亞洲企業的信貸狂歡如何收場
Last spring, Sime Darby, a Malaysian conglomerate, announced that it planned to sell noncore assets.
去年春天，馬來西亞綜合企業森達美(Sime Darby)宣佈，計劃出售非核心資產。
It was an attempt to generate cash because much of its Rm16bn debt was coming due quite soon.
此舉是爲了回籠資金，因爲該公司總值160億林吉特的債務即將到期。
Like many other companies in Southeast Asia, Sime Darby had ramped up borrowing in the expectation of better economic times that failed to materialise.
像東南亞其他很多公司一樣，森達美此前抱着對經濟景氣的期待而增加借貸，但結果經濟並不景氣。
Its debt swelled from Rm10bn in 2013 to Rm18bn in 2015, while net income dropped by 30 per cent, according to Bloomberg data.
據彭博(Bloomberg)的數據顯示，該公司的債務水平從2013年的100億林吉特增加至2015年的180億林吉特，而在此期間其淨利潤減少了30%。
Blackstone’s Asian real estate group, which had been hunting for assets in Singapore and other attractive locations, quickly pounced.
一直在新加坡和其他具有吸引力的地方物色資產的黑石(Blackstone)旗下的亞洲房地產集團很快下手，
It bought three Sime Darby properties in the city state: two malls and a car showroom.
收購了森達美在這座城市國家的三項資產：兩座購物中心和一個汽車展示廳。
Since then, the pressure on many cash-strapped Asian companies has only worsened.
自那以來，亞洲很多資金緊張的公司承受的壓力有增無減。
In recent years, groups in a number of emerging markets took on large amounts of debt, often borrowing in US dollars to take advantage of low rates generated by the Federal Reserve’s easing policies.
近年來，很多新興市場的企業大規模舉債，往往利用美聯儲(Fed)寬鬆政策帶來的低利率而借入美元債務。
According to a JPMorgan report, the ratio of private non-financial debt to GDP in emerging markets, excluding China, now exceeds the peak level of developed market debt around the time of the global financial crisis: about 175 per cent.
根據摩根大通(JPMorgan)的一份報告，新興市場（除中國以外）私營部門非金融債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比，如今超過了全球金融危機前後發達市場債務水平的峯值——175%左右。
But that credit binge now looks problematic in the wake of Donald Trump’s election, which has boosted both the dollar and expectations that the Fed will soon raise US interest rates.
但是，在唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統（推動了美元上漲以及外界對美聯儲將很快加息的預期）之後，這場信貸狂歡如今看來問題重重。
Deleveraging is just beginning in the EM and the road looks to be long, the JPMorgan economists noted in their report late last month.
新興市場纔剛剛開始去槓桿，前方道路看起來還很長，摩根大通的經濟學家們上月下旬在他們的報告中指出。
Clouds over Asian emerging markets have been gathering for a while.
籠罩在亞洲新興市場頭上的陰雲已經聚集了一段時間。
Much of the regional economy depends on trade, which has been virtually flat in both value and volume terms for several years.
亞洲經濟在很大程度上依賴於貿易，而近年來貿易無論在總值還是總量上都幾乎持平。
Weak demand and falling prices for commodities have played a large part, but Asia’s role in the global electronics manufacturing supply chain is also critical.
大宗商品需求疲軟和價格下跌起到了很大作用，但是亞洲在全球電子製造供應鏈中的角色也起到了關鍵作用。
China, which drives that supply chain, is buying more inside its borders and providing less of a boost to its neighbours.
驅動着這條供應鏈的中國，開始更多地在境內購買，對鄰國製造業的拉動作用減弱。
Slowing Apple and Samsung sales are also hitting smartphone suppliers.
蘋果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)銷量放緩也打擊了智能手機供應商。
If the new US administration puts pressure on Apple to bring jobs home, then the clouds will darken further.
如果美國新一屆行政當局施壓蘋果公司把就業崗位遷回本土，那麼籠罩着亞洲新興市場的烏雲將更加陰鬱。
A repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis in which many companies went bust is not likely.
1997年亞洲金融危機曾造成衆多企業破產，那樣的災難不太可能重演。
Currencies are less overvalued, current account deficits are down and the foreign reserves of governments in the region are far more substantial.
如今各國貨幣匯率高估的情況沒那麼嚴重，經常賬戶赤字水平沒那麼高，而政府外匯儲備雄厚得多。
Still, the dramatic reversal in the dollar and the upward trajectory in rates will create opportunities for buyers of distressed assets — from India through Southeast Asia and even China.
話雖如此，美元走勢急劇逆轉、利率步入上升軌道，將爲在印度、東南亞、甚至中國尋覓困境資產的買家創造機會。
Today, a range of investment firms including Blackstone, Farallon, KKR, SSG and Clearwater Capital are circling in anticipation of a wave of asset sales as the burden of US dollar debt rises for many companies, particularly in Southeast Asia.
如今，隨着很多企業（特別是東南亞地區）的美元債務負擔日益加重，黑石、Farallon、KKR、SSG和Clearwater Capital等投資公司正在伺機而動，期待着一波資產出售潮。
Many distressed debt players already have lists of potential sources for deals, with Indonesian companies at the top of the list.
很多不良債務的玩家已經準備好了潛在交易對象名單，其中印尼企業最多。
For example, several are circling Rajawali, a conglomerate with interests in property, agriculture, mining, infrastructure, transportation and media.
例如，一些買家瞄準了飛鷹(Rajawali)，這是一家擁有房地產、農業、採礦、基礎設施、交通和媒體資產的綜合企業。
It has recently put $500m investment into Jakarta’s Capital Place real estate development, which is anchored by a new Four Seasons hotel, and is set to pump close to $700m, into another luxury development called Rajawali Place (which will feature a six-star St Regis hotel).
該集團最近向雅加達的房地產開發項目Capital Place（其重頭是一家全新的四季酒店(Four Seasons Hotel)）投入5億美元，並且將向另一個名爲Rajawali Place的奢侈地產開發項目（包括一家六星級瑞吉酒店(St Regis Hotel)）注入近7億美元投資。
Some distressed debt investors believe the company could be a potential target in the new financial climate.
一些不良債務投資者認爲，該公司可能在新的金融環境中成爲一個潛在目標。
But Shirley Tan, the property unit’s chief executive, says its performance in 2016 is OK and points out the low borrowing ratio for its hotel developments.
但是飛鷹地產首席執行官Shirley Tan表示，該公司2016年的業績還好，並指出其酒店開發項目的借款比率較低。
In India, GVK, an infrastructure company, is in talks with Goldman Sachs about a $250m loan that would be collateralised by its stake in the Mumbai airport, people familiar with the matter say.
知情人士稱，印度基礎設施公司GVK正在就一筆2.5億美元的貸款與高盛(Goldman Sachs)談判，該公司在孟買機場所持的股份將作爲這筆貸款的抵押。
GVK’s local bankers have talked to the Hyderabad-based company about selling part of its stake in the Bangalore airport to Fairfax of Canada.
與GVK打交道的當地銀行家接洽了這家總部位於海得拉巴(Hyderabad)的公司，商討將其在班加羅爾機場所持的部分股份出售給加拿大Fairfax。
One top executive at GVK says its bankers have been very supportive.
GVK一名高管稱，銀行家們非常支持。
Expect many more companies to consider such sales with pressure from less supportive bankers shortly.
預計很快會有更多企業在不那麼支持的銀行家的施壓下考慮此類出售。
