日韓貨幣互換協議前景恐生變數
Japan may take steps to roll back an emergency financial lifeline with South Korea in response to a flare-up over contested islands, in what would be a departure from the neighbors' tradition of keeping economic affairs separate from territorial disagreements.
韓日兩國間貨幣互換協議規模擴大措施到期後日本可能不會再予以延長，此舉算是日本對韓日之間島嶼主權之爭出現激化的一個迴應。這和日本歷來奉行的經濟事務和領土爭端互不干擾的傳統是相違背的。Senior members of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Cabinet held a special meeting on Tuesday morning to discuss a response to the recent dispute with Seoul over the islands, effectively controlled by South Korea, which calls them the Dokdo Islands, while Japan refers to them as the Takeshima Islands. They are also known as the Liancourt Rocks.
日本首相野田佳彥(Yoshihiko Noda)週二上午召集高級內閣成員舉行了一次特別會議，以討論日本政府應該對日韓間近日爆發的島嶼主權之爭做出何種迴應。這些島嶼由韓國控制，被韓方稱爲“獨島”(Dokdo Islands)，日本稱之爲“竹島”(Takeshima Islands)，這些島嶼在國際上還被稱作“利揚庫爾巖”(Liancourt Rocks)。After the meeting, Finance Minister Jun Azumi said a decision has yet to be made on whether to extend a currency-swap agreement with South Korea.
會議結束後，日本財務大臣安住淳(Jun Azumi)說，日本政府尚未決定是否延長韓日兩國間的一項貨幣互換協議。
'We are at the drawing board regarding what we will do about this agreement,' Mr. Azumi said. He declined to comment on what he said at the meeting on the swap agreement.
安住淳說，有關日本政府將如何處理這項協議，我們目前還處於討論階段。安住淳拒絕談論他在相關討論會上都說了些什麼。Mr. Noda is trying to diffuse a separate territorial spat with China, over which he has been criticized by opposition parties for being too soft.
野田佳彥正試圖化解中日之間的另一場領土爭端，日本國內的反對黨批評野田在中日領土爭端問題上過於軟弱。Anti-Japanese protests erupted across China after Japanese activists landed on one of the islands in that dispute Sunday, with Chinese media keeping up the rhetoric Monday. 'The national strength of China, as long as its growth continues, will become the bargaining chips that force Japan to back off,' wrote the Global Times, a popular Chinese tabloid with nationalist leanings, in an English editorial.
日本活動人士週日登上中日存在主權爭議的島嶼後(中國稱這些島嶼爲釣魚島，日本稱之爲尖閣列島)，中國多個地區爆發了反日抗議活動，中國媒體週一繼續就這一問題發表觀點。中國國內帶民族主義傾向的小報《環球時報》在一篇英文社論中寫道，只要國家實力跟得上，這些力量一定會轉化成要求日本後退的籌碼。The Japanese activists landed on the Japanese-controlled islands─which are also claimed by China and Taiwan and known as Senkaku in Japan and as Diaoyu in Chinese─after activists from Hong Kong landed there last week, later to be deported by Japan.
日本活動人士是在香港保釣人士上週登陸釣魚島之後登上日方控制的這一島嶼的。香港保釣人士後來遭到日本的驅逐。中國大陸和臺灣都聲稱對釣魚島擁有主權。The territorial spat between Tokyo and Seoul began when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited the Liancourt Rocks earlier this month.
韓國總統李明博(Lee Myung-bak)本月早些時候登上利揚庫爾巖，隨後韓日兩國間爆發了這場領土爭端。The two countries agreed in October to expand the currency-swap line─an agreement to temporarily lend each other dollars-to $70 billion from $13 billion for one year. The increase had been requested by South Korea, which was concerned about potential capital outflows resulting from the European debt crisis, another Japanese official said.
