實際利率飆升傷害中國經濟
Not only is this anomalous in a world where about $2tn in global bonds are trading at negative yields, it is also inflicting disproportionate punishment on the weakest parts of corporate China as the economy slows.
在全球約2萬億美元債券的收益率爲負之際，上述現象實屬反常。不僅如此，隨着中國經濟增長放緩，它還對該國實力最弱的企業構成了相對而言過於沉重的拖累。The real lending rate (the weighted average lending rate plus producer price deflation) rose to 10.8 per cent in March, its highest level since September 2009, according to a research note from Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong (see chart).
香港瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)發表的一份研究報告顯示，中國的實際貸款利率（加權平均貸款利率加上生產者價格通縮）在今年3月升至10.8%，爲2009年9月以來的最高水平。
The main impact of the higher real rates is to pile further pressure on industrial enterprises that are suffering declining profits while contending with a welter of debt service charges. In the first quarter of the year, industrial profits fell 2.7 per cent to Rmb1.25tn ($200bn), after rising 3.3 per cent during the whole of 2014 to Rmb6.47tn, according to official statistics.
實際利率上升的主要影響是，對利潤不斷下滑且被大量償債支出搞得焦頭爛額的工業企業構成進一步壓力。官方統計數據顯示，今年第一季度，工業企業利潤下降2.7%，至1.25萬億元人民幣（合2000億美元），而2014年全年利潤增長了3.3%，至6.47萬億元人民幣。In nominal terms, China’s weighted average lending rate was 6.56 per cent in the first quarter, meaning that companies will have to pay about $812bn in debt service charges this year on non-financial corporate debt estimated by McKinsey to have totalled $12.5tn — or 125 per cent of GDP — at the end of last year.
今年一季度，中國名義加權平均貸款利率爲6.56%，這意味着企業今年得支付大約8120億美元的非金融企業債債息——據麥肯錫(McKinsey)估計，去年底中國非金融企業債總額爲12.5萬億美元，相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的125%。But if calculated in real terms, the debt service charge on non-financial corporate debt would come to $1.35tn this year. To put that number into context, it is not only significantly more than China’s projected total industrial profits this year but also slightly bigger than the size of a large emerging economy such as Mexico.
但如果按實際利率計算，今年要償還的非金融企業債債息將達1.35萬億美元。看下這個數字到底有多大：它不僅遠遠大於今年中國工業利潤總額的預期值，而且還略大於墨西哥等大型新興經濟體的產出規模。Such is the sand in the gears of China’s growth engine. Many companies are paying out more in debt service charges than they are taking in profits as deflation depresses the prices of the products that they produce. Since September last year, deflation measured by the producer price index (PPI) has deepened from minus 1.29 per cent to minus 4.24 per cent in March this year, far outstripping the 90 basis points in interest rate cuts over the same period.
這種償債負擔是中國增長引擎齒輪裏的沙子。許多企業要償還的債務利息比它們的利潤還多，因爲通縮壓低了它們產品的價格。今年3月，以工業品出廠價格指數(PPI)變化量衡量的通縮水平，已從去年9月的-1.29%擴大至-4.24%，變動幅度遠超同期的降息幅度——後者爲90個基點。What’s more, the PPI’s descent shows no sign of abating, registering a fall of 4.6 per cent in April to push real lending rates higher.
此外，PPI的下降毫無放緩的跡象，今年4月又下降了4.6%，進一步推高了實際貸款利率。The burden of surging real interest payments falls unevenly on corporate China, penalising most harshly those companies that gorged themselves on debt in the aftermath of the financial crisis and are now suffering from overcapacity and softening demand.
實際利率飆升對中國不同企業的拖累是不一樣的，受影響最大的是那些在金融危機後大幅舉債、現在正遭受產能過剩和需求下滑困擾的企業。Heavy industrial companies beset by overcapacity and a collapse in pricing power — such as iron ore mines, steel mills and some real estate developers — are in genuine distress. Shi Zhenglei, iron ore analyst at consultancy Mysteel, estimates that about half of China’s 1,500 iron ore mines will be forced to close this year.
受產能過剩和定價能力驟降困擾的重工業企業——如鐵礦、鋼廠和部分房地產開發商——處於真正的困難期。諮詢公司“我的鋼鐵網”(MySteel)鐵礦石分析師史正磊估計，中國1500家鐵礦企業中約一半今年將被迫關停。In the three industrialised northeastern provinces of Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin, the debt burden was a big factor behind a 32 per cent year-on-year decline in industrial profits in the first quarter of the year, compared with a 0.1 per cent fall in other regions. This, in turn, has triggered an 18.7 per cent tumble in manufacturing investment in the northeast during the first quarter.
遼寧、黑龍江和吉林這三個中國東北工業大省第一季度工業利潤同比下降32%（中國其他地區只下降了0.1%），債務負擔是這背後的一個重要因素。利潤下降反過來導致中國東北第一季度製造業投資驟降18.7%。Andy Rothman, strategist at Matthews Asia, a fund management company, sees two debt “hotspots” — state-owned enterprises and real estate developers. By far the most indebted sector is real estate and construction, with a debt to asset ratio of more than 250 per cent, while state-owned enterprises are significantly more leveraged on average than their private counterparts (see chart).
基金管理公司銘基亞洲(Matthews Asia)策略師羅福萬(Andy Rothman)認爲有兩個債務“熱點”，即國有企業和房地產開發商。債務負擔遙遙領先的行業是房地產與建築業，資產負債率超過了250%，而國企的平均槓桿要比民營企業高得多There are some compensations, though. The lower leverage ratios of private companies present a relatively encouraging sign, said Mr Rothman, because privately owned small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than 80 per cent of China’s employment and almost all of its job creation, as well as most of its investment.
不過，也有一些好消息。羅福萬稱，民企較低的槓桿是一個相對令人鼓舞的現象，因爲民營中小企業吸納了中國逾80%的就業人口，創造了中國幾乎所有的新增就業以及大部分投資。Mr Rothman added: “The medicine for this problem will be another round of serious state-owned enterprise reform — including closing the least efficient, dirtiest and most indebted state firms in sectors such as steel and cement . . . leaving healthier, private firms room to grow.”
羅福萬還表示：“解決這個問題的處方是實施新一輪嚴肅的國企改革，包括關停鋼鐵、水泥等行業中效率最低、污染最重以及負債最多的國企……把增長空間留給更加健康的民企。”But before that time comes, gathering deflationary pressures and rising real interest rates are expected to inflict a good deal more pain upon the most vulnerable strata in China’s economy — property and construction companies, state-owned enterprises and the old industrial heartland of the northeast.
但在那一刻到來之前，不斷加大的通縮壓力以及日益升高的實際利率預計還將給中國經濟最脆弱的部分——房地產和建築企業、國企及東北老工業中心——帶來許多痛苦。
