想跟中國抗衡 加拿大和美國應該合併
When Americans think about Canada -- and that doesn't happen often -- they usually think of us as the nice, predictable guy next door who never plays his stereo too loud. Even Rob Ford, Toronto's ranting, crack-smoking mayor, has barely dented our squeaky-clean image.
美國人想到加拿大的時候不多，如果想到，他們一般會把我們想成性情和善、作息規律的鄰居，從來不把音響調得太大的鄰居。即便是誇誇其談、吸食霹靂可卡因的多倫多市長羅布・福特(Rob Ford)，也沒有怎麼玷污我們的純潔形象。But Americans shouldn't just think more about Canada. They should consider building on the two countries' free-trade deal and forming a more perfect North American union. It is past time for the U.S. and Canada to eliminate their border -- either by creating a customs and monetary union or, more radically, by merging outright into a single nation-state or a European Union-style partnership.
但對於美國人來說，只是多花點時間想想加拿大還是不夠的。他們應該考慮如何強化兩國自由貿易協定，形成一個更加完美的北美聯盟。美國和加拿大早就該取消它們之間的邊界了，具體辦法可以是建立一個關稅與貨幣聯盟，也可以做得更徹底，直接合併成一個單一民族國家或歐盟那樣的合夥關係。Such a merger makes perfect sense. No two countries on Earth are as socially and economically integrated as the U.S. and Canada. They share geography, values and a gigantic border. Their populations study, travel and do business together and intermarry in great numbers. If they were corporations (or European states), they would have merged a long time ago. And each has what the other needs: The U.S. has capital, manpower, technology and the world's strongest military; Canada has vast reserves of undeveloped resources.
這樣的合併完全說得通。地球上沒有哪兩個國家的社會、經濟融合程度趕得上美國和加拿大。兩國擁有共同的地理條件、價值觀和漫長的邊境線，兩國人民一起學習、旅遊、做生意，通婚現象也普遍。如果兩國是企業（或歐洲國家），它們早就合併了。而且雙方都擁有對方所需要的東西：美國有資金、人力、技術和世界上最強的軍隊，加拿大擁有龐大的未開發資源儲備。
Of course, even the most mild-mannered Canadian may sputter at the prospect of being swallowed up by the U.S., and Americans may wonder about the wisdom of absorbing their huge neighbor. But it needn't be so radical. Nobody is proposing that Canada become the 51st state.
當然，即使是最溫和的加拿大人，想到加拿大被美國吞併的可能性，也可能氣得語無倫次；而美國人則有可能懷疑一下子吸納這個龐大的鄰國是否明智。但合併不一定非得那麼激進。沒有誰提議讓加拿大成爲美國第51個州。Like modern businesses, modern nations must constantly recalibrate their economic and political models. The smartest people in a room prevail until a smarter group comes along. And unless winners adapt, they eventually lose out, in economic and political life as in nature. Today's U.S. or Canada could become tomorrow's Portugal or Greece. In the competitive and interconnected world of the 21st century, countries that stand still will be left behind.
和很多現代企業一樣，現代國家必須不斷校正自己的經濟和政治模式。一屋子裏面最聰明的人會佔據上風，但等更聰明的人進來的時候就不一樣了。如果勝者不適應新的環境，他們終將出局。在大自然中如此，在經濟和政治生活中也是如此。今天的美國或加拿大有可能成爲明天的葡萄牙或希臘。在21世紀競爭激烈而又彼此勾連的世界裏，僵化不動的國家將落後於人。The two North American neighbors increasingly find themselves staring down the barrel of state capitalism, as practiced above all by China, whose state-owned enterprises and sovereign-wealth funds have made a concerted effort to capture markets and resources. In October, the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook database forecast that by 2018, China's economy will be bigger than that of the U.S. -- and Asian economies will be bigger than those of the U.S., Canada, Germany, Britain, Italy, France and Russia combined.
