中國重啓不良資產證券化市場

China is reopening its securitised bad debt market with two deals worth Rmb534m ($81.6m) this month, eight years after regulators shuttered the market at the onset of the global financial crisis.

中國正重啓不良貸款證券化市場，本月的兩筆證券化交易規模達5.34億元人民幣(合8160萬美元) 。8年前，中國監管機構在全球金融危機爆發時關閉了這個市場。

Securitisation is among several methods adopted in an effort to whittle down China’s mounting bad debt. Net debt grew to $25tn in the first quarter of the year, equivalent to a record 237 per cent of gross domestic product.

證券化是降低中國日益增加的壞賬所採取的多種舉措之一。今年第一季度，中國的淨債務增至25萬億美元，佔國內生產總值(GDP)的237%，達到創紀錄水平。

Much of this sits on bank balance sheets, spooking investors who fear that the slowing economy will result in more loans souring. The official average non-performing loan ratio at China’s commercial banks was 1.75 per cent at the end of March but analysts reckon it could be as high as 19 per cent and eventually require a government bailout.

其中很多壞賬位於銀行資產負債表上，這引起投資者恐慌，他們擔心，經濟放緩將導致更多貸款無法償還。3月底，中國商業銀行的官方平均壞賬率爲1.75%，但分析師估計，實際壞賬率可能高達19%，最終需要政府紓困。

Francis Cheung, CLSA’s head of China strategy, estimates Beijing will need to inject Rmb10.6tn of new capital into the banking system, or 15.6 per cent of GDP, assuming a non-performing loan ratio of 20 per cent and provisions at 100 per cent of losses.

里昂證券(CLSA)中國策略主管鄭名凱(Francis Cheung)估計，假設壞賬率爲20%，不良貸款撥備覆蓋率爲100%，那麼中國需要向銀行體系注入10.6萬億元人民幣的新資金。

Kicking off the bad debt securitisation programme, which is expected to see issuance of Rmb50bn this year, are Bank of China with a Rmb301m deal next week, according to a filing at , and China Merchants Bank with a Rmb233m product.

根據中國債券信息網上的一份申請文件，首先啓動不良貸款證券化項目的是中國銀行(Bank of China)和招商銀行(China Merchants Bank)，前者將於下週發行3.01億元人民幣的不良資產證券，招商銀行將發行2.33億元人民幣的證券化產品。預計中國今年將發行500億元人民幣的不良資產證券。

Analysts fear that state players such as insurers and banks will dominate the market under the government’s guidance, in effect spreading the risk associated with bad debt within only the state financial sector.

分析師擔心，保險公司和銀行等國有參與者將在政府的指導下主宰這個市場，實際上與壞賬有關的風險只會在國有金融領域內部蔓延。

“It’s very uncertain what the market will look like at this point . . . The worst-case scenario would be for the government to come in and tell life insurance companies to buy up the products at a certain price,” said Matthew Smith, China financials analyst at Macquarie Securities in Shanghai. “What we would like to see is rational pricing and interest from private equity players.”

“目前來看，我們非常不確定市場會變成什麼樣子……最糟的結果是政府介入要求壽險公司以某種價格全部買下這些產品，”麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities)駐上海的中國金融分析師馬修•史密斯(Matthew Smith)表示，“我們希望看到的是合理定價以及來自私募股權參與者的興趣。”

International investors specialising in bad debt expect only muted demand as global rating agencies will not rate the early versions of the products.

預計專門從事壞賬業務的國際投資者的需求有限，因爲全球評級機構不會對初期產品評級。

Over the past 15 years, China’s lenders have relied on government-controlled asset management companies, or AMCs, to buy up non-performing loans, sometimes at face value. However, in recent years the level of bad loans — many from zombie companies — has exceeded the AMCs’ appetite.

過去15年，中國銀行一直依賴政府控制的資產管理公司來收購不良貸款，有時是以面值收購。然而，最近幾年，壞賬水平（很多來自殭屍企業）超出了資產管理公司的承受能力。

“The AMCs’ ability to absorb the bad debt cannot keep up with the pace of bad debt,” said Chen Shujin, an analyst at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong. “This is a new opportunity for the banks to get their money back on loans quickly and also scrape the bad debt off their balance sheets.”

“資產管理公司吸收壞賬的能力無法跟上壞賬累積的速度，”星展唯高達香港有限公司(DBS Vickers)分析師陳書錦(Chen Shujin)表示，“這是銀行迅速收回貸款並將壞賬剝離資產負債表的新機遇。”

China Construction Bank was the last Chinese bank to issue an asset-backed security using bad debt in 2008. Regulators halted all ABS issuance in 2009 as securitised products wreaked havoc in western markets. China has since resumed the market for ABS products backed by auto loans and credit card debt.

中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank)是2008年最後一家利用壞賬發行資產擔保證券(ABS)的中國銀行。2009年，監管機構叫停了所有的資產擔保證券的發行，因爲證券化產品在西方市場造成了破壞。此後，中國重啓了以汽車貸款和信用卡債務爲擔保的資產擔保證券市場。