深圳創業板爲何魅力不再
China’s small-cap stocks have touched a two-and-a-half-year low as investors lose appetite for speculative bets on frothy sectors such as technology.
中國小盤股觸及兩年半低點，投資者對投機性押注於科技等估值偏高的板塊失去了胃口。IT makes up almost 40 per cent by market capitalisation of the Shenzhen-based ChiNext exchange, which was launched in 2009 and modelled on Wall Street’s Nasdaq as a home for start-ups in emerging sectors.
IT在深圳創業板(ChiNext)佔到總市值的近40%。2009年推出的這個二板市場以華爾街的納斯達克(Nasdaq)爲模板，面向新興行業的初創企業。The Shanghai bourse, in contrast, is weighted towards old-economy stalwarts such as banks, property developers and manufacturers.
相比之下，上海證券交易所側重於“舊經濟”大牌企業，如銀行、房地產開發商和製造商。
With 656 companies and a total market cap of Rmb4.6tn ($680bn), ChiNext is tiny compared with the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen, at Rmb35tn and Rmb22tn, respectively.
擁有656家上市公司、總市值爲4.6萬億元人民幣（合6800億美元）的深圳創業板，與上海和深圳的主板市場相比規模很小，後兩者的總市值分別爲35萬億元人民幣和22萬億元人民幣。But ChiNext is popular among speculators because small amounts of money can spark big movements.
但是，由於少量資金就足以引發股價大幅變動，深圳創業板在投機者中很受歡迎。During China’s 2015 stock market boom-and-bust cycle, the ChiNext Composite index nearly tripled in less than six months before falling spectacularly.
在2015年中國股市大漲大跌期間，創業板綜指(ChiNext Composite)先是在不到六個月時間裏大漲近2倍，隨後出現暴跌。Investors are again growing sceptical of “concept stocks” with a strong growth narrative but less persuasive financials.
如今投資者再次對“概念股”持懷疑態度，這些股票有強勁的增長故事，但缺乏有說服力的財務數據。The ChiNext Composite dropped 5.8 per cent on Monday and then fell to a 30-month low in early trade yesterday, before closing 0.6 per cent higher.
創業板綜指週一下跌5.8%，昨日早盤進一步跌至30個月低位，收盤微升0.6%。For the year the small-cap index is down 17 per cent, against a 2.7 per cent gain in the large cap-focused Shanghai Composite.
今年以來這個小盤股指數下跌17%，而偏重大盤股的上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)上漲2.7%。Nearly half the profit growth of companies on the ChiNext early this year came from acquisitions, according to Zhang Xia, analyst at China Merchants Securities in Shenzhen. That has led to scepticism about their capacity for organic growth.
招商證券(China Merchants Securities)在深圳的分析師張夏表示，今年初，創業板公司的盈利增長近一半來自收購。這令人懷疑其有機增長能力。In addition, Chinese regulators have tightened approvals of follow-on share offerings, which have been commonly used to fund acquisitions since 2014.
此外，中國監管機構收緊了對後續發股的審批，這種操作自2014年以來被普遍用於爲收購籌資。“The government is no longer supportive of capital raising for acquisitions,” said Mr Zhang. “The number and size of acquisitions is falling. This pressure is now starting to bear on the market.”
“政府不再支持爲收購而進行的籌資活動，”張夏表示。“收購的數量和規模正在下降。這個壓力現在開始出現在市場上了。”Expectations of further acquisitions had helped push typical price/earnings ratios up to 40 or 50, he added. But Mr Zhang said he expected the market to retreat gradually towards the historical norm of about 20.
他補充說，對於進一步收購的預期，此前幫助把典型的市盈率推高至40或50倍。但張夏表示，他預計市場將逐漸迴歸大約20倍的歷史常態。
A related issue is the waning interest from speculators in listed shell companies, which have been targets for groups that are eager to list. Chinese regulators strictly control the flow of initial public offerings in Shanghai and Shenzhen, leading to hundreds of companies queueing — often for years — for the privilege of issuing new shares.
一個相關的問題是投機者對上市殼公司興趣下降，這類公司此前是急於上市的集團的目標。中國監管機構嚴格控制上海和深圳的首次公開發行(IPO)流量，導致數百家公司排隊等候（往往一等就是幾年）發行新股的“特權”。Backdoor listings have become a popular way for companies to get round the backlog.
借殼上市已成爲企業規避排隊的一種流行方式。However, in the past year regulators have accelerated IPO approvals on ChiNext, reducing the value of would-be shell companies and deterring potential speculators.
然而，在過去一年裏，監管機構加快了對創業板IPO的審批，此舉降低了潛在殼公司的價值，阻止了潛在的投機者。An additional headwind is the impending end to lock-up periods on new shares issued by ChiNext companies since 2014 as part of acquisition deals.
另一個不利於行情的因素是，作爲收購交易的一部分，自2014年以來針對創業板公司發行的新股的鎖定期即將結束。The typical lock-up period is three years, so a wave of new shares is set to hit the market over the next year.
典型的鎖定期是三年，所以一波新股票將在未來一年流入市場。
