人民幣何時告別升值"單行道"

For those frustrated by slow progress towards freeing up China’s tightly controlled currency, recent days provide an illustration of why authorities are determined to proceed with caution.

對於那些認爲中國放鬆匯率嚴格管制進程緩慢令人失望的人來說，最近幾天的情形說明了中國當局爲何堅決謹慎推進這一進程。

Emerging market currencies hit a 14-year low against the dollar this week, hit by concerns about rising debt and slowing exports in emerging markets.

受到對新興市場債務上升和出口放緩擔憂的影響，新興市場貨幣兌美元匯率本週創下14年來的低點。

Yet amid the turmoil the renminbi has been a relative bastion of stability. Even as the currency hit its weakest level against the dollar in four months on Tuesday at Rmb6.21, it was only a modest 1.6 per cent weaker than the seven-month high touched on October 31. By contrast, the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 5 per cent over the same period.

然而，在一片震盪之中，人民幣一直巋然不動，保持着相對的穩定。即使人民幣兌美元匯率上週二觸及6.21，創下4個月以來的最弱水平，這也只比10月31日觸及的7個月來的最高點下跌僅1.6%。相比之下，同期摩根大通新興市場貨幣指數(JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index)下跌了5%。

“The jump in USD-RMB in the last two days is sharp by the currency’s own standards,” Wang Ju, forex strategist at HSBC, wrote on Tuesday. “However, given the movements in the rest of Asia, this partially represents a catch up with the likes of the Malaysian ringgit and the Korean won.”

“按人民幣自身的標準來看，過去兩天美元兌人民幣匯率的突升是劇烈的，”匯豐(HSBC)資深外匯策略師王菊週二寫道。“不過，考慮到亞洲其他地區貨幣的波動情況，這部分地反映了人民幣在追趕馬來西亞林吉特和韓元等貨幣的腳步。”

Top Communist party leaders pledged in a landmark blueprint for economic reform last November to give market forces a “decisive role” in resource allocation. The plan contained an explicit reference to the exchange rate.

在去年11月發佈的具有里程碑意義的經濟改革藍圖中，共產黨最高領導層承諾要讓市場力量在資源配置中起“決定性作用”。該計劃明確提到了匯率。

Yet despite such pledges, China’s management of its currency in recent days makes clear that authorities remain far from willing to fully deregulate the exchange rate or allow speculators free rein to send waves of capital sloshing in and out.

然而，儘管做出了這樣的承諾，近日來中國對人民幣匯率的管理明顯表現出，當局仍遠非願意完全解除匯率管制或讓投機者自由地操縱資本大量進出。

That means China is not about to witness the type of exchange rate moves common among its emerging market peers. Indeed, the memory of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when China’s neighbours experienced uncontrolled capital flight and massive currency devaluation, remains fresh in the minds of senior policy makers.

這意味着在其他新興市場常見的匯率波動情形不會在中國上演。事實上，1997年亞洲金融危機時，中國的鄰國遭遇資本外逃失控和貨幣大規模貶值的情形，仍鮮活地留在中國高層決策者的腦海中。

The People’s Bank of China’s stabilising influence on the exchange rate is clear from the deployment of its daily fixing in recent days to restrain the renminbi’s decline.

中國央行對穩定匯率發揮的影響明顯表現爲，其近日每天設定的匯率中間價都旨在抑制人民幣下跌。

The central parity rate, which signals the central bank’s intention for the exchange rate, is a midpoint from which the spot rate is permitted to fluctuate by 2 per cent above or below.

體現央行希望匯率處於何種水平的匯率中間價是一箇中間點，即期匯率被允許在這一點上下2%的幅度內浮動。

For most of the period since China’s landmark depegging of its currency in 2005, the renminbi’s spot rate consistently traded stronger than the midpoint, a sign that the fixing was acting as a check on market pressure pushing the renminbi higher.

2005年人民幣與美元標誌性脫鉤之後的大部分時間裏，人民幣即期匯率一直高於中間價成交，表明中間價的設定扮演了平衡推動人民幣升值的市場壓力的角色。

But this pattern reversed late last month, after China slashed benchmark interest rates in an attempt to boost its economy, which is on course for its slowest full-year growth since 1990. The rate cut also coincided with an acceleration of the fall in other emerging market currencies that began in July.

