離岸人民幣匯率出現史上最大漲幅 Offshore renminbi jumps record 1%
The offshore renminbi jumped the most in its five-year history yesterday, prompting fresh speculation of state intervention by the central bank to underpin the Chinese currency.
離岸人民幣匯率昨日出現其五年曆史上最大漲幅，引發了對中國央行(PBoC)爲支撐人民幣匯率而採取官方干預措施的新一輪猜測。
Renminbi traded in Hong Kong — referred to as CNH — rose more than 1 per cent against the US dollar in just a few minutes late in the Asian day. Though small compared with other international currencies, the move was the sharpest increase since the launch of offshore renminbi trading in 2010.
在亞洲交易日尾盤期間，在香港交易的人民幣(CNH)兌美元匯率在短短几分鐘內上升逾1%。雖然與其他國際貨幣相比這一變動幅度不大，但它是自2010年推出離岸人民幣交易以來的最大漲幅。
The speed and magnitude of the rise led some to point the finger at China’s central bank, which has been intervening aggressively over the past month to prop up the currency.
此次匯率上漲速度之快和幅度之大，令部分人將原因歸結到中國央行身上。在過去一個月裏，中國央行一直在大舉干預匯市以支撐人民幣匯率。
“We can’t know for sure but it looks like Chinese banks are buying renminbi in the offshore market,” said a trader at a midsize Chinese bank in Shanghai. “It’s been happening recently but it looks like the amount is much bigger today.”
上海一家中等規模中資銀行的一名交易員表示：“我們無法確切知道，但看起來好像中資銀行正在離岸市場買入人民幣。這種情況最近一直在發生，不過今天的買入規模似乎要大得多。”
Large buying by China’s state-owned banks is often seen as an indication of government intervention, with commercial lenders carrying out orders on behalf of the central bank. Beijing may have chosen to act after the gap between the onshore and offshore exchange rate hit its widest since 2011 this week.
中國國有銀行的大規模買入行爲，往往被視爲政府幹預的跡象，由商業銀行代表中國央行下單。就在本週，在岸和離岸人民幣匯率出現2011年以來的最大差距，這可能促使中國政府選擇採取行動。
However, others believe that China’s drumbeat of positive messages on its currency, and some potential moves to ease the two-way flow of corporate cash between onshore and offshore markets, may have contributed to a stronger renminbi in Hong Kong. Depreciation pressures have been building since Beijing opted to cut the value of its currency against the dollar by about 3 per cent in mid-August, a move that sent shockwaves through global markets.
不過，其他人則認爲，中國在人民幣匯率問題上傳遞出的積極信號，以及可能會放寬企業資金在在岸和離岸市場間雙向流動的舉措，可能對人民幣在香港的走強有所貢獻。8月中旬，中國政府曾選擇將人民幣兌美元匯率下調約3%，此舉對全球市場產生了巨大沖擊。自那以來，人民幣貶值壓力一直在升高。
China is also suffering from record capital outflows as the economy slows and as the prospect of higher interest rates in the US draws money elsewhere. In August, China’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $94bn — the most on record — despite a trade surplus for the month of $60bn.
由於中國經濟放緩以及美國加息前景吸引資金流向別處，中國也在遭遇創紀錄的資金外流。今年8月，儘管該月中國貿易順差達600億美元，但中國外匯儲備減少了940億美元——是有記錄以來的最大跌幅。
Capital outflows, a slowing economy, and a series of rate cuts have led many strategists to predict a weaker renminbi in the months ahead.
資金外流、不斷放緩的經濟、以及一系列降息舉措，令許多策略師預計今後幾個月人民幣將走弱。
However, Beijing has denied any intention to devalue the renminbi in a bid to boost export competitiveness. “China will never resort to a currency war,” Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said this week at a World Economic Forum meeting in Dalian.
不過，中國政府已否認抱有任何爲提升出口競爭力而令人民幣貶值的意圖。本週，在大連舉行的世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)會議上，中國總理李克強曾表示：“中國絕不主張打‘貨幣戰’。”
