中國擬允許地方債被用作抵押品

China’s central bank is considering extraordinary measures to boost credit flows to heavily indebted local governments, according to local media reports, as Beijing struggles to recapitalise the provinces after years of unsustainable borrowing and investment.

據中國媒體報道，中國央行正考慮採取非常措施提振流向負債累累的地方政府的信貸。經過多年不可持續的借款和投資後，北京方面正艱難地對地方政府進行資本重組。

The country’s local debt has surged since the 2008 financial crisis as regional governments borrowed to finance infrastructure projects in an effort to stimulate the economy. Experts have warned that the debt poses a risk to the banking system.

2008年全球金融危機爆發後，隨着地方政府借款投入基建項目以求刺激經濟，中國的地方債務出現飆升。專家警告稱，這些債務現在對銀行體系構成風險。

China’s economy is growing at its slowest pace in six years, according to official figures. Policy makers want to enable local governments to maintain infrastructure spending to cushion the impact from a slowdown in the property and manufacturing sectors.

官方數據顯示，中國經濟正以6年來最慢的速度增長。政策制定者希望讓地方政府能夠維持基礎設施支出，以緩衝房地產和製造業放緩帶來的衝擊。

Some investors and media outlets have interpreted the bank’s plan to try to raise demand for cash-strapped local governments’ debt — by accepting it as collateral for loans to commercial lenders — as a form of quantitative easing.

中國央行計劃允許商業銀行以地方政府置換債換取央行資金，以此來加大市場對地方政府債務的需求。一些投資者和媒體對此舉的解讀是，這是量化寬鬆政策的一種形式。

But economists say it is better understood as a targeted measure to boost credit flows to local governments struggling to refinance Rmb1.9tn ($306bn) in debt due to mature this year.

但經濟學家表示，更好的理解是，此舉是一種有針對性的措施，目的是加大流向地方政府的信貸。資金拮据的地方政府正爲今年將要到期的1.9萬億元人民幣（合3060億美元）債務艱難安排再融資。

“From the details we know it’s probably wrong to characterise this as quantitative easing. It’s tempting to think that China would join everybody else, but the reality is that the Chinese central bank seems to be concerned about banks’ reluctance to buy local government bonds,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist for HSBC.

“從細節看，我們知道將此舉描述爲量化寬鬆很可能是錯誤的。認爲中國央行會加入其他主要央行行列的想法很誘人，但現實情況是，中國央行似乎擔憂的是商業銀行不願購買地方政府債券，”匯豐(HSBC)首席亞洲經濟學家範力民(Frederic Neumann)表示。

China’s finance ministry last month announced a plan for provincial governments to refinance Rmb1tn in maturing debt by selling bonds. The goal is to lower debt-servicing costs and extend maturities by converting short-term, high-interest bank loans to low-interest, long-term municipal bonds.

中國財政部上月宣佈計劃，擬讓省級政府通過出售債券來爲即將到期的1萬億元人民幣債務安排再融資。其目標是降低償債成本，並通過將短期、高息的銀行貸款置換爲低息、長期的市政債券來延長到期期限。

But this month at least two Chinese provinces had to postpone bond auctions due to insufficient demand from commercial banks. Allowing local bonds to be used as collateral would stoke demand for the paper.

但本月至少有兩個中國省份不得不推遲債券拍賣，原因是商業銀行的需求不足。允許地方債券被用作抵押品，將刺激對這些債券的需求。

Loans from China’s central bank to commercial banks would expand the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet, increasing the base money supply.

中國央行向商業銀行提供貸款，將擴大中國央行的資產負債表，從而增加基礎貨幣供應。

But economists expect that increases in the money supply via the new PBoC lending facility would probably be offset by withdrawals via other tools such as reduced foreign exchange purchases, open market operations and the required reserve ratio.

但經濟學家預計，中國央行新的放貸工具所增加的貨幣供應，很可能將被通過其他工具（如減少外匯購買、公開市場操作和存款準備金率）抽走的流動性所抵消。

“This isn’t really about adding liquidity. It’s aimed at alleviating debt pressures on local governments and reducing financial risks,” said Zhang Bin, director of the global macroeconomy research department at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank that advises Beijing. The moves led to sharp falls in money market interest rates, which determine short-term borrowing costs for companies and banks.

“此舉的意義不是真的要增加流動性。它的目的是減輕地方政府的債務壓力，化解金融風險，”向中國政府提供諮詢的智庫——中國社會科學院(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)的全球宏觀經濟研究室主任張斌表示。中國央行的政策已導致貨幣市場利率大幅下降，這些利率決定着企業和銀行的短期借款成本。