韓日兩國去年10月達成協議，同意將兩國間貨幣互換的規模從此前的130億美元增加至700億美元，協議爲期一年。簽署貨幣互換協議是爲了向彼此臨時借貸美元。另一位日本官員說，增加貨幣互換規模的要求是韓國提出的，因爲韓國擔心歐債危機可能導致資本外流。Further offending many Japanese last week, after visiting the islands, Mr. Lee made remarks interpreted as being disrespectful to Japan's emperor, whom many Japanese hold in high esteem. The comments 'really raised the hurdle' for the Finance Ministry to keep financial cooperation separate from politics, a Japanese official said.
在登臨日韓爭議島嶼之後，李明博上週又發表了被解讀爲對日本天皇不敬的言論，天皇在很多日本人心中擁有極高的威望，李明博此舉進一步冒犯了許多日本人。日本的一名官員說，這些言論使日本財務省難以做到讓經濟合作獨立於政治影響之外。On Friday, Mr. Azumi signaled that Japan might let the expansion of the currency swap expire at the end of October.
安住淳上週五暗示，日本可能會讓日韓兩國間的貨幣互換協議規模擴大措施在10月底到期後不再續延。Other potential steps Tokyo could take include indefinitely postponing planned purchases of South Korean government debt, Japanese officials said.
日本官員說，東京還可能採取其他措施，比如將購買韓國政府債券的計劃無限期推遲。But some analysts say the financial steps being considered by the two nations are mostly symbolic. Even if Japan rolls back the swap agreement, South Korea wouldn't suffer much because it already has the world's seventh-largest foreign-exchange reserves-$314.35 billion at the end of July. It can also rely on swap deals with other nations as well as Asia's regional firewall mechanism, these analysts say.
但是一些分析人士說，日韓兩國正在考慮的金融懲罰措施多數只是象徵性的。即使日本不再續延日韓兩國間的貨幣互換協議規模擴大措施，韓國也不會受到很大影響，因爲韓國的外匯儲備在全世界排名第七，7月底時已經達到3143.5億美元。這些分析人士說，韓國還可以依賴它與亞洲其他國家達成的貨幣互換協議，或是求助於亞洲地區的防火 機制。They also say a decision by Japan not to buy Korean government bonds would actually help Seoul, which is worried about foreign buying of such debt pushing up the value of the Korean won. Rises in the won hurt Korean exporters by making their products more expensive abroad.
這些人士還說，日方不購買韓國政府債券的決定事實上可能反而會幫了韓國。韓國正在擔心其他國家購買這類債券會導致韓圓升值，進而損害韓國出口商的利益。And while South Korea is the third-biggest importer of Japanese goods after China and the U.S., economists in Tokyo said a potential drop in Korean purchases wouldn't have much impact on Japan's economy.
東京的經濟學家說，儘管韓國是日本產品的第三大進口國，僅次於中國和美國，但日本對韓出口可能出現的下降不會對日本經濟造成太大影響。Many South Korean imports from Japan are intermediate items used by Japanese factories to build finished products for export elsewhere. Thus, even if South Korean demand for Japanese exports shrinks, it may have no meaningful effect on Japan's economy, said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
日本第一生命研究所(Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute)首席經濟學家長濱敏弘(Toshihiro Nagahama)說，韓國從日本進口的許多商品是中間產品，日本可以用這些中間產品製造出成品出口到其他國家。因此，即使韓國對日本產品的需求降低，可能也不會對日本經濟產生實質性影響。'The impact would be much bigger if the same happened in China,' he said, as China is steadily becoming more of a consumer of Japanese items, rather than a mere factory base for Japanese makers.
他說，如果同樣的事發生在中國，影響會大得多。因爲中國正日益成爲日本產品的消費者，而不只是日本製造商的生產基地。Another Japanese official said putting the Japan-South Korean financial cooperation back on track might be difficult until after Mr. Lee steps down later this year.
另一名日本官員說，李明博今年晚些時候卸任之前，日韓經濟合作很難回到正軌。Mr. Lee's Conservative Party faces a presidential election in December, but he is constitutionally barred from a second term.
李明博所在的保守派政黨將參與今年12月份的總統大選，但是根據韓國憲法，李明博不能連任。
