中國資本外流愈演愈烈 人民幣再遇考驗
HONG KONG — As the Chinese economy stumbles, wealthy families are increasingly trying to move large sums of money out of the country, worried that the value of the currency will fall and their savings will be worth less.
香港——隨着中國經濟走勢低迷，富裕家庭擔心人民幣貶值，自己的存款價值縮水，正越來越多地試圖將鉅款轉移出境。
To get around the country’s cash controls, individuals are asking friends or family members to carry or transfer out $50,000 apiece, the annual legal limit in China. A group of 100 people can move $5 million overseas.
爲了不違反中國的現金管制規定，一些人讓朋友或家庭成員攜帶或匯款5萬美元出境，這是中國規定的年度上限。100人一年可以轉移500萬美元到海外。
The practice is called smurfing, named after the blue, mushroom-dwelling cartoon protagonists, and it is part of an exodus of capital that is casting doubt on China’s economic prospects and shaking global markets. Over the last year, companies and individuals have moved nearly $1 trillion from China.
這種做法被稱爲“smurfing”（藍精靈式轉移，國內常稱“螞蟻搬家”。——譯註），得名於住在蘑菇裏的卡通角色藍精靈。它是資本外流的其中一種形式，這種外流正給中國經濟前景投下陰影，也在全球市場引發震動。過去一年中，公司和個人已經從中國轉移了近一萬億美元出境。
Some methods are perfectly legal, like investing in real estate elsewhere, buying businesses overseas, or paying off debts owed in dollars. Others, such as Smurfing, are more dubious, and in certain cases, outright illegal. Chinese customs officials caught a woman last year trying to leave the mainland with $250,000 strapped to her chest and thighs and hidden inside her shoes.
有些方式是完全合法的，比如在其他地方進行房地產投資，購買海外企業，或償付美元債務等。但類似螞蟻搬家的方法則比較可疑，在某些情況下完全是非法的。中國海關官員去年抓獲了一名試圖離開大陸的女子，她把25萬美元的鈔票捆綁在胸部和大腿上，部分藏在鞋子裏。
If the government cannot keep them from rushing to the financial exits, China’s outlook could darken. The swell of outflows is a destabilizing force in China’s slowing economy, threatening to undermine confidence and hurt a banking system that is struggling to deal with a decade-long lending binge.
如果政府不能阻止資金從金融系統中流出，中國的前景可能會愈發黯淡。資本外流增加是中國經濟放緩的一個不穩定因素，有可能會打擊人們的信心，對中國的銀行系統造成危害。眼下，銀行系統正在步履維艱地應對持續了十年的貸款狂潮。
The capital flight is already putting significant pressure on the country’s currency, the renminbi. The government is trying to prevent a free fall in the currency by stepping into the markets and tapping its huge cash hoard to shore up the renminbi. But a deep erosion of those reserves can set off further outflows and create turbulence in the markets.
資本外逃給中國的人民幣帶來了顯著壓力。爲了防止人民幣跳水，政府在市場上採取行動，動用其巨大的現金儲備來支撐人民幣。但是如果現金儲備減少太多，反而會加劇資本外流，引發市場動盪。
China is also trying to put the brakes on outflows, by tightening its grip on the country’s links to the global financial system. The government, for example, just started to clamp down on people’s use of bank cards to buy life insurance policies.
中國還試圖加強對該國和全球金融體系之間聯繫的控制，來遏制資本外流。比如，政府開始打擊用銀行卡購買壽險保單的做法。
Such moves have trade-offs. The limits create concerns that the government is pulling back on reform efforts that China needs to keep growth humming in the decades to come. But the near-term pressure also requires serious attention, given the global shock waves.
這些舉措是有利有弊的。限制出臺後，人們擔心政府會逆轉中國未來幾十年發展所需的改革進程。但考慮到對全球的震盪效應，短期壓力也需要給予密切關注。
“The currency has become a very near-term threat to financial stability,” said Charlene Chu, an economist at Autonomous Research.
“人民幣已經成爲金融穩定的一個近在眼前的威脅，”研究機構Autonomous Research的經濟學家朱夏蓮(Charlene Chu)說。
Navigating such problems is fairly new for China.
