各組織應該警惕亞洲私人部門債務飆升
August can be a perilous month for investors. It is a month when there is little volume or liquidity in financial markets and this August appears to be an especially treacherous one.
8月對投資者而言可能是一個危險的月份。8月的金融市場交易量或流動性非常低，今年的8月看起來尤其兇險。Among the most vulnerable – perhaps surprisingly – are emerging Asian markets, where aggregate private sector debt has been building up. That is because the combination of high leverage and lack of liquidity is not a happy one when investors are feeling nervous.
有些人也許想不到，亞洲新興市場（那裏的私人部門總債務一直在攀升）現在屬於最脆弱的市場。原因在於，在投資者正感到緊張之際，高槓杆和流動性匱乏的組合可不是一個令人樂觀的組合。This summer, the markets have been hit by a bout of fear from a combination of the prospect of a world with less easy money and more dangerous gunmen. Since their July peaks, emerging market debt and currencies have weakened.
今年夏季，市場受到一波恐慌情緒的衝擊，原因是人們擔心世界上的寬鬆貨幣可能會減少，而危險的投機者有所增多。自7月份見頂以來，新興市場債市和匯率已經走低。
Today, as investors shift away from their quest for yield, and outflows from US junk bond funds last week reached a record $11.4bn, it seems timely to ask how badly the emerging markets of Asia will be affected and how much they should be affected.
如今，隨着投資者逐漸停止對收益的追逐，美國垃圾債基金的贖回額上上週達到創紀錄的114億美元，似乎是時候問問亞洲新興市場即將以及應該會受到多麼嚴重的影響了。While leverage levels have dropped in developed markets since the financial crisis, they have gone the other way across the Pacific. The total stock of debt has more than doubled to $21tn in emerging Asia in the past five years, JPMorgan notes. Asian debt is back to levels last seen during the region’s financial crisis of 1997, according to data from Gavekal Dragonomics, a research boutique.
自本次金融危機以來，發達市場的槓桿水平有所下降，但太平洋對岸的情形正好相反。摩根大通(JPMorgan)指出，過去5年亞洲新興市場債務總存量增加了一倍多，至21萬億美元。研究機構龍洲經訊(GaveKal Dragonomics)的數據顯示，亞洲債務規模回到了1997年亞洲金融危機期間的水平。
Heavy burden
沉重負擔Debt levels matter because they have an influence on future growth and the more expensive the debt, the heavier the burden on borrowers.
債務水平事關緊要，因爲它會影響未來的經濟增長，而且債務成本越高，借款人的負擔就越重。Since 2009, the region has been among the most fortunate in the world as its high growth rate attracted disproportionate capital flows from outside. Most of that debt came from domestic borrowing, though, with just $2.5tn of the total in foreign borrowing.
2009年以來，由於亞洲的高增長率吸引了數量多得離譜的外部資本流入，該地區一直是全球最幸運的地區之一。不過，亞洲大多數債務是內債，外債總額僅爲2.5萬億美元。In addition, much of Asia still generates current account surpluses, which have led, in turn, to large foreign exchange reserves. These considerations have led many analysts to conclude that Asia is far less exposed today than it was 17 years ago.
此外，亞洲很多國家仍有經常賬戶盈餘，這又導致了高額的外匯儲備。考慮到這些因素，很多分析師斷定，亞洲今日的風險敞口遠低於17年前。But the optimistic analysis focuses on the sovereign. The chances of a systemic crisis are more remote than in 1997, but that is not to say corporate Asia is immune. Many Asian companies have been huge beneficiaries of the inflows set in train by the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policies.
但是，這一樂觀分析關注的是主權債務。發生一場系統性危機的可能性確實小於1997年，不過，這並不是說亞洲企業不會受到影響。美聯儲(Fed)零利率政策導致大量資金流入亞洲，許多亞洲企業從中受益匪淺。Now, though, a benign period for Asia seems to be drawing to an end. Exports have been growing at a slower rate for many countries in the region. US companies are spending less not only on plant and equipment but also on technology, which hurts a region that has thrived by providing both corporations and consumers with their technology tools.
