關注社會:成功要素公司:小資本,大計劃
SuccessFactors: Small cap, big plans
Since it went public in Nov. 2007, shares of SuccessFactors, an employee-performance software company, have traded all over the map.
If you bought in just after the IPO and hung in through the worst of the market's decline in the past year, you are still slightly ahead, up about 6%. To get there, however, you experienced a freefall during the market's November lows last year, with shares trading as low as $4.61, and a rocket ride back up since then.
The question investors in this $790-million-market-cap company ought to be asking themselves is, can that ride continue? There's reason to believe that it can.
For those unfamiliar with SuccessFactors (SFSF), the San Mateo, Calif.-based company sells a subscription-based service that, to date, has primarily helped companies conduct employee performance appraisals and set and assess employee goals. It's human resources stuff, and while not the sexiest corner of the software world, it has been a popular one during this recession.
In the second quarter of this year, SuccessFactors reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 44%. Thanks to big improvements in gross margin and lower costs, the company also broke even on an earnings per share basis (SuccessFactors has had a positive cash flow since the fourth quarter of 2008). With costs under control and revenue growing, SuccessFactors has been on a relative roll.
Goldman Sachs analyst Sarah Friar has a "buy" rating on the stock and last week raised her 12-month price target from $13 to $16. She sees two large trends keeping the wind at SuccessFactors' back.
One is the overall trend of companies large and small consuming their software via subscription -- the so-called software-as-a-service model that (CRM) pioneered and which SuccessFactors is built upon. And small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) make up about half of SuccessFactors' customers.
The other is the return, Friar says, of corporate spending on applications, with greater attention on employee management as both a down economy and a recovering one demands it.
"We are upping our numbers slightly based on stabilizing application spending and improved conditions for SMBs," Friar recently told clients, "combined with the company's continued diligence on cost."
That is the rosy near-term picture for SuccessFactors. Late last week the company brass revealed its longer-term product roadmap, which it is calling "Business Execution Software."
Fundamentally, it is a new set of applications that take SuccessFactors deeper into its customers' companies by marrying its employee performance and goals software with a new set of tools that help employees better align with, and execute on, overall corporate strategy.
If successful, it takes SuccessFactors from the HR office throughout the rest of the company. SuccessFactors thinks that will up its potential market from its current $16 billion to about $36 billion.
Those numbers are clearly theoretical at this point, but you gotta like the ambition. In the near-term, SuccessFactors is riding on an economic recovery and the need for better employee management as hiring ticks up. Longer term, however, if SuccessFactors can help companies execute strategy better with its new crop of software, its small-cap company status might be in for a big change.
成功要素公司（SuccessFactors）是一家提供員工績效管理的軟件公司，自從2007年11月上市以來，其已成功完成了大量的股份交易。
如果你在這家公司首次公開募股後就買進了它的股票，並且即使在去年市場最低靡的時刻都沒有賣出，那麼現在你手中的股票已經漲了約6%。 爲此，你先是經受了去年11月市場狀況的極速惡化，股價一度下跌到4.61美元，緊接着又目睹了股價的大幅上漲。
這種漲勢能一直保持下去嗎？這是這家市值7.9億美元的公司的投資者應當問自己的一個問題，以下就是相信其可以的原因。
有些人可能不太瞭解成功要素公司。這家公司的總部位於加州聖馬特奧市，銷售訂購式的服務，也就是幫助其它公司進行績效評估，建立並評估員工目標。它經營的算是人力資源方面的業務，儘管它的軟件稱不上是最頂尖的，在經濟衰退中卻非常受歡迎。
今年第二季度，成功要素公司宣佈其業績同比增長了44%。大幅上升的毛利率和降低的成本使得公司在每股收益上也達到了平衡（該公司從2008年第4季度起就一直保有正現金流）。由於成本得到了有效控制並且收益一直在增加，其發展十分順利。
高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師薩拉•弗萊爾（Sarah Friar）認爲成功要素公司的股票值得購買，並且在上週將其對該公司一年後的股價預測從每股13美元提升到了16美元。她認爲該公司的成功得利於兩大趨勢。
第一，公司無論規模大小都可以通過訂購方式購買成功要素公司的軟件—即“軟件即服務”模式，該模式是由公司創立的，成功要素公司正是建立在這種模式的基礎上。中小規模的公司佔到了該公司客戶羣體的一半。
第二，各公司開始重新投資各種軟件的應用，並且給予員工管理更多的關注。不管是效益下滑的公司還是正在努力從衰退中恢復的公司都需要更好地管理其員工。
最近，弗萊爾對客戶表示，“通過穩定在軟件應用方面的投資，並且隨着中小規模的公司情況的進一步好轉，以及公司在成本控制上更加謹慎，我們的收益也有了一定的提高。”
這是對於該公司近期發展的一個美好展望。上週末公司公佈了其長期的產品研發目標—“業務執行軟件”。
這是一個新的軟件系列，能夠幫助員工更好地配合或執行公司的整體戰略。通過將員工績效、目標軟件與這套新工具結合起來，其產品能夠在客戶的公司內得到更廣泛的應用。
如果這套軟件能夠取得成功，成功要素公司的產品就能在各公司的各個部門得到充分推廣，而不僅限於人力資源部門。公司認爲這能夠將其市場潛力從目前的160億美元擴展到約360億美元。
當然，這些在目前還只是理論上的推算，但遠大的目標是要有的。短期內，隨着經濟的復甦，各公司開始僱傭新員工，爲成功要素公司提供了發展機遇。長期看來，如果能夠通過這個新軟件更好地幫助各公司執行策略，這個小資本的公司的地位將會得到大幅提升。
