中國樓市風險的誤解與真相 China property boom days are over but risks of crisis remain low

As China’s equity markets cool and its currency is devalued, attention will return to the question of whether its property market is heading for a fall. In my view the boom days are over, but with buyers required to put at least 30 per cent cash down, the risks of a crisis are low.

隨着中國股市降溫和人民幣貶值，人們的注意力將重新回到中國房地產市場是否步入下行通道的問題。在我看來，房地產繁榮期已經結束，但由於房地產買家被要求支付至少30%的首付款，發生危機的風險很低。

The housing market is one of the most important parts of the economy, and one of the most misunderstood. Important because residential real estate and construction account directly for more than 10 per cent of gross domestic product. Misunderstood because few observers appear to grasp the structure of the residential property market.

住房市場是中國經濟最重要的領域之一，也是被誤解程度最深的領域之一。重要是因爲住宅房地產直接佔到10%以上的國內生產總值(GDP)。誤解是因爲似乎很少有觀察人士真正理解中國住宅房地產市場的結構。

Under the Communist party most workers have been allowed to buy their government housing at a steep discount to market value, with the result that the home ownership rate is among the highest in the world: 89 per cent, compared with about 64 per cent in the US and the UK. But this does not mean the appetite for new homes has been sated. A large share of homes are substandard, so demand for upgrading is significant. Only 55 per cent of the population is urban, a share that will continue to rise, driving demand for housing.

在黨管一切的時代，大部分工人被允許以大幅低於市場價的價格購買政府住房，結果是中國住房擁有率高達89%，躋身世界最高水平之列，而美國和英國的住房擁有率大約爲64%。但這並不意味着中國人購置新房的願望都得到了滿足。相當大一部分住房不合標準，因此升級需求非常可觀。只有55%的人口住在城鎮，城鎮人口比例還會繼續上升，推動住房需求。

Almost all new homes sold in China are apartments, not single family homes. Some 80 per cent of those apartments are bought one year or more before construction of the building will be finished, known as presale. That is one reason it takes time for new Chinese cities to fill up.

在中國銷售的幾乎所有住房都是公寓，而非單戶住宅。約80%的公寓是在建成一年或更早之前賣出的，這被稱爲預售。這是中國新城市需要一段時間纔會人氣上升的一個原因。

In Zhengzhou, for example, featured on many lists of “ghost cities”, people bought apartments in a new area with the intention of not moving in for several years, based on the view that house prices would be higher after the subway lines were completed. The first line has since opened, and the new area is thriving. This pattern is repeated across the country.

例如，在衆多“鬼城”榜單上被列入的鄭州，人們在新區買房的意圖就是要在幾年後才住進去，他們的決策依據是房價將會隨着地鐵線路的開通而上漲。自那之後第一條地鐵開通，新城開始繁榮起來。這種格局在全國各地重複出現。

One of the biggest misconceptions about China’s property market is that most buyers are speculators. In fact the residential market is driven by owner-occupiers. Data collected from sales managers across the country reveal that during the past three years less than 10 per cent of buyers were investors.

關於中國房地產市場最大的一個誤解是，大多數買家是投機者。實際上，住宅市場由自有住房者驅動。從全國各地的銷售經理們收集來的數據顯示，在過去3年期間，投資買家不足10%。

The 9 per cent average annual growth in residential property prices over the past 10 years may appear the hallmark of a bubble, but it was accompanied by 12 per cent average annual nominal urban income growth.

過去10年間住房價格年均上漲9%貌似符合泡沫的特徵，但與此相伴隨的是城鎮居民名義收入年均12%的增長。

Unprecedented income growth not only supports China’s remarkable consumption story; it also underpins a healthy property market. During the past decade inflation-adjusted urban income rose 7 per cent or more every year, while real rural income increased 7 per cent or more for each of the past nine years. In contrast over the past decade real income rose at an average annual pace of 1 per cent in the US and 0.3 per cent in the UK.

史無前例的收入增長不僅支持了中國引人矚目的消費故事，還支持了健康的房地產市場。過去10年期間，經通脹調整後的城鎮居民收入每年增長7%以上，同時在過去9年間農村居民實際收入每年增長7%。相比之下，過去10年期間美國和英國的實際收入年均增長率分別爲1%和0.3%。

An important precondition for a bubble in any asset class is a high level of leverage, because in the absence of high leverage the consequences of a sharp price decline are limited. In China there is low leverage among homebuyers because about 15 per cent of buyers in the past three years have paid cash, while for those using mortgages a minimum deposit of 30 per cent is required.

任何資產類別出現泡沫的一個重要前提是很高的槓桿水平，這是因爲如果沒有高的槓桿水平，價格大幅下跌的後果就是有限的。在中國，購房者的槓桿水平較低，因爲在過去3年大約15%的買家是全款購房，而貸款購房者被要求最低支付30%的首付款。