這些都是中國以前沒有遇到過的問題。
For years, China soaked up much of the world’s investment money, as the economy grew at annual rates in the double digits. A largely closed financial system kept China’s own money corralled inside the country.
多年來，中國吸納了全球投資的很大一部分，其經濟保持着兩位數的年增長率。中國的金融體系在很大程度上是封閉的，把它自己的錢圈在國內。
Now, with growth slowing, money is gushing out of the country. And the government has a looser grip on the spigot, because China dismantled some currency restrictions to open up its economy in recent years.
現在，隨着經濟增長放緩，資金正在大量流出該國。政府對資本流出的管制卻比較寬鬆，因爲近年來爲了開放經濟，中國取消了一些對貨幣的限制。
“Companies don’t want renminbi and individuals don’t want renminbi,” said Shaun Rein, the founder of the China Market Research Group. “The renminbi was a sure bet for a long time, but now that it’s not, a lot of people want to get out.”
“公司不想要人民幣，個人也不想要人民幣，”市場研究機構CMR集團的創始人雷小山(Shaun Rein)說。“在很長一段時間裏，人民幣都是包賺不賠，但現在不是這樣了，很多人想要撤出。”
Managing the situation has proved complicated for the government.
事實證明，政府要管控這種形勢並不容易。
China abruptly devalued the renminbi by 4 percent last August, as part of a shift to a more market-oriented approach and to help exporters. But that surprise move set off sharp stock falls.
去年8月，中國突然將人民幣貶值4%，這是爲了進一步向市場導向轉型，同時也爲出口商提供助力。但是這種突如其來的舉動引發了股市暴跌。
The government then tried to guide the currency down in quieter fashion, with the renminbi falling 2.8 percent over a five-week period ending in early January. Even so, the stealthy move led to a sell-off, as global investors fretted about the Chinese economy.
然後政府又試圖採取不那麼引人注目的方式，引導人民幣匯率下滑，在截止1月初的五週時間裏，人民幣跌去了2.8%。即便如此，這種不顯眼的舉動還是引發了拋售，因爲全球投資者對中國經濟感到焦慮不安。
The Chinese central bank is fighting the downward pressure by purchasing large sums of renminbi, selling dollars from its currency reserves to do so. China’s reserves sank by $108 billion in December and another $99 billion in January, to $3.23 trillion. A year and a half ago, they stood at $4 trillion.
爲了緩解下行壓力，中國央行大舉購入人民幣，爲此要出售其貨幣儲備中的美元。去年12月，中國外匯儲備減少了1080億美元，今年1月又減少了990億美元，剩下3.23萬億美元。一年半之前，他們有4萬億美元的外匯儲備。
And the renminbi still faces plenty of headwinds.
而人民幣仍然面臨很多阻力。
The government has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, making it less attractive for savers to keep their money in the country. Corporate profits are shrinking because China has too many spare steel mills, car factories and empty houses, leading investors to seek better returns elsewhere.
政府一直通過降低利率刺激經濟，削弱了對儲蓄者的吸引力，使其不願將錢存在中國。由於中國的過剩鍊鋼廠、汽車廠以及空置房屋過多，公司利潤不斷減少，導致投資者到其他地方尋求更好的收益。
Ronald Wan, a Hong Kong money manager who is on the boards of numerous state-owned enterprises in mainland China, said that pessimism was becoming the consensus. “Among the companies I have been in contact with,” he said, “all of them have the intention of moving money out of the country.”
香港資金經理溫天納(Ronald Wan)在中國大陸的多家國有企業任董事，他表示，這種悲觀情緒已經成爲共識。“我所接觸的公司，”他說。“都有意將資金轉移出中國。”
In this environment, many banks and economists expect another sharp devaluation this spring. But the Chinese government has denounced predictions of any further erosion of the renminbi. The People’s Daily, the state-owned newspaper, in late January criticized George Soros, the billionaire trader known for big currency bets, after he questioned Chinese policies.
在這種環境下，很多銀行和經濟學家認爲今年春季人民幣會大幅貶值。但中國政府對於人民幣會進一步貶值的預測進行了譴責。在以貨幣豪賭著稱的億萬富翁、交易商喬治·索羅斯(George Soros)質疑中國政策之後，官方報紙《人民日報》在1月晚些時候發表文章對他加以批評。
“When they came out to attack Soros, to me that was the strongest signal that they will do whatever they can not to make Soros and other hedge fund managers too rich,” said Weijian Shan, chief executive of PAG, a private equity firm based in Hong Kong that manages $15 billion.
