中國第三季度GDP的五大看點
China’s National Bureau of Statistics will tomorrow report its latest quarterly estimate for economic growth, which has stabilised after the world’s second-largest economy was rocked by a dual market and currency crisis in January.
中國國家統計局將於明日公佈對經濟增長的最新季度估計值。
For Beijing, economic stability is paramount as it focuses on reining in runaway corporate debt levels.
自中國這個全球第二大經濟體1月份遭遇市場和匯率雙重危機的震動後，其經濟增長已恢復穩定。在北京方面專注於抑制失控的公司債務水平之際，經濟穩定對其至關重要。
Investors and economists were largely reassured by the 6.7 per cent growth figure reported for the first and second quarters, in line with the 6.5-7 per cent target prescribed by Chinese policymakers late last year.
此前公佈的一季度與二季度6.7%的增長率讓投資者和經濟學家基本放心，這一數字符合去年底中國政策制定者設定的6.5%至7%的目標值。
But they will be asking whether a credible debt-reduction effort is really compatible with continued growth in that range.
但他們將提出一個疑問，即可行的減債努力是否真能與這一數值範圍內的持續增長並行不悖。
Here are five things to look out for:
以下五點需要注意：
The property sector and its contribution to growth
房地產業及其對增長的貢獻
Real estate has been the driving force behind China’s economy this year.
今年房地產一直驅動着中國經濟。
Some analysts estimate that after factoring in property developers’ demand for cement, steel and other construction materials, it ultimately accounts for more than half of total investment.
一些分析師估計，如果算上房地產開發商對水泥、鋼鐵及其他建築材料的需求，房地產最終佔總投資一半以上。
The sector is a contradictory one, characterised by price surges in China’s largest economic centres but also oversupply and stagnation in smaller cities.
房地產是一個矛盾的行業，其特點是中國幾大經濟中心城市房價暴漲，但較小城市存在供過於求和停滯現象。
As part of Beijing’s larger effort to control ballooning debt levels, more than a dozen municipal governments have introduced measures to cool overheated markets — a potential drag on future growth.
作爲北京方面控制不斷升高的債務水平的更大努力的一部分，十多個市政府已經採取措施爲過熱的市場降溫，這可能對未來的增長造成拖累。
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release its monthly survey of 70 municipal property markets.
本週五，中國國家統計局將公佈70個大中城市住宅銷售價格月度報告。
Infrastructure and private sector investment
基礎設施和私營部門投資
The Chinese government has pledged no more repeats of the debt-fuelled investment surge that maintained the country’s economic momentum through the global financial crisis.
中國政府已承諾不會再重複債務驅動的投資熱潮，這一熱潮曾支撐中國在全球經濟危機期間維持了經濟增長勢頭。
The pain felt in coal and steel-producing regions, especially in the first quarter of this year, was evidence of Beijing’s commitment to a new normal of slower, more balanced growth.
煤炭和鋼鐵生產行業所感受到的痛苦（尤其是今年一季度），證明了北京方面堅持更緩慢、更平衡增長的新常態的決心。
But with private sector companies failing to pick up much of the slack, economic planners have encouraged infrastructure investment by state-owned enterprises.
但由於私營部門企業未能挑起大梁，經濟規劃者已鼓勵國有企業投資基礎設施。
While this is not necessarily another growth-for-growth’s-sake splurge on wasteful projects given the real need for beneficial investment in everything from public transportation to water treatment facilities, it cannot continue indefinitely given the state sector’s high debt levels.
鑑於從公共交通到水處理廠等一切領域都確實需要有益的投資，此番投資不一定是又一次爲了增長而增長的浪費性項目投資熱潮，但考慮到國有部門的高債務水平，這種投資也不可能無限期持續。
Industrial production
工業生產
Less than a year after annual steel and power output contracted for the first time in two decades, manufacturers and even the long-suffering coal and steel producers have enjoyed a summer resurgence.
在年度鋼產量和發電量20年來首次出現萎縮後不到一年，製造商乃至長期處於困境中的煤炭和鋼鐵生產商都迎來了一個夏天的復甦。
Coal and steel producers should continue to benefit as Beijing weeds out weaker players in both sectors.
隨着北京方面在煤鋼行業淘汰實力較弱的企業，煤鋼生產商應該會繼續受益。
While ministers have consistently rejected international criticism of the havoc wreaked by Chinese steel exports, the State Council is standing by its commitment to reduce steel capacity.
儘管部長們一直拒絕接受國際社會對中國鋼材出口引發鋼價暴跌的批評，但中國國務院堅守其削減鋼鐵產能的承諾。
Inflation
通貨膨脹
Chinese producer price deflation disappeared in September for the first time since early 2012, thanks in part to higher coal and steel prices.
今年9月，中國工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)同比變動自2012年初以來首次由負轉正，這部分得益於上漲的煤炭和鋼材價格。
Producer prices increased 0.1 per cent year on year while consumer prices rebounded 1.9 per cent on an annual basis, up from 1.3 per cent in August.
PPI同比上漲0.1%，而居民消費價格總水平(CPI)同比上漲1.9%，比8月的1.3%有所提高。
This progress should be reflected in an acceleration in nominal gross domestic product growth — continuing a trend evident in the second quarter — and a larger deflator, which is the broadest measure of price changes across the economy.
這一進步應該會反映在名義國內生產總值(GDP)增速加快（延續第二季度的明顯勢頭）以及更高的平減指數（衡量整體經濟價格變化的最廣義指標）中。
Most importantly, continued increases in inflation will help companies pare back their debt loads.
最重要的是，通脹持續上升將幫助企業減輕債務負擔。
Services and private consumption
服務業和私人消費
As evidence that a rebalancing of China’s economy is well under way, consumption contributed 4.9 percentage points of the first half’s annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent.
在上半年6.7%的年化增長率中，消費的貢獻爲4.9個百分點，這一證據證明中國經濟再平衡已真正啓動。
Investment accounted for just 2.5 points while net exports subtracted 0.7 points.
投資僅貢獻2.5個百分點，而淨出口的貢獻是-0.7個百分點。
But there are signs that previously robust services growth is slowing, especially after last year’s stock market crash.
但有跡象表明，此前增長強勁的服務業正在放緩，特別是在去年股市暴跌之後。