但是，上個月底中國爲了刺激經濟而下調基準利率後，上述這種模式開始逆轉。中國經濟今年全年增速預計將是自1990年以來最低的。自7月開始，其他新興市場貨幣匯率開始下跌，中國此次降息也恰逢這些貨幣開始加速貶值。

Even as the spot rate weakened, the central bank set a series of progressively stronger midpoints, widening the gap between spot and fixing. While some viewed this divergence as a tug of war between the central bank and the market, the PBoC’s move was an effort more to moderate the renminbi’s fall than to actively pull it stronger.

即便在即期匯率走軟之際，中國央行仍然接二連三地逐步上調中間價，擴大了即期匯率與中間價之間的差價。儘管一些人將這種差價視爲央行和市場之間的拉鋸戰，但中國央行此舉更多地是爲了減緩人民幣的下跌，而非積極推動其上漲。

“There are often times when the spot rate will depreciate, but the midpoint doesn’t follow the market downward. This indicates the central bank is sending a signal of stability to the market,” said Xie Yaxuan, economist at China Merchants Securities.

中國招商證券(China Merchants Securities)的經濟學家謝亞軒表示：“往往會出現即期匯率下跌，但中間價並未跟隨市場向下走的情況。這表明央行在向市場傳達穩定的信號。”

The PBoC has probably also intervened in the market directly. Forex traders said they saw concerted renminbi buying by big state banks on Tuesday afternoon, following a big drop in the renminbi that morning.

中國央行也可能對市場進行了直接干預。外匯交易員們表示，週二上午人民幣匯率大幅下挫，當天下午，他們看到大型國有銀行集體買入了人民幣。

Such action typically signals the central bank’s presence in the market.

此類舉措通常是央行的身影出現在市場上的信號。

While few expect rapid devaluation in the near term, many investors are starting to question the conventional wisdom that the Chinese currency is a one-way bet to appreciate.

儘管很少有人預計人民幣會在近期快速貶值，但許多投資者開始質疑認爲人民幣只會單向升值的傳統觀點。

Entrenched appreciation expectations are easy to understand. Apart from 2009, following the PBoC’s temporary return to a dollar peg during the height of the financial crisis, the renminbi has risen against the US currency every year since 2005. In a period when dollar, euro and yen interest rates were all near zero, higher yields available on renminbi assets added to the lure of the currency.

不難理解根深蒂固的人民幣升值預期。除了在2009年、金融危機最危急時分，中國央行臨時恢復人民幣盯住美元匯率以外，人民幣兌美元匯率自2005年以來每年都在升值。眼下美元、歐元和日元利率全都接近爲零，人民幣資產的較高收益率增加了人民幣的吸引力。

Now, however, some investors believe a new era of renminbi depreciation may be at hand, especially with the prospect of rate rises by the Federal Reserve next year. The renminbi is now down 2.1 per cent year-to-date in 2014.

然而，現在一些投資者相信，人民幣貶值的新時代可能即將來臨，尤其是在美聯儲(Fed)明年可能加息的前景下。2014年迄今，人民幣匯率已累計下跌2.1%。

Chris Morrison, portfolio manager of Omni Macro, a London-based hedge fund with $650m under management, estimates that China’s currency has appreciated by 45 per cent in inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted terms over the past five years. Omni took short positions in the offshore renminbi (CNH) market starting in January.

Omni Macro的投資組合經理克里斯•莫里森(Chris Morrison)估計，經通脹因素調整後的人民幣貿易加權匯率在過去5年已累計上升45%。Omni Macro是一家總部位於倫敦的對衝基金，旗下管理着6.5億美元資產。該公司從今年1月開始在離岸人民幣市場建立了空頭倉位。

“When you have an expensive currency that’s heavily owned for reasons of carry and then the economy slows and the central bank cuts rates, that’s a recipe for currency depreciation,” says Mr Morrison.

莫里森表示：“當一種匯率較高的貨幣之前因套息原因被大量持有，而接下來經濟放緩，央行降息時，這種貨幣就該貶值了。”

While many have assumed that China’s large trade surpluses inoculate the renminbi against depreciation, Mr Morrison points to the euro today and the Swiss franc in 2011 as cases where a currency depreciates despite current account inflows.

儘管許多人認爲，中國的鉅額貿易順差將會防止人民幣貶值，但莫里森以如今的歐元和2011年的瑞士法郎爲例說明，儘管經常賬戶是順差，貨幣也是會貶值的。

“Your macroeconomic policy objectives have got to be coherent with your FX policy. You cannot be in a situation where you want to ease policy and also have exchange rate appreciation. Those things don’t make sense together,” he said.

他表示：“你的宏觀經濟政策目標必須與外匯政策目標保持一致。你不可能既想要寬鬆政策，又讓匯率升值。把這兩樣東西組合在一起是沒道理的。”