管理着150億美元的香港私人股本公司太盟投資集團(PAG)首席執行官單偉建說，“當他們抨擊索羅斯時，我覺得他們發出了最強信號，說明他們會竭盡所能，不讓索羅斯及其他對衝基金經理變得更富有。”
The government’s next move, in part, will depend on whether it can stem the outflows, or at least slow them significantly. And in China, it is a bit of a cat-and-mouse game.
在某種程度上，政府的下一步舉措將取決於它能否阻止或者至少大幅減緩資金外流。在中國，這有點像貓捉老鼠的遊戲。
Individuals can move $50,000 a year across China’s borders. Companies and sophisticated investors have more freedom to send out money legally for big-ticket purchases and investments. Overseas and domestic companies, which maintain bank accounts in various currencies, can also shift their cash , as well as borrow based on which currency they think will fall in value.
個人每年可以向境外轉移五萬美元的資金。公司和經驗豐富的投資商擁有更多自由，可以通過大額購買和投資合法地轉移資金。保留了各種貨幣的銀行賬戶的海內外公司也可以轉移資金，還可以依據自身對何種貨幣會貶值的判斷進行借貸。
Unofficial methods abound.
檯面下的方法還有很多。
Companies have inflated trade invoices to keep more profits outside the country, although Chinese authorities have cracked down on the practice.
公司通過擡高貿易發票金額將更多利潤留在國外，但中國當局已經在打擊這種行爲。
Mr. Rein described doing market research with a wealthy woman in Shanghai who changed $7 million this winter from renminbi into dollars, by using 140 relatives, friends and even friends’ relatives who each carried $50,000 a piece.
雷小山講了一樁與上海一名富有女子做市場調查的事情，此人在今冬通過140名親屬、朋友，甚至朋友的親屬兌換了700萬美元，每人攜帶五萬美元。
The government, though, is trying to cut off some routes.
但政府正在努力切斷一些途徑。
Two years ago, the government gave permission for insurers to invest 15 percent of their assets overseas, up from 1.5 percent. But China abruptly told insurers this winter to suspend many of their overseas plans, according to Hong Kong financiers.
兩年前，中國政府允許保險公司將15%的資產投向海外，之前的比率爲1.5%。但據香港金融業者透露，中國在今冬突然要求保險公司暫停一些海外項目。
Beijing has restricted the withdrawal of renminbi from overseas branches of Chinese banks. In Shenzhen, banks have begun requiring that residents make reservations up to a week in advance if they want to change the daily maximum of $10,000 worth of Chinese currency into dollars.
北京已經收緊了在境外中國銀行分支機構提取人民幣的限制。在深圳，各銀行開始要求每天要兌換一萬美元——每日最高額——的居民提前一週預約。
In January, Zou Tai, a hospital worker from east-central China, caught an early morning flight to buy a $50,000 life insurance policy in Hong Kong. Scores of Chinese customers having been doing the same to get money out of the country, since the policy is bought in renminbi and can be cashed out in American dollars.
今年1月，來自中國中東部的醫院工作人員鄒泰（音）搭乘早班航班，前往香港購買價值五萬美元的人壽保險單。數十名中國客戶通過同樣途徑將資金轉移出中國，因爲保單是用人民幣購買，可以變現爲美元。
“The buying power of the renminbi keeps dropping,” Mrs. Zou said. “I feel that China’s leaders will have no choice but to devalue the renminbi.”
“人民幣的購買力不斷下降，”鄒泰說。“我覺得中國的領導人別無選擇，只能讓人民幣貶值。”
Mrs. Zou acted in the nick of time, since the government is now pushing back. UnionPay International, a government-controlled bank card company, recently announced that it would start strictly enforcing a pre-existing but widely ignored limit on overseas insurance purchases of $5,000 a year per card.
鄒泰購買的時機剛剛好，因爲政府目前正在阻止購買。由政府控制的銀行信用卡公司銀聯國際最近宣佈，該公司將開始嚴格限制購買海外保險的金額——每張卡每年只能購買5000美元，這一舉措之前就已存在，但被廣泛忽視。