不過，亞洲的好日子如今似乎快走到頭了。許多亞洲國家的出口增長一直在減速。美國企業不但在廠房與設備、而且在技術上減少開支，這對亞洲構成了傷害。亞洲通過向美國企業和消費者供應技術工具取得了蓬勃發展。“Emerging Asia’s foreign liabilities are now higher as a share of exports than any time in the last 10 years,” notes Jahangir Aziz, a Washington-based economist for JPMorgan, adding that as a result there is “increased potential for currency mismatch in the private sector. Corporates are directly exposed to FX shocks.”
摩根大通(JP Morgan)駐華盛頓經濟學家賈漢吉爾•阿齊茲(Jahangir Aziz)指出：“如今，亞洲新興市場的外債與出口之比高於以往10年的任何時候。”他補充道，其結果是，“私人部門出現貨幣錯配的可能性加大了。企業直接曝險於外匯衝擊。”Bond dependence
債券依賴Moreover, while as a percentage of total borrowing, foreign borrowing is smaller than in the past, the absolute amounts – and the dependence of some companies on the US bond market – is growing. Almost half the borrowers are Chinese, mostly property and industrial groups. Another 10 per cent are Indonesian.
另外，儘管外債佔總債務的比例低於過去，但外債的絕對額在增加，有些企業也越來越依賴美國債券市場。近半數借款者是中國企業，主要是房地產和工業集團。另有10%的借款者爲印尼企業。JPMorgan’s Asian credit index, which includes both high grade and high yield debt, stands at $500bn, three times higher than in 2005.
摩根大通亞洲信貸指數（既包含高評級又包含高收益債券）所涵蓋的債券總市值目前爲5000億美元，是2005年的3倍。For the first half of this year issuance was $96bn, while for the whole of last year, $120bn was raised. And while less than 20 per cent of that is high yield, it is worth remembering that critical inflection points often reflect incremental changes. If the US high yield market suffers, the Asian US dollar high yield market is likely to register the impact.
今年上半年，亞洲企業發債960億美元，而去年全年發債1200億美元。儘管高收益債券比例不足20%，但不能忘記的是，關鍵拐點往往是漸進式變化的反映。如果美國高收益債券市場形勢不好，亞洲美元高收益債券市場很可能會受到衝擊。Of the 51 defaults in the market since 2000, 17 were Chinese borrowers and 23 were Indonesian. Today Chinese and Indonesian companies may be especially vulnerable in the face of skittish investors.
2000年以來亞洲美元高收益債券市場發生了51起違約，中國借款企業佔17起，印尼借款企業佔23起。如今，面對易受驚嚇的投資者，中國和印尼企業可能尤其容易受到衝擊。All these potential clouds over credit markets come at a time when the Chinese stock markets have rallied. Chinese equities have been the single best performing asset class in the past month, (up 4.4 per cent) with inflows at their highest level since December 2012. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index dropped 4 per cent from its highs over the past two weeks.
信貸市場被這些潛在的烏雲籠罩之際，中國股市出現了反彈。中國股票在過去1個月裏成爲表現最佳的資產類別（上漲了4.4%），股市資金流入達到2012年12月以來的最高水平。與此同時，標普500指數(S&P 500)過去兩週裏從高點下滑4%。It was especially easy to make the bull case for China on both macro and micro levels last week. Exports hit record levels while growth is back at its desired 7.5 per cent level. Many analysts think state-owned enterprise reform is real.
從近日的宏觀和微觀層面來看，很容易得出中國股市牛市來臨的結論。出口達到創紀錄水平，經濟增長率回到7.5%這一中國希望達到的水平。許多分析師認爲，國企改革是動了真格的。Hopefully the debt market will not spook the stock market any time soon.
希望債券市場不會很快令股票市場受到驚嚇。
