朝鮮高層金正恩着手大清洗是危險信號
An already volatile northeast Asia may be on the brink of more turbulence. Just when you thought it could not get any more unpredictable, reports of internal turmoil suggest the black hole that is North Korea just grew bigger, portending more trouble.
本就局勢不穩的東北亞可能滑向更大的動盪。就在你以爲朝鮮局勢不可能變得更加不可預測之際，關於朝鮮內政混亂局面的報道表明，黑洞變得更大了，這預示着會有更多的麻煩。It is not just that Jang Song Thaek, brother-in-law of former leader Kim Jong Il, has been purged and that two of his aides were reportedly part of a wave of public executions.
這不僅僅是說朝鮮前任領導人金正日(Kim Jong Il)的妹夫張成澤(Jang Song Thaek)遭到了整肅，以及有報道稱張成澤的兩名助手被公開處決。Mr Jang was widely considered one of the powers behind the throne advising the boy general, Kim Jong Un. Whether or not Mr Jang was a closet reformer, sympathetic to a Chinese-style opening, is likely to be revealed by future developments. But one near certainty is that ill-conceived, erratic and potentially dangerous behaviour looms.
外界普遍認爲，張成澤是朝鮮娃娃將軍金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的攝政王，是朝鮮最有權勢的人物之一。張成澤私底下是否是一個改革者，以及是否贊同中國式的開放政策，日後或許能夠揭曉。但幾乎確定無疑的一個勢頭是，朝鮮眼看着很可能做出欠缺考慮、反覆無常而且可能帶來危險的行爲。
If, as appears to be the case, the latest wave of purges (he had already removed a score of senior ageing generals) reflects a consolidation of Mr Kim’s power, we may be in for a wild ride. How else to explain his baffling behaviour?
如果最新這波整肅行動是因爲金正恩在鞏固權力（情況似乎確實如此，金正恩已經撤換掉了十幾位資深的老將軍），我們可能會看到局勢變得更加動盪。他那令人困惑的行爲還有其他的解釋嗎？North Korean officials say they want foreign investment in new special economic zones. But then they shut down the one showcase experiment, the Kaesong Industrial Zone, where South Korean companies have employed 52,000 North Koreans.
朝鮮官員表示，他們希望外國人到朝鮮新設立的經濟特區投資。但他們曾經關閉一個樣本項目——開城工業區(Kaesong Industrial Zone)。在開城工業區，韓國公司僱傭了5.2萬名朝鮮工人。Mr Kim builds dolphinariums, amusement parks and a ski slope to encourage tourism, but takes an 85-year-old American tourist hostage because he fought in the Korean war.
金正恩建造了海豚館、遊樂園和一條滑雪坡道來刺激旅遊，但他扣押了一名參加過朝鮮戰爭的85歲的美國遊客。Then there are Mr Kim’s whimsical priorities for engaging foreigners. While he snubbed Eric Schmidt, the head of Google, he hangs out with US basketball star Dennis Rodman, who is to help coach North Korea’s team. This is on top of reports of a wave of repression, including executions for the “crime” of viewing South Korean movies.
還有，在與外國人打交道的時候，金正恩最看重什麼呢？他的態度顯得變化無常。他冷落谷歌董事長埃裏克•施密特(Eric Schmidt)，卻與美國籃球明星丹尼斯•羅德曼(Dennis Rodman)關係友好，後者將成爲朝鮮國家籃球隊的一名教練。另外還有一系列鎮壓行動的報道，包括以觀看韓國電影的“罪名”處決犯人。It all seems more like an overgrown spoiled child lacking adult supervision than the leader of a state building intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. And that, for long-term North Korea watchers, smells like trouble.
所有這些看起來讓金正恩更像是一個缺乏管教、被慣壞了的大孩子，而不是一個建造洲際彈道導彈和核武器的國家的領導人。在長期關注朝鮮問題的人士看來，這可能意味着麻煩。Tell-tale signs include reports of activity at a long-range missile site and hints of activity at a nuclear test site. Moreover, South Korean officials have told its parliament that Pyongyang has deployed attack helicopters and rockets in an area near the Northern Limit Line, a disputed sea border west of the Korean coast.
令人不安的跡象包括一個遠程導彈基地相關活動的報道和核試驗場所的活動跡象。此外，韓國官員在本國議會上表示，平壤在靠近有爭議的海上分界線——“北方限制線”(Northern Limit Line,NLL)的地區部署了攻擊型直升機和火箭。Sound familiar? These are all time-honoured North Korean provocations designed to win attention, boost the military and serve as blackmail for aid. Pyongyang has been trying for many years to perfect an ICBM, most recently a road-mobile one, so far with modest success.
聽起來有些熟悉？這些全都是朝鮮由來已久的旨在吸引注意力、提升軍力和索要援助而進行的挑釁活動。平壤方面多年來一直在努力完善洲際彈道導彈技術，最近研製的公路機動洲際彈道導彈取得了初步成果。There are also fears that the North, the only nation to stage a nuclear test in the 21st century, may be considering a fourth test. And if it provokes a military clash with Seoul, it would be an encore to the sinking of the Cheonan, which appeared to have been hit with a torpedo in 2010.
人們還擔心，朝鮮可能正在考慮進行第四次核試驗。朝鮮是21世紀唯一進行了核試驗的國家。如果它挑起與韓國的軍事衝突，韓國“天安號”軍艦沉沒的事件將再次上演。2010年，從表面看來，“天安號”軍艦被一隻魚雷擊沉。North Korean provocation is also intended to create a climate of siege in order to tighten internal control, which is said to be happening now. Similar behaviour was seen in March, when Mr Kim told foreign embassies to evacuate because war was about to break out.
朝鮮進行挑釁的目的還在於創造一種遭受圍攻的氛圍以便加強國內的控制——據說現在就是這種情況。今年3月份朝鮮作出了類似的動作，當時金正恩以戰爭即將爆發爲由，要求外國大使館人員撤離。Any such developments would also underscore that Mr Kim is faithfully backing the “military first” policies of his father. If the recent internal purges reflect a power struggle, they may have been over efforts by some to reallocate resources enjoyed by the military.
諸如此類的情況還突顯出，金正恩堅決支持其父親的“先軍”政策。如果說最近的國內整肅反映出權力的爭鬥，那麼這些爭鬥也可能是一些人爭搶軍方資源的努力。In any case, this all bodes for still more volatility in northeast Asia. New missile or nuclear tests would put more pressure on China to cut off its client in Pyongyang and further test US-China relations. Similarly, a naval clash risks undermining South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s “trust-building” efforts, a tough transactional approach to North-South relations – and, more troubling, provoking a South Korean response that could easily escalate.
不管怎樣，所有這些預示着東北亞局勢將會更加動盪不安。新導彈或核試驗將讓中國有更大的壓力放棄對朝鮮的庇護，並將進一步考驗美中關係。同樣，如果朝韓海軍爆發衝突，就有可能破壞韓國總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)“建立信任關係”的努力，而且更麻煩的是可能引發韓國的迴應，這很容易導致事態升級。While hard facts about events in North Korea remain scarce and unreliable, it has been a pattern that when Pyongyang is out of the spotlight for a while, it finds a way to make headlines. Stay tuned.
關於朝鮮局勢，我們依然沒有掌握多少確鑿可靠的情況，但朝鮮已經形成一種行爲模式，如果有一段時間不受關注，它就會設法登上報紙頭條。敬請關注。
