新興市場勢頭不穩 遭遇發展陣痛
When the money keeps rolling out you don’t keep books,
當大把的錢不斷流出，你可不會把賬本留着，You can tell you’ve done well by the happy grateful looks.
人們快樂而感激的表情，讓你知道你做得不錯。Evita, lyrics by Tim Rice
《艾薇塔》(Evita)，蒂姆•賴斯(Tim Rice)作詞
Argentina has been here before. So have many other emerging markets. For the second time in six months, money is rolling out. Emerging currencies are under acute pressure, as are bonds and equities.
阿根廷如今上演的一幕似曾相識。許多其他新興市場也是如此。6個月來，資金第二次涌出阿根廷。像債市及股市一樣，新興市場貨幣也正面臨嚴峻壓力。But the important point about crises in emerging markets is that they do not start there. Instead, they are almost invariably triggered by the actions of investors or central banks in the developed world.
然而，對於新興市場危機來說，重要之處在於危機並非始自新興市場自身。相反，危機幾乎無一例外地由發達國家投資者或央行引發。Emerging markets have made strides during the past two decades. With a few exceptions, they have let their exchange rates float, built the institutions needed for free-market capitalism, and developed local debt markets to cut reliance on foreign funds.
過去20年裏，新興市場取得了長足進步。除了少數例外，新興市場國家放開了匯率，設立了自由市場資本主義所需的制度，並建立了完善的地方債市場，以減少對外資的依賴。But certain truths remain. Flows of foreign capital still dwarf local money. While that money keeps rolling in, the temptation is to behave like a latter-day Eva Peron; and when that money rolls out, there can be problems.
然而，某些事實依然沒有改變。外資的流入仍令本國資金相形見絀。當資金持續流入時，人們很容易像伊娃•貝隆(Eva Peron)那樣予以抵制。然而當資金流出時，就可能出現問題。Look at a historical precursor: the wave of emerging markets crises in the late 1990s that started with Mexico’s “tequila crisis”. It started in 1994 when the government gave up defending its peso at an overvalued level.
這個問題有個前車之鑑——上世紀90年代末那輪始於墨西哥“龍舌蘭酒危機(tequila crisis)”的新興市場危機。這一危機始於1994年，當時墨西哥政府不再將維持比索匯率的過高估值。Mexico had been spending beyond its means. But the trigger for crisis came from the US, where the Federal Reserve that year raised rates sharply to head off inflation. That brought money home and revealed Mexican problems.
在那以前，墨西哥確實一直入不敷出。然而危機卻發端於美國。1994年，美聯儲(Fed)爲消除通脹大幅加息。這導致資金迴流美國，從而暴露了墨西哥的問題。Last week’s events fit the 1990s template, only now China has emerged as the world’s second economic superpower. Events there, as well as in the US, can send money scurrying for cover.
上週發生的事情也是上世紀90年代危機的翻版，只是這次中國已成了世界第二經濟大國。發生在中美兩國的事情，共同導致資本迅速轉移，尋求庇護。Argentina is a special case. Its debt was downgraded late last year, to reflect concern at the new economic team of the president, Cristina Fernández, so many institutions are barred from investing in it. It is no longer even considered an “emerging” market by MSCI, the guardians of the term for equity markets, so many equity investors cannot buy Argentina.
阿根廷是個特例。去年，出於對阿根廷總統克里斯蒂娜•費爾南德斯(Cristina Fernández)新經濟團隊的擔心，阿根廷國債被調降評級，這導致許多機構都被禁止投資阿根廷國債。“新興市場”指數編纂者——摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)甚至不再把阿根廷視爲“新興”市場，這令許多股權投資者無法買入阿根廷股票。There is little reason why Argentina should affect others, beyond its neighbours.
也就是說，幾乎沒什麼理由能證明阿根廷會影響除鄰國外的其他國家。Rather, the exit from emerging markets has been driven by renewed concern about the Fed. Talk that it would taper off its bond purchases, which kept US rates low and encouraged money to go overseas, last summer led to a sell-off in emerging markets.
相反，此次資金逃出新興市場的行爲是新一輪對美聯儲的擔憂推動的。美聯儲對債券的收購將美國利率保持在低點，並鼓勵資金流向海外。而去年夏天，有關美聯儲會逐步縮減這一收購力度的說法，曾導致新興市場出現一輪拋售行爲。When the Fed finally tapered, in December, it muted the effects with forward guidance that in effect promised that rates could not start to rise until 2015 at the very earliest. Last week’s sell-off of emerging currencies came as traders worried that such “forward guidance” could not be trusted.
