爲什麼人們傾向於仇恨樂觀主義者

It's time to stop wallowing in pessimismabout the world's future.
不要再悲觀於世界未來了。

Over the past four weeks, we’ve had a runof undeniably good news. A panoply of data has shown that the U.S. economicsystem appears to be on firm ground. More people have jobs, albeit notnecessarily sterling jobs, and the pace of overall activity as measured by GDPis at the highest level in two years, expanding at 4.1 percentannually. On the political front, Congress passed a budget for the first timein more than three years, which suggests a period ahead where Washingtontantrums do not threaten to upend whatever delicate equilibrium currentlyexists.
在過去四周時間裏，確實發生了很多好新聞。華麗麗的數據表明美國經濟正變得穩健。更多人找到工作，雖然這些工作並非都是非常好的工作，總體的GDP是兩年來最好的，每年都增加4.1%。在政治領域，國會三年多來首次通過了預算案，表明在未來一段時期內，不管華盛頓政界風雲如何變化，都不可能威脅到目前的大好局勢。

And yet, an aura of unease still seems tohover over us. In the year or more that I have written this column, I haveoften emphasized the way in which things may be going at least a bit contrasts with the frequently repeated mantra that we are goingdangerously off the rails. Of course, like anyone, I may be right or wrong orsomewhere in between. What’s been perplexing about responses to this column,however, isn’t whether the analysis is right or wrong, wise or naïve, but thatthe very hint of optimism makes a fair number of people extremely angry.
然而，一種不安氣氛依舊籠罩着我們。在我寫專欄文章的這一年多來，我一直都強調事情正在好轉。與此形成相反的是，坊間還是流傳着大量的悲觀咒語，說我們正在一步步危險的脫離正軌。當然，像任何人一樣，我的看法有對的，也有不對的，或者介於兩者之間。然而在看了人們對我文章的回覆後，令人費解的他們所關心的並非我所寫的東西是對是錯、明智的還是天真的，而是對文章中的樂觀情緒表現出極度的憤怒。

It may be, of course, that my optimism ismisplaced. It may be that the United States is actually headed to hell in aproverbial handbasket; that Europe is in a brief lull before its next legtoward dissolution of the Union; that Japan’s easy money spigot unleashed bythe new government of Shinzo Abe will end with the same no-exit stagnation ofthe past 20 years; and the glorious story of emerging economies from Brazil toMexico to India to China will end not so gloriously. It may also be thatwhatever appears to be working in the developed world is in truth working onlyfor a small minority—for the wealthy and members of the middle class inprivileged urban areas, and for anyone tethered to financial markets and globalcommerce.
當然，也有可能是我的樂觀情緒放錯位了。或許美國越來越沒得救了；歐盟也存在解體的風險；而日本如今的寬鬆貨幣政策或許將導致另外一個衰退的20年；而新興國家比如巴西、墨西哥、印度和中國的經濟神話或許不會有燦爛的結局。還有就是不管發達國家如何發展，其最終受益者都是那些都市裏的特權中產階級，或者是金融市場和全球貿易裏的商人。

But possibly being wrong doesn’t explainthe anger my columns have provoked, in the form of email and online her forecasters and sports experts are routinely wrong about outcomes, andwhile those missed predictions can trigger some ridicule, they’re not usually arecipe for rage.
雖然我的樂觀情緒可能是不對的，但是這並不能解釋爲何我的文章會引發這麼多的憤怒，有些人發郵件給我表達他們的憤怒，有的直接在網上回復。天氣預報和體育專家也有不準確的時候，雖然二者的錯誤預測可能會引發人們的嘲弄，但並不經常引起人們的巨大憤怒。

True, the online world of comments andcommentary skews towards the negative, especially in the realm of economics andpolitics. People are more likely to express feelings based on disagreement anda sense of outrage than they are to react based on concord. Anger is a hotexperience that triggers action; agreement, even strong agreement, tends to bea more passive reaction.
是的，網民們的評論和觀點都傾向於消極，特別是在經濟和政治議題上。人們更傾向於表達自己的異議和憤怒，而不是讚許。憤怒才能起激發人們行動；而讚許，甚至是強烈的讚許，只是一種更加消極和被動的反應。

But why does optimism about today’s worldgenerate such strong hostility? Perhaps because it contradicts what many peoplebelieve. Positive views on the present are seen as a slap in the face by peoplewho have negative