簡單。“To address food security, we need a shift in the way we address poverty and inequality in the world,” Stephen Scanlan, a professor of sociology at Ohio University. “There should be a reframing of food as a fundamental human right in a way that governments actually stand by.”
俄亥俄大學社會學教授史蒂芬o斯坎蘭指出：“要解決食品安全問題，我們需要轉變我們解決全球貧困和貧富差距問題的方式。食物應該被確定爲一項基本人權，得到各國政府的真正支持。”But feeding the world is big business. Multinational food companies and retailers are heavily involved in food production. Corporations such as Kraft KRFT 0.21% , ConAgra CAG 0.77% , Cargill, and PepsiCo PEP 0.08% dominate global food distribution.
但餵飽全世界也是一筆大生意。不少跨國食品公司和零售企業都在積極從事食物生產。像卡夫、康尼格拉）、嘉吉和百事可樂）等公司，已經成爲全球糧食分配的主宰者。Companies like Monsanto MON 1.28% , the biggest maker of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) seeds, promote their high tech products as a way to increase food production.
像全球最大的轉基因種子生產商孟山都這樣的公司，則主要通過推銷其高科技產品來提高糧食產量。And those companies are seeing benefits. Global food prices increased by four percent between January and April of this year, according to the World Bank, stopping a decline in food prices starting in August 2012.
這些公司都見到了效益。根據世界銀行的數據，從今年一月到四月，全球食品價格增長了4%，結束了肇始於2012年8月的下跌趨勢。While those figures may please company shareholders, that kind of consolidation and profit puts too much control over food supplies into too few places, according to critics like Scanlan. Beyond the perceived threats from the business world, global food supplies, one analyst argued, are at the mercy of some nations seeking to feed their own populations at the expense of others.
不過斯坎蘭等批評人士指出，雖然這些數據或許能夠取悅企業的股東，但它也會導致少數幾個地方掌握過大的食品控制權。一名分析師還表示，除了來自企業界的威脅以外，全球食品安全還取決於，某些國家是否會以犧牲他國的人口食品安全爲代價來餵飽本國國民。“China is the largest purchaser of farmable land in the world,” said Usha Haley, a professor of business management at West Virginia University. “They’re doing it to acquire resources as they have a huge gap between what they produce and what they use.”
比如，西弗吉尼亞大學工商管理學教授烏沙o哈利指出：“中國是全球可耕種土地的最大買家，他們這樣做是爲了獲得資源。因爲在他們的產出和消耗之間存在着巨大的差距。”Food scarcity now
糧荒已然發生For many, food scarcity is already here. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that 842 million people in the world remain undernourished. And nearly two thirds of them are living in the Asia-Pacific region. One in four children under the age of five is stunted due to malnutrition.
在很多人看來，糧荒已經發生了。聯合國糧農組織的報告稱，全球有8.42億人口營養不良，幾乎其中的三分之二都集中在亞太地區。在五歲以下兒童中，有四分之一因營養不夠而發育不良。Fueling the problem are worldwide diets that rely on an ever smaller group of crops, leaving global food supplies at the mercy of inflation, insects, disease, and bad weather. Also, there’s the increasing creation of inedible products — such as fuel — from crops that normally get put on the kitchen table.
雪上加霜的是，目前全球人口依賴的農作物種類越來越少，使全球糧食產量越來越多地受到通貨膨脹、蟲災、疫病和極端天氣的影響，另外，現在人們經常使用糧食製造一些不能吃的產品（如能源），這也使它們無法被送上餐桌。“What concerns us is biofuel expansion,” said Kristin Sundell, director of policy and campaigns for ActionAid, an international group that focuses on ending poverty.
致力於解決貧困問題的國際組織“行動援助”的政策與活動主任克里斯汀o桑德爾表示：“我們很擔心生物燃料的擴張。”“We’ve seen a 50 percent expansion in recent years in using crops like sugar, corn and soy to create fuels for gas tanks, and that’s taking away food crops from people and making what there is more expensive,” Sundell said.
