中美兩國應避免兩敗俱傷

When China’s economic output eventually surpasses America’s some time in the next decade, it will be the first time since the reign of George III that the world’s largest economy belongs to a country that is not western, not English-speaking and not a liberal democratic state. Yet, in the asymmetric world that is emerging, the US will remain the dominant military force. The fulcrums of economic and military power are separating. Can these changes in the distribution of power occur peacefully?

在下一個十年，當中國的經濟產量最終超越美國的那一天，將是自英王喬治三世(George III)統治時期以來，首次出現世界最大經濟體的桂冠歸屬於一個非西方、非以英語爲母語、且非自由民主制的國家。不過，在即將出現的不均衡世界中，美國將仍是主導性的軍事力量。經濟實力與軍事力量的支點正逐漸分開。權力分配的改變能否和平地實現？

It will be difficult. In Beijing’s eyes, the US is deeply opposed to China’s rise. A document circulated among the Communist party leadership last year summed up the consensus view. American strategy towards China, it said, had five objectives: to isolate the country, contain it, diminish it, divide it and sabotage its political leadership.

這將頗爲困難。在北京方面看來，美國極力反對中國崛起。去年在共產黨領導層內傳閱的一份文件總結出了這點共識。文件稱，美國對華策略有5個目標：孤立中國、遏制中國、削弱中國、分裂中國並破壞其政治領導。

These conclusions sound strange to a western audience. They reflect the conviction of Communist party leaders that the US has not, and never will, accept the political legitimacy of the administration in Beijing because it is not a liberal democracy. They also reflect the Chinese view that the US will never willingly cede its status as the pre-eminent power in Asia and the world.

在西方民衆聽來，這些結論很奇怪。它們反映出共產黨領導人確信一點：美國尚未、也永遠不會接受北京當局的政治合法性，因爲它並非自由民主制。這些結論還反映出中國人的看法，即美國永遠也不願意放棄其在亞洲乃至世界的超級大國地位。

For America, rising China is no longer business as usual. Instead, the US sees a rival that is growing in strength and competing for political, diplomatic and security policy space in Asia. On this view, Beijing’s long-term policy is aimed at pushing the US out of Asia altogether and establishing a Chinese sphere of influence spanning the region.

對美國來說，崛起的中國今非昔比。相反，美國把中國視爲一個實力不斷增加、正與美國爭奪在亞洲的政治、外交及安全政策空間的競爭對手。據此看來，北京方面的長期政策旨在將美國完全逐出亞洲，並打造一個覆蓋整個地區的中國勢力圈。