當美聯儲12月份終於開始逐步退出量寬時，該機構用“前瞻性指引”(forward guidance)壓制了以上後果。從效果上來說，這個“前瞻性指引”等於是承諾至少到2015年前都不會加息。然而,上週新興市場貨幣還是遭到了拋售，這是由於交易者擔心不能相信這種“前瞻性指引”。The fate of the forward guidance offered in August last year by Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, demonstrates the problem. He promised not to raise rates at least until unemployment dropped to 7 per cent; it has since fallen faster than expected, to 7.1 per cent; and so Mr Carney last week downplayed the importance of his guidance.
英國央行(BoE)行長馬克•卡尼(Mark Carney)去年8月曾提出的“前瞻性指引”就反映了這個問題。當時他承諾在失業率降至7%以下之前不會提升利率。但自那以後，失業率的下降卻比預期要快，降至7.1%。於是，卡尼上週淡化了其前瞻性指引的重要性。The message for traders: central banks can always retreat from guidance if they have to.
這向投資者傳遞了一個信息：只要有必要，央行總是會收回前瞻性指引。Then there is China. HSBC’s flash estimate of the ISM supply managers’ index last week suggested the economy was shrinking. Further, money market rates in China are spiking upwards, in a crude attempt by the authorities to bring credit under some control. And China faces a test case over whether it will allow defaults by trust loans, a form of shadow banking.
還有一個問題是中國。匯豐銀行(HSBC)上週對供應管理協會(Institute for Supply Management, ISM)採購經理人指數(PMI)的初步預測暗示，中國經濟正在收縮。更嚴重的問題是，由於中國當局試圖粗暴地控制信貸，中國貨幣市場利率開始飆升。此外，中國還面臨一個考驗：是否會允許信託貸款（影子銀行的一種形式）出現違約。Faced with such concerns, US and western money headed home and into Treasury bonds, which are now yielding almost exactly what they were when the Fed announced its taper in December.
在這類擔憂情緒的影響下，美國和西方資金出現迴流，流向美國國債。如今，美國國債收益率幾乎與12月份美聯儲宣佈縮減量化寬鬆時的水平完全相同。Sentiment towards emerging markets tends to move in long waves. As the chart shows, developed markets have beaten emerging markets during the past 20 years, a period that starts on the eve of the tequila crisis – even though emerging markets have grown far faster.
對新興市場的偏好變化的週期往往很長。正如圖表所示，過去20年裏（這20年的開頭正處於龍舌蘭酒危機發生前夜），MSCI發達市場指數的表現始終強於新興市場——儘管新興市場的增長要快得多。Such waves of sentiment are hard to stop. This one could easily last longer.
這種市場情緒的波動很難停下來。而這一次市場情緒的波動很可能會持續更長時間。Emerging markets funds have suffered persistent outflows for more than three months, according to EPFR data, without what BofA Merrill Lynch calls true “capitulation”. That would mean outflows of more than $20bn per week; the latest week saw an outflow of $2.4bn.
據新興投資組合基金研究公司(EPFR)的數據，新興市場資金遭遇的外流潮已持續了逾3個月，卻沒有出現美銀美林(BofA Merrill Lynch)所稱的“投降式拋售(capitulation)”。這意味着每週外流資金的規模超過了200億美元。最近一週，外流資金的規模爲24億美元。As for currencies, fair value measures kept by Deutsche Bank’s Alan Ruskin suggest that none has yet overshot, and that Brazil’s real is close to its 10-year average, after accounting for inflation.
至於匯率，德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)艾倫•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)所做的公允價值評估表明，目前所有新興市場貨幣的匯率都不算離譜。比如，巴西雷亞爾的匯率在扣除通脹因素後就接近其十年平均值。In the long run, the well-rehearsed arguments for emerging markets remain good. They are likely to grow faster than the west, and do not look expensive. Those with a long-term horizon might well start dribbling money into emerging markets.
長期來說，人們耳熟能詳的有關新興市場的說法依然沒錯。新興市場的增長速度很可能比西方快，資產價格似乎也不高。有長遠眼光的人最好是開始將資金逐漸轉入新興市場。But the risks remain high that emerging markets assets will soon be cheaper still. That will depend largely on the Fed, and on China.
不過，新興市場資產不久後進一步貶值的風險依然很高。這在很大程度上要看美聯儲和中國採取如何動作。
