歐元區全面量寬機率上升
Hopes that the European Central Bank will resort to a full-scale programme of government bond purchases rose yesterday after a poor take-up of cheap ECB cash sparked fresh doubts about policy makers’ efforts to stave off stagnation.
外界對於歐洲央行(ECB)將實施大規模國債購買計劃的期待昨日上升。歐洲央行的廉價資金拍賣沒有引發熱烈反應，再度引發各方對於政策制定者遏止經濟停滯努力的疑慮。
The bank injected 129.8bn into the eurozone’s banking system through another offer of four-year loans, but the figure missed all but the most modest of market expectations.
歐洲央行又一次提供四年期貸款，向歐元區銀行體系注入1298億歐元，但這一數字少於幾乎所有市場預期。The ECB plans to swell its balance sheet by 1tn to a level last seen in 2012, as part of efforts to lift inflation and boost growth in the eurozone. Prices rose by 0.3 per cent in the year to November, raising fears that the region could be heading for a prolonged period of Japan-style stagnation.
歐洲央行計劃讓其資產負債表擴充1萬億歐元，達到2012年以來最高水平，作爲提升歐元區通脹和促進經濟增長的努力的一部分。在截至11月的一年裏，物價僅上漲0.3%，引發了有關歐元區可能陷入日本式長期停滯的擔憂。
Those concerns were underscored yesterday when France posted a 0.2 per cent fall in retail prices between October and November, a bigger decline than economists had forecast.
這些擔憂昨日加劇，法國數據顯示，從10月到11月零售價格下降0.2%，跌幅大於經濟學家們的預測。But the ECB is split over whether to embark on full-blown quantitative easing as a way to achieve its goals. Such a policy is strongly opposed by Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and other hawkish members of the bank’s governing council.
但在要不要訴諸全面量化寬鬆政策以實現目標的問題上，歐洲央行內部意見分歧。德國央行(Bundesbank)行長延斯•魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)以及歐洲央行管理委員會的其他鷹派成員強烈反對這樣的政策。They believe that the central bank’s existing measures, which include buying covered bonds and asset-backed securities, and auctioning cheap cash to eurozone lenders, will be enough to raise inflation to the ECB’s target of below, but close to, 2 per cent. Analysts think that the disappointing take-up of the auction has weakened their hand. Nick Matthews, economist at Nomura, said: “The result reduces the strength of the ECB hawks’ argument that existing policy measures are enough.”
他們認爲，央行的現有措施，包括購買資產擔保債券和資產支持證券，以及面向歐元區銀行拍賣廉價資金，將足以使通脹提升至歐洲央行的目標，即低於但接近2%。分析師們認爲，令人失望的資金拍賣削弱了他們的論據。野村證券(Nomura)經濟學家尼克•馬修斯(Nick Matthews)表示：“這個結果削弱了歐洲央行鷹派人士的論點的說服力，他們認爲現有政策措施的力度夠了。”Meanwhile, fresh evidence emerged of the diverging fortunes of the US and eurozone economies. US retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in November, the most in eight months, in a sign that faster jobs growth and the rapid drop in petrol prices were boosting consumption.
與此同時，新的證據表明，美國和歐元區的經濟走勢進一步分化。美國11月零售銷售上升0.7%，增幅是八個月來最大的，這個跡象表明，就業增長加快和汽油價格快速下跌正在刺激消費。The strong numbers will further increase the US Federal Reserve’s confidence in the growth outlook for 2015 and make an interest rate rise by the summer more likely.
強勁的數據將進一步增強美聯儲對2015年增長前景的信心，並提高了夏天加息的機率。The probability of full-blown QE in the eurozone increased this month when the ECB changed its language to say it “intended” rather than “expected” to ramp up its balance sheet to 3tn. Yesterday’s auction suggested it would struggle to do so without further action, especially as banks are expected to have to repay hundreds of billions of euros in outstanding ECB loans in the coming months.
本月以來，歐元區出臺全面量化寬鬆政策的機率上升，原因是歐洲央行改變了措辭，稱其“打算”（而非“預期”）讓資產負債表膨脹至3萬億歐元。昨日資金拍賣情況表明，若不採取進一步行動，它將難以做到這一點，尤其是鑑於各銀行在未來幾個月需要償還數千億歐元的歐洲央行貸款。“The bottom line is that this should help shift the policy debate to policies fixed on stimulating demand,” said Huw van Steenis of Morgan Stanley. “We think the measures the ECB has announced so far will fall short . . . by 400bn and 600bn.”
“歸根結底，這應當有助於推動政策辯論轉向專注於刺激需求的政策，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的休•範斯蒂尼斯(Huw van Steenis)表示。“我們認爲，歐洲央行迄今宣佈的措施將低於目標……4000億至6000億歐元。”Additional reporting by Robin Harding in Washington
羅賓•哈丁(Robin Harding)華盛頓補充報道
