鐵礦石價格反彈 Iron ore futures buoyed by steel export hopes

Iron ore futures in China rose to a five-week high yesterday, recovering from a recent fall on expectations that Beijing’s moves to weaken its currency will help boost steel exports by the world’s largest producer.

中國鐵礦石期貨價格昨日漲至5周高點，從最近的下跌行情反彈，原因是市場預期北京方面讓人民幣貶值的舉動將有助於提振全球最大鋼鐵生產國的鋼鐵出口。

The rise in iron ore prices also followed a chemical blast in the port city of Tianjin, which has disrupted imports.

另一個因素是，港口城市天津的化學物質爆炸導致鐵礦石進口中斷。

Iron ore futures for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose nearly 4 per cent to Rmb388.5 a tonne. Ore with 62 per cent iron content for immediate delivery to China rose 40 cents to $56.20 a tonne, according to an assessment from The Steel Index.

大連商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange) 1月交割的鐵礦石期貨價格上漲近4%，至388.5元人民幣/噸。據鋼鐵指數公司(The Steel Index)評估，中國進口的含鐵量62%的鐵礦石現貨上漲40美分，至56.20美元/噸。

Iron ore, the main ingredient in steelmaking and a critical source of profitability for several leading mining houses, including BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, has rallied over the past month, after hitting a seven-year low of $44.10 in early July.

鐵礦石是鍊鋼的主要成分，也是必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等多家主要礦商的關鍵利潤來源。自7月初觸及44.10美元/噸的7年低點以來，過去一個月鐵礦石價格出現上漲。

China’s central bank this week engineered the biggest fall in the Chinese currency since the mid-1990s. That should help steel shipments, according to analysts.

本週，中國央行策劃了自上世紀90年代中期以來的人民幣匯率最大跌幅。分析師稱，人民幣貶值將有助於鋼鐵出口。

“If China continues to raise exports of steel, this would require more imported iron ore to produce, and thus iron ore could be a net beneficiary of renminbi devaluation,” brokers CLSA said. “Though this would partially be offset by steel production cuts to counter Chinese exports in other countries.”

“如果中國繼續增加鋼鐵出口量，那將需要進口更多鐵礦石來鍊鋼，因此鐵礦石可能成爲人民幣貶值的淨受益者，”經紀商里昂證券(CLSA)稱，“儘管這將被其他國家爲應對中國出口而削減鋼鐵產量的舉動部分抵消。”

The European steel industry body Eurofer said yesterday there may be “very real competitiveness impacts” for European steel companies due to Chinese steel imports that will now be even cheaper, Reuters reported.

據路透社(Reuters)報道，歐洲鋼鐵業組織——歐洲鋼鐵聯盟(Eurofer)昨日稱，由於現在中國鋼鐵出口價格將會更低，歐洲鋼鐵公司可能將面臨“非常真切的競爭影響”。

China’s steel capacity is around 1.2bn tonnes, according to JPMorgan, more than three times its level a decade ago and nearly double its size from 2008.

據摩根大通(JPMorgan)表示，中國鋼鐵產能在12億噸左右，是10年前的3倍多，較2008年的產能規模增加了近一倍。

Since domestic demand has been weak, much of that steel has made its way into global markets. The government has said it hopes to shift some of the overcapacity to countries along the Silk Road and fellow emerging market countries.

由於國內需求疲軟，中國鋼鐵產量的相當大部分進入了全球市場。中國政府稱，希望將部分過剩產能轉移至一帶一路沿線國家以及其他新興市場國家。

China’s domestic iron ore is considerably more expensive than overseas supply, meaning the country is likely to continue to rely on the seaborne market even with the devaluation. The country now consumes more than 70 per cent of the world’s seaborne iron ore.

中國國內鐵礦石的價格顯著高於海外供應的鐵礦石，這意味着，即便是在人民幣貶值的情況下，中國也很可能會繼續依賴於海運市場。如今中國消化世界海運鐵礦石的70%以上。

The chemical blast at the port city of Tianjin was also supportive of prices. Miner BHP Billiton said shipments and port operations had been disrupted.

天津發生的化學物質爆炸也對鐵礦石價格形成支撐。礦業公司必和必拓稱，天津港的運輸及港口作業已經中斷。