我們這兩個北美鄰國越來越發現自己正面對着國家資本主義的炮口。奉行國家資本主義最積極的是中國，它的國有企業和主權財富基金步調一致地奪取市場和資源。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)數據庫10月份預測，到2018年中國經濟規模將超過美國，亞洲經濟體的總規模將超過美國、加拿大、德國、英國、意大利、法國和俄羅斯的總和。If Canada and the U.S. were to join forces, the tables might well be turned. The North American neighbors would become an even more formidable superpower, with an economy larger than the European Union's and a land mass bigger than South America's. The new union would top the world in energy, minerals, water, arable land and technology, and all of it would be protected by the U.S. military. Size matters.
如果加拿大和美國聯合起來，形勢就很有可能逆轉。北美兩鄰國將成爲一個更加強大的超級大國：經濟規模超過歐盟，國土面積超過南美。新的聯盟將在能源、礦產、水資源、耕地和技術方面稱霸世界，而這一切都將受到美國軍事力量的保護。規模很重要。Canadians have traditionally bristled at the thought of falling under the sway of the U.S., but without a deeper cross-border partnership, we face some grim existential challenges. With its small, aging population and relatively small economy, Canada lacks the resources to develop and defend its gigantic piece of real estate. Through a series of aggressive buyout attempts and transactions, China has targeted Canada's resources and empty landmass. In 2007, Russia used a small submarine to symbolically plant its flag on the ocean floor beneath the North Pole and underscore its claim to a large swath of the resource-rich Arctic, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been pushing the U.N. to affirm his claims to the region.
在過去，加拿大人一想到聽任美國擺佈的可能場景就怒髮衝冠；但如果不加強跨境夥伴關係，我們就會面臨事關生死存亡的嚴峻考驗。加拿大人口稀少且正在老齡化，經濟規模又相對較小，因此缺少必要的資源來開發和保衛其遼闊的疆土。通過一系列激進的收購行動和交易，中國已經瞄準了加拿大的資源和空曠地皮。2007年，俄羅斯的一艘小型潛艇在北極之下的海底象徵性地插了一面國旗，強調俄對資源豐富的北極大片地區的權利，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾・普京(Vladimir Putin)也一直在推動聯合國確認他對該地區的所有權主張。The U.S. faces serious challenges of its own. It must create millions of jobs for its relatively young population, and even as its political system grows more sclerotic, it must compete for markets, resources and Arctic access with the aggressive practitioners of state capitalism.
美國自己也面臨着嚴峻的挑戰。它必須爲其相對年輕的人口創造數百萬的就業崗位；在其政治體系變得日益僵化之際，它又必須跟國家資本主義的激進踐行者爭奪市場、資源和北極地區的使用權。Truth be told, the merger of the U.S. and Canada is already well under way. As many as one in 10 Canadians (more than 3 million people) live full- or part-time in the U.S., and an estimated 1 million Americans live in Canada. As of 2010, U.S. enterprises controlled about 10% of Canada's assets, 17% of its revenues and 13% of its corporate profits, according to Statistics Canada. Canadians bought more goods and services from Americans than did the 340 million people living in the European Union -- a population 10 times as large.
實話實說吧，美國和加拿大的合併其實早就在進行。10個加拿大人當中就有一人永久或臨時地居住在美國，總共超過300萬人。居住在加拿大的美國人估計有100萬。據加拿大統計局(Statistics Canada)數據，截至2010年，美國企業控制着加拿大10%左右的資產、17%的收入和13%的公司利潤。加拿大人從美國人那裏購買的商品和服務比生活在歐盟內的3.4億人從美國買的還多――歐盟的人口可是加拿大的10倍。A still deeper integration could drive major economic growth. Canada's hinterland is largely without infrastructure or development, even though it contains enormous untapped natural resources. Political disputes have also stranded some of the world's most promising hydroelectric and tidal power prospects in the Canadian provinces of Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Nova Scotia.
