中國官員透露經濟對策 穩定幣值增加開支
SHANGHAI — Chinese economic policy makers tugged back the curtain a bit on Thursday on their plans to stabilize the country’s economy and financial markets, even as shares plunged more than 6 percent late in the day.
上海——週四，中國負責制定經濟政策的官員稍微透露了一些該國在穩定經濟和金融市場方面的計劃，而中國股市在當天晚些時候又暴跌了逾6%。
Speaking to leaders of the world’s biggest banks and institutional investors at a financial conference here, officials described how they would use government deficit spending to spur growth. A senior Chinese central banker also pledged to preserve the value of China’s currency, the renminbi, by firmly tying its value to a range of other currencies.
在上海舉行的一次金融會議上，面對世界上最大的銀行和機構投資者，中國官員講述了他們將如何利用政府赤字開支來刺激增長。中國央行的一位高層領導也承諾，要保持人民幣幣值，方式是將人民幣和一系列其他貨幣牢牢掛鉤。
Timothy Adams, the chief executive and president of the Institute of International Finance, said Chinese policy makers realized they had made a serious mistake by staying silent as slowing growth, stumbles in the stock market and a fluctuating currency undermined the world’s perception of China’s economic stability. Their silence has been widely construed as either a reluctance to acknowledge difficulties or a lack of solutions.
國際金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)首席執行官兼所長蒂莫西·亞當斯(Timothy Adams)表示，中國決策者意識到他們犯了一個嚴重的錯誤——在經濟增長放緩、股市下跌和貨幣價值波動損害了外界對中國經濟穩定性的看法時，一直保持沉默。他們的沉默被普遍理解爲，要麼是不願承認面臨的困難，要麼是缺乏解決之道。
“Either they communicate with the markets in a timely and intelligent fashion, or the markets are going to write their own story line,” said Mr. Adams, a former senior United States Treasury official.
“他們不用聰明的方式和市場進行及時的溝通，市場就會以自己的方式做出理解，”曾在美國財政部任高級官員的亞當斯說。
Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world are flying into Shanghai for meetings this weekend. Global banking leaders are already here for the annual conference of the Institute of International Finance. So a large contingent of Chinese officials has come from Beijing to meet with them and discuss their policies.
世界各國的財政部長和央行行長正飛往上海，準備出席週末在這裏舉行的會議。全球銀行業領袖已經來到上海，正在參加由國際金融研究所舉行的一年一度的會議。所以一大批中國官員也從北京前來和他們會面，討論他們的政策。
So far, the Chinese officials have acknowledged the challenges they face, but they contend that the world has overlooked the many policy options they can use to respond.
目前，中國官員已經承認自身面臨諸多挑戰，但他們辯稱，外界也忽略了，他們有很多可以用以應對的政策選項。
The officials outlined how they hoped to shift the economy from its emphasis on manufacturing, exports and a sometimes manic pace of construction, toward services and consumer spending. And they described how they hoped to manage that transition without tripping up economic growth along the way.
這些官員勾畫出，他們希望如何將經濟發展的重點從製造、出口和不時狂飆突進的建設領域，向服務業和居民消費轉變。他們還表示，希望在不影響經濟增長的情況下實現這種轉變。
Zhu Guangyao, a vice minister of finance, said Thursday morning that Prime Minister Li Keqiang would unveil a government budget early next month that would include economic stimulus through an increase in deficit spending, which was only 2.3 percent of economic output last year. “In 2016, certainly we will have to increase that ratio,” he said.
中國財政部副部長朱光耀週四上午表示，李克強總理將於下月初公佈今年的政府預算，其中將包括通過增加赤字支出來刺激經濟增長的計劃。中國去年的赤字支出僅爲經濟產出的2.3%。“2016年，我們肯定得提高這個比例，”他說。
Although China’s corporations are heavily indebted, the Chinese central government is not.
儘管中國的企業大多負債累累，但中央政府並非如此。
In a subsequent speech to international bank leaders, Yi Gang, the first deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, provided the strongest commitment to date not to devalue the renminbi. He described a complex strategy based on anchoring the value of the renminbi to three baskets of currencies. The baskets are essentially weighted averages of how much the renminbi is worth in terms of dollars, euros, yen and other currencies.
隨後，在對國際銀行業領袖講話時，中國人民銀行副行長易綱做出了迄今爲止有關人民幣不再貶值的最強承諾。他描述了一項基於將人民幣與三個貨幣籃子掛鉤的複雜策略。這些籃子基本上相當於，人民幣相對美元、歐元、日元和其他一些貨幣的加權平均。
Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, is scheduled to speak Friday morning and then hold a rare news conference immediately afterward.
央行行長周小川計劃於週五上午發表講話，緊接着他還會並不多見地舉辦一場新聞發佈會。
He will have much to discuss: Money has been sluicing out of China this winter, as companies and individuals use their renminbi to buy dollars, fearing that the renminbi may decline further against the dollar. As officials spoke on Thursday, the Shanghai stock exchange on the other side of town was sliding steeply, ending with a loss of 6.4 percent — a particularly precipitous decline given that the market halts trading in any listing once it has fallen 10 percent.
他將有不少需要討論的問題：隨着企業和個人因擔心人民幣對美元進一步貶值而用人民幣大量買入美元，這個冬天中國的資金一直在外流。週四，就在中國官員們講話的同時，位於上海市另一端的上海證券交易所的指數劇烈下挫，最終以6.4%的跌幅收盤——考慮到任何一支股票價格下跌10%就會停止交易，6.4%更可算是暴跌。
Share prices slid on Thursday, not in response to the reassurances of Chinese officials but rather to a spike in short-term interest rates in Chinese money markets.
