華晨中國預警 上半年利潤降40%
A profit warning at Brilliance China Automotive, BMW’s Chinese business partner, has cast a further cloud over the outlook for premium car sales in the world’s largest car market.
寶馬(BMW)的中國商業夥伴華晨中國汽車(Brilliance China Automotive)發佈盈利預警，給世界最大汽車市場的高檔車銷售前景蒙上了一層新的陰影。Brilliance said first-half profit attributable to shareholders would be around 40 per cent lower than during the same period last year, which it blamed mostly on the performance of its 50-50 joint venture with BMW.
華晨中國表示，今年上半年其淨利潤將比去年同期下降約40%。華晨中國認爲，主要原因是其與寶馬對半持股的合資公司業績欠佳。Brilliance attributed the expected profit decline to the “higher selling costs incurred . . . as a result of the slowdown in growth of the Chinese economy and the automotive industry” as well as costs related to the launch of new models and production facilities.
華晨中國將預期的利潤下降歸因於“由中國經濟和汽車業增長放緩導致的……銷售成本上升”、以及與推出新車型及新生產設施有關的成本。
As the Chinese economy slows, sales of big-ticket items such as cars have come under pressure. China has clamped down on the issue of new car registrations to combat pollution and congestion and a government crackdown on corruption has also tempered consumption.
隨着中國經濟放緩，像汽車這樣的高價商品的銷售面臨壓力。中國爲應對污染和交通堵塞限制新車上牌，政府的反腐運動也影響了消費。Meanwhile, China’s domestic car manufacturers have also ratcheted up competition in the highly-profitable sport utility vehicle sector.
同時，在高利潤的運動型多功能車(SUV)領域，來自中國本土汽車製造商的競爭也加強了。BMW was, until recently, accustomed to large double-digit sales growth in China, but in June its China sales were flat year-on-year while in May sales declined by 4 per cent year-on-year — the first decline in China for a decade. In the first six months of this year BMW’s China sales increased 2.5 per cent.
在中國，寶馬已習慣於兩位數的銷售增長，但今年6月，其在中國的銷售與去年同期持平，而5月份的銷售則同比下降4%——這是10年來寶馬在中國市場的銷售首次下降。今年上半年，寶馬在華銷量僅增長了2.5%。Dealers have therefore been obliged to offer discounts to defend their market share, which has forced BMW to pay rebates to local sales representatives.
因此，經銷商們不得不提供折扣、以保住自己的市場份額，這迫使寶馬向當地銷售代表支付回扣。BMW has long forecast a “normalisation” of the Chinese car market and concedes it has been spoiled in the past by high growth rates there.
長期以來，寶馬一直預測中國汽車市場將“趨向正常”，並承認自己已被此前在中國享受的高增長率寵壞了。The carmaker forecast in March that sales growth in China in 2015 would moderate to a single-digit percentage compared with 16.5 per cent last year.
寶馬在3月預測，2015年其在中國的銷量增長將降至個位數，而去年這個數字是16.5%。The Brilliance warning did not come as a big surprise: analysts had already moderated their expectations for China income at BMW this year following a first-quarter fall in equity income from the Brilliance joint venture.
華晨中國的預警並不讓人大跌眼鏡：第一季度來自華晨寶馬的股權收益出現下降後，分析師已下調了對寶馬今年在華收入的預期。Nor have BMW’s China problems been reflected at all of Germany’s carmakers. Porsche’s Chinese sales rose 71 per cent year-on-year in June. Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz boasted a 38.5 per cent sales increase in China in June compared with a year ago, after it overcame issues at its distributors and thanks to its young line-up of models.
並非所有德國汽車製造商都遭遇了寶馬在中國遇到的難題。6月份，保時捷(Porsche)在華銷量同比增長71%。克服了分銷商問題後，梅賽德斯-奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)的新車型陣容使其6月份在華銷量同比增長了38.5%。In a recent note Arndt Ellinghorst, analyst at Evercore ISI, said: “Whilst sales momentum [in China] has been cooling off since middle of last year, this is still a market that offers growth and serves as a considerable earnings pillar for western [carmakers]”.
Evercore ISI分析師阿恩特•埃林霍斯特(Arndt Ellinghorst)在最近的一份報告中表示：“儘管去年中期以來（中國市場的）銷售勢頭一直在減弱，中國依然是一個提供增長的市場，是西方（汽車製造商）的一大盈利支柱。”