再進一步融合的話，則有可能形成強勁的經濟增長。加拿大內陸地區雖然蘊藏着巨量的自然資源有待開採，但那些地區基本上沒有基礎設施，沒有開發。加拿大魁北克、不列顛哥倫比亞、馬尼托巴、紐芬蘭、新斯科舍這些省份一些最有前景的水電站和潮汐發電站項目，也因政治上的糾紛而擱淺。Despite the powerful logic of a U.S.-Canada merger, the obstacles remain daunting. Both countries are divided politically and heavily regionalized. To execute so audacious a move would require a level of statesmanship now lacking in both countries.
儘管美加合併有着充分的理由，障礙仍然令人望而生畏。兩國都存在政治上的兩極化和嚴重的區域分化。要執行一場如此大膽的行動，必須具備相應的政治才能，然而這是目前兩個國家都缺乏的。But remember, the Europeans pulled off something far more dramatic, uniting populations that shared no language and had slaughtered one another for centuries. Other recent examples of deeper integration include the Eastern Caribbean Economic and Monetary Union and the Economic Community of West African States. They all did it by opening their borders to trade and travel -- while at the same time leaving governments intact.
但別忘了，歐洲人取得了更戲劇性的成就，把沒有共同語言、數百年來互相殘殺的人口都統一了起來。近期其他加深融合的例子還有東加勒比經濟與貨幣聯盟(Eastern Caribbean Economic and Monetary Union)和西非國家經濟共同體(Economic Community of West African States)。它們加深融合的辦法都是針對貿易和旅遊開放邊境――同時保持各自政府不變。Opinion surveys about an outright merger are scant, but as far back as 1964, a poll showed support from 49% of Canadians. In 2007, the World Values Survey Association, a research network of thousands of social scientists, found that about 77% of Americans and 41% of Canadians said they would opt for political union if it meant a better quality of life. In 2011, another poll by Harris/Decima showed that 65% of Canadians backed greater integration with the U.S. and supported a plan to eliminate the border by blending U.S. and Canadian customs, immigration, security and law enforcement efforts.
有關直接合並的民意調查很少，但早在1964年的時候，就有調查顯示49%的加拿大人持支持態度。2007年，由數千社會科學家組成的研究網絡“世界價值觀調查協會”(World Values Survey Association)發現，77%的美國人和41%的加拿大人說，如果組建政治聯盟能夠提高生活質量，那麼他們就會選擇組建政治聯盟。2011年Harris/Decima的另一項調查顯示，65%的加拿大人支持與美國加強融合，並支持一項通過整合美加海關、移民、安全和執法行動來清除邊界的計劃。Those who oppose such a merger are on the wrong side of history. When the North American Free Trade Agreement passed in 1987, the U.S. and Canada (along with Mexico) began a mutually beneficial process of integration that now needs strengthening. Untended, the border has become clogged, damaging trade and tourism. And the wolves are at the door. Just this year China, Inc. picked off a large Canadian oil company and a large American food processor and exporter, without promising either country any reciprocal buyout privileges in China.
反對合並的人站在了歷史潮流的對立面。1987年北美自由貿易協定(North American Free Trade Agreement)通過的時候，美國和加拿大（以及墨西哥）開啓了一段互惠互利的融合進程，現在這種融合需要加強。不加管理的邊境已經變得擁堵起來，損害了貿易和旅遊。而且狼羣已來到門口。就在今年，中國拿下加拿大一家大型石油企業和美國一家大型食品加工出口企業，但並沒有向這兩個國家承諾任何在華收購特權。Serious discussion of a merger should be a top priority for both the U.S. and Canada. The continental neighbors need one another more now than ever before, and the status quo grows less viable by the day.
認真討論合併事宜，應當成爲美國和加拿大的優先要務。兩個同屬一個大洲的鄰國現在比以往任何時候都更加需要對方，而現狀正一天比一天難以爲繼。
