時事政治:普京爲何支持巴沙爾

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A year ago, I would have thought twice before using the expression “proxy war” to describe the way that Russians see the civil war in Syria. The allegiances and motives in the conflict seemed too complex. Now things are even more complicated: Hizbollah is a direct participant. But I feel more confident describing what is happening in Syria as a proxy war between Russia and the west.

一年前，是否使用“代理人戰爭”來描述俄羅斯看待敘利亞內戰的態度，我會三思而行。這場衝突中，誰支持誰，動機如何，似乎過於複雜。如今事情更加錯綜糾纏：真主黨(Hizbollah)已直接參與進來。但我現在可以更加確定地說，敘利亞的衝突就是俄羅斯與西方之間的代理人戰爭。

There are a number of rational geopolitical reasons why Vladimir Putin has chosen to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Russia has, after all, been doing business with Syria. Furthermore, given Russia’s domestic problems with Islamist terror, the president may prefer the secular devil we know in Damascus to potential jihadis we do not. Mr Putin may also want to show young dissidents at home that concerted opposition is not as inevitably successful as it might have seemed after Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)爲何選擇支持巴沙爾•阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)政權是有諸多理性的地緣政治原因的。畢竟，俄羅斯一直在與敘利亞做生意。此外，由於俄羅斯國內存在伊斯蘭恐怖主義問題，普京或許更願意讓我們熟知的世俗魔鬼執掌大馬士革，而不是讓我們一無所知的聖戰分子掌權。普京或許還想向國內年輕的異見人士表明，在突尼斯、埃及和利比亞之後，齊心協力的反對不一定像看起來那樣必然獲得成功。

But one cannot overlook the emotional argument for Russia’s engagement in Syria. By putting our weapons on the opposite side to the west, Mr Putin is tugging at a Russian heartstring. Our country’s place in history and the world today is Russia’s unifying obsession.

但我們不能忽視俄羅斯參與敘利亞衝突的情感因素。普京把俄羅斯的武器交到西方的敵對者手中，由此撥動了俄羅斯人的心絃。俄羅斯在歷史和當今世界中的地位，一直是俄羅斯人的共同夢想。

In Soviet times we used Leninism as a pretext to preach and gain influence wherever possible. The motive was not ideological zeal but our sense of national pride. One popular expression, often used as a drinking toast, summed up the Soviet common take on the external politics: “Let them be afraid of us!”

在蘇聯時期，蘇聯人打着列寧主義的旗號，不遺餘力地大肆宣揚，擴大影響。背後的動機並非狂熱的意識形態，而是蘇聯人的民族自豪感。蘇聯人常用的一句祝酒詞一語道破蘇聯大衆對外部政治的態度：“讓他們畏懼我們！”

And afraid they were – until, that is, the end of the cold war. Today, the recovery of some of this past greatness is under way – and some would measure its success by how much we are feared. Remember this when you consider how Mr Putin sent soldiers storming into Chechnya and Georgia. But the business of recovering Russia’s past geopolitical might is far from done.

他們確實畏懼蘇聯——直到冷戰結束。如今，俄羅斯正在恢復昔日的某些輝煌，而有些人就是用世人畏懼俄羅斯的程度來衡量此舉是否成功。在思考普京派兵襲擊車臣和格魯吉亞時，請謹記這一點。但恢復俄羅斯昔日地緣政治力量的努力遠未完成。

What makes Russians furious now is the suggestion that their country is not important. Whenever I hear western politicians imply that, my heart sinks. It sounds like a provocation. I can just see the expression on our president’s face. In my imagination, he hisses: “I’ll teach you what ‘not very important’ means!” And I know that, for that moment, the country would be behind him.

如今讓俄羅斯惱火的是，西方表示俄羅斯無足輕重。不管我何時聽到西方政客如此暗示，我的心就沉下來。這聽起來不啻於挑釁。我幾乎能看到我們總統臉上的表情。在我的想象中，他不屑地說：“我讓你們明白‘無足輕重’到底是什麼意思！”我知道，這一刻舉國支持他。

That is why Russians celebrated the Syrian army’s victory in Qusair as their own. They are not much interested in Syria, certainly not in the dismal humanitarian situation. But a major defeat of the rebels is seen as a sweet victory over the west. You can hear them now: “Do you still think we are not important?”

因此，俄羅斯人把敘利亞軍隊在古賽爾的勝利當成自己的勝利一樣來慶祝。俄羅斯人對敘利亞並不感興趣，對敘利亞悲慘的人道主義境況肯定也漠不關心。但叛軍大敗被當作針對西方取得的愉快勝利。如今你能聽到這樣的話：“你們還覺得我們不重要嗎？”

It is difficult to say how significant this emotional drive has been in the Russian decision to engage in Syria, but appeals to national greatness have certainly become more important for Mr Putin of late. During his first two terms as president (from 2000 to 2008) his personal reputation benefited greatly from rising living standards – despite the common knowledge that it was largely due to the rise of oil prices. That era is over and he now needs to find fresh planks for his political platform.

俄羅斯決定插手敘利亞事務時，很難說這種情感動力從中發揮了多大的作用。但對於近來的普京而言，訴諸於民族輝煌必然更加重要了。在他之前的兩個總統任期內（2000-2008年），俄羅斯人生活水平的提高爲他贏得了不少個人聲譽——儘管衆所周知，生活水平提高主要是油價上漲推動的。這樣的時代已經結束，如今普京必須爲他的政治平臺找到新的支撐點。

It is not clear where this will lead, but there is a grim irony in it. One opposition activist, having heard of Mr Assad winning in Qusair with Russian arms, said: “That’s all very good. The west is obsessed with the Islamists, and pacifies Putin as a lesser evil, sacrificing us, the Russian democratic dissent. When the west was afraid of Brezhnev, the dissidents here had all its attention. So let it be afraid of Russia again!”

這種局面將何去何從尚不清楚，但其中的諷刺意味濃厚。一名反對派活動人士聽到阿薩德用俄羅斯的武器取得古賽爾勝利後表示：“這好極了。西方忙着應付伊斯蘭主義者，對普京採取綏靖政策，認爲他不是那麼邪惡，於是犧牲我們這些俄羅斯的民主異見人士。當年西方畏懼勃列日涅夫(Brezhnev)時，異見人士是西方關注的焦點。那就讓他們再次畏懼俄羅斯吧！”