春節黃金週釋放樂觀信號 China new year cheer
Actions, we are told, speak louder than words. If so, then China looks in good shape. Yesterday, the country’s markets reopened after the week-long Chinese new year holiday. While China was closed, Japan’s equity markets slumped one-tenth in US dollar terms, and the Japanese yen surged.
人們常說，行動比言語更響亮。如果是這樣，那麼中國看起來狀態不錯。昨日，中國市場在春節黃金週過後重新開盤。在中國市場關閉的上週，日本股市按美元計算大跌十分之一，而日元飆升。
Yet Shanghai’s return did not exacerbate the regional sell-off: the index opened down 3 per cent then rallied through the day. The renminbi, meanwhile, had its strongest bounce since 2005, up more than 1 per cent, especially curious after January trade data highlighted China’s poor economy. Exports fell more than one-tenth year-on-year, overshooting the anticipated 2 per cent drop. Imports, meanwhile, contracted one-fifth in US dollar terms — again, far worse than forecast.
然而，上海股市在開盤後並沒有加劇地區拋售：指數開盤下跌3%後在當日餘下時間呈現漲勢。與此同時，人民幣匯率出現自2005年以來最強勁的反彈，漲幅超過1%；在1月份貿易數據突顯中國經濟狀況欠佳後，這尤其令人費解。按美元計算，出口同比下降逾十分之一，降幅遠超預期的2%，進口減少五分之一，同樣遠遜於預測。
These figures say more about the parlous state of the external situation than they do about China — exports to the EU, among others, were particularly poor. And while the import figure suggests a slowdown in internal demand, it was unduly influenced by collapsing commodity prices. Iron ore imports, for instance, grew 5 per cent in volume terms but dropped one-third in value terms, according to HSBC.
這些數字在更大程度上說明了外部形勢的嚴峻，而非中國國內的局面——其中對歐盟的出口表現特別糟糕。同時，儘管進口數據似乎表明內需放緩，但它受到了大宗商品價格崩盤的較大影響。據匯豐(HSBC)介紹，以鐵礦石爲例，中國進口量增長了5%，但在價值上降低了三分之一。
Other parts of China’s domestic economy are doing just fine. Chinese new year spending on food and retail rose 11 per cent year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Finance. Leisure pursuits, in the consumer-driven economy, fared even better. Cinema box office take rose 80 per cent year-on-year for the first three days of the holiday, equalling revenues for the entire week-long holiday last year.
中國國內經濟的其他部分表現不錯。根據中國商務部的數據，春節黃金週全國零售和餐飲銷售額同比增長11%。在消費拉動型經濟中，休閒娛樂活動表現更佳。初一到初三全國電影票房同比增長80%，相當於去年春節黃金週的總票房。
And people travelled, too: visitors to domestic attractions such as Chengdu’s panda reserve rose more than two-fifths.
人們也積極外出旅遊。國內景點遊客人數增加，比如初五成都大熊貓基地的遊客人數就增加了逾五分之二。
Despite these encouraging signs, Zhou Xiaochuan, People’s Bank of China governor, made the difference. Over the weekend, he calmed fears of currency devaluation and capital controls. Perhaps words carry more weight than actions after all.
儘管有這些令人鼓舞的跡象，但起到決定性作用的還是中國人民銀行(PBoC)行長周小川。上週末，他安撫了外界對於人民幣貶值和資本管制的擔憂。也許言語最終還是比行動更有份量。