週四的股市下滑，並不是對中國官員的安撫言論做出的反應，而是受到中國金融市場短期利率上揚的刺激。
Despite huge outflows in recent months, it was not immediately clear that trying to slow them was the sole cause of the rise in interest rates. The Chinese central bank injects huge sums of cash into the economy in late January and early February each year in anticipation of heavy consumer spending during Chinese New Year, then tries to drain some of that extra money in late February. It is a tricky task every year, and especially when financial confidence is weak.
儘管最近幾個月中國出現大幅資金外流，但並不能馬上斷定，遏制外流速度的努力是利率上升的唯一因素。每年的1月末和2月初，中國央行都會向經濟領域注入鉅額資金，以滿足春節期間預計會出現的大量消費支出，然後在2月末的時候，再努力收回部分多餘資金。每年這都是項棘手的任務，在金融領域信心低落的時候，尤其如此。
Even if Chinese officials do start unveiling further policy responses to economic weakness, it is unclear whether overseas investors will believe them. China has repeatedly promised measures to limit the rapid growth of corporate debt and to overhaul state-owned enterprises, notably at the Third Plenum, a policy-setting gathering in the autumn of 2013. But putting changes in effect has proved slow and difficult, as many could involve layoffs in single-company towns with few alternative employers, and could threaten the livelihoods of politically connected executives at troubled state-owned enterprises.
即使中國官員開始推出應對經濟疲軟的進一步政策，目前也不清楚海外投資者對他們是否有信心。中國一再承諾將採取措施，限制企業債的快速增長，並對國有企業進行全面改革，尤其是在2013年秋季召開制定政策的十八屆三中全會的時候。但是事實證明，這些變化的貫徹既緩慢又艱難，因爲它可能涉及到裁員，很多情況下一座城鎮只有一家大企業，幾乎沒有其他僱主，而且在陷入困境的國有企業，這可能會威脅到那些有政治後臺的高管的生計。
The Chinese central bank has been trying to inject additional cash into the economy to offset outflows and prevent interest rates from rising. Qu Hongbin, the chief economist for greater China at HSBC, said that not all of the money leaving China was harmful, however. He estimated that three-fifths of it consisted of Chinese companies paying overseas debts, which would become more expensive in renminbi terms if the currency weakens further.
中國央行一直試圖將更多資金注入經濟，以彌補資產外流，防止利率升高。但是，匯豐銀行(HSBC)大中華區首席經濟師曲宏斌表示，並非所有離開中國的資金都有害。他估計，其中有五分之三是中國企業用來償還海外債務的，如果人民幣進一步走弱，那麼用人民幣來計價，海外債務就會變得更高。
Mr. Yi, the deputy governor, sought to reassure bankers that China’s central bank would not tolerate another broad decline in the value of the renminbi. The bank devalued the renminbi 4 percent compared with the dollar last August, then pushed it down nearly 3 percent in late December and early January.
人民銀行副行長易綱試圖安撫銀行業高管，表示中國央行不會容許人民幣再次大幅貶值。去年8月，央行讓人民幣對美元匯率下跌了4%，在12月下旬和1月初，又再次推動下跌了近3%。
Mr. Yi said that China is anchoring its currency to three weighted averages of currencies: one that it calculates itself, one from the Bank of International Settlements and one from the International Monetary Fund. Paul Gruenwald, a former I.M.F. official who is now the Singapore-based Asia economist for Standard & Poor’s, said that because the dollar typically makes up a third of each of these baskets, the shift meant that the renminbi could conceivably vary three times as widely against the dollar.
易綱稱，中國將用三個加權平均值來確定人民幣匯率：一個是它自己計算得出的值，一個來自國際清算銀行(Bank of International Settlements)，還有一個來自國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)。前IMF官員保羅·格倫瓦爾德(Paul Gruenwald)現在是標準普爾(Standard& Poor's)的亞州經濟師，常駐新加坡。他表示，由於美元通常在這些籃子中各佔三分之一，可以想見，這種變化意味着人民幣對美元匯率變化的波幅可能會是目前的三倍。
The renminbi gained against the broader baskets through much of last year, even as it weakened against the dollar. But this winter, the currency has also weakened against the averages, as it has followed the dollar down against the euro.
去年很多時候，人民幣即使相對於美元走弱，但相對於更大的籃子卻在升值。但是這個冬天，人民幣相對於平均值也有所走弱，因爲它和美元一起，相對於歐元貶值了。
By not specifying which of the baskets is most important, the People’s Bank of China keeps greater flexibility, although at the cost of also allowing greater uncertainty in financial markets. China’s own basket includes currencies that are somewhat important for its trade, like the Russian ruble and Malaysian ringgit. The I.M.F.’s special drawing rights, another basket cited by Mr. Yi, only has the dollar, euro, yen, British pound and the renminbi.
中國人民銀行沒有指出哪個籃子最重要，從而保持了較高的靈活性，不過這也增加了金融市場的不確定性。中國自己的籃子納入了一些對該國貿易比較重要的貨幣，比如俄羅斯盧布和馬來西亞林吉特。易綱還提到了另一個名爲IMF特別提款權的籃子，而它只包括美元、歐元、日元、英鎊和人民幣。