他表示：“近年來，糖、玉米和大豆等糧食作物被用來提煉汽油的數量，已經擴張了50%，這一方面從人們那裏搶走了農作物，一方面也使糧食變得更貴了。”Sundell added that the large-scale investment by private agriculture businesses to buy up more farm land in poor countries is forcing local growers out of business. Farmers who do have land in areas like East Africa often face a Faustian bargain, said Scott Ickes, a professor of public health and nutrition at the College of William & Mary.
桑德爾補充道，一些私人農業公司在窮國大規模投資購買土地，迫使當地種植者無法再以農爲生。威廉與瑪麗學院公共健康與營養教授斯科特o伊克斯指出，東非等地的一些擁有土地的農民經常面臨這種“浮士德式的交易”。“Farmers have to choose between growing specialty cash crops like cocoa, tea and coffee — or food staples to make a living,” Ickes said. “They usually pick the cash crops as it’s a challenge for them to make ends meet.”
“農民必須選擇是種植可可、茶和咖啡等專門的經濟作物，還是選擇種植養家餬口的主食作物。由於生活艱難，他們經常會選擇種植經濟作物。”伊克斯說。Helping those help themselves
助人即自助While agricultural innovations like genetic modified organisms (GMOs) — hailed by many and condemned by others – are often offered up as solutions, one analyst said simple ways to distribute and store food are needed.
儘管有人認爲，全球糧食危機的解決方案在於轉基因技術等農業創新（雖然轉基因也受到了很多非議與指責），但也有一名分析人士表示，我們還需要一些簡單的分配和儲存糧食的方法。“A lot of food rots because of bad storage facilities in poor countries, and bad infrastructure in those areas prevents delivery of food to a lot of the poor,” said College of William & Mary’s Ickes.
威廉與瑪麗學院的伊克斯表示：“許多糧食之所以腐爛，是因爲一些窮國的儲存設備不好。在這些國家，糟糕的基建設施，導致糧食不能分配到很多窮人手裏。”A key element in all this is helping those in need learn how to take care of themselves, said Mark Rieger, dean of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Delaware.
特拉華大學農業與自然資源學院院長馬克o裏格爾認爲，解決這個問題的重要一環在於教會那些需要幫助的國家如何進行自助。“We have an agricultural program so people can develop their own food,” Rieger said. “I just got back from Kenya where we bring students here and then send them back home to help their own countries.”
“我們有一個農業項目，讓人們可以種植自己的糧食。我剛剛從肯尼亞回來，而且還帶回來了一些肯尼亞學生，等他們學成後，我們會讓他們回國幫助他們自己的國家。”Wars over food?
搶奪糧食的戰爭？The World Bank reports that to avoid food shortages by 2050, the global community needs to produce at least 50 percent more food than it does today.
世界銀行的報告指出，要想避免2050年出現糧食短缺，全球社會需要把糧食產量在今天的基礎上至少提高50%。Many analysts say they are hopeful the world is waking up to the food scarcity problem, as more governments like the U.S. and those in Europe, ramp up efforts to provide aid to developing countries.
許多分析人士認爲，全球已經開識意識到糧荒問題，比如美國和歐洲各國政府都加大了對發展中國家的援助力度。But a clear consensus on exactly how to end the growing food shortage remains elusive. And that could lead to even greater disasters, said West Virginia’s Haley.
但西弗吉尼亞大學的哈利表示，目前國際社會對如何解決日益顯著的糧食緊缺仍缺乏共識。而這甚至可能導致更大的災難。“The food scarcity problem is serious. I think the next world wars could be fought over resources like food and water,” she said.
她表示：“糧食短缺問題非常嚴重，我認爲對糧食和水等資源的爭奪，有可能引爆下一場世界大戰。”（財富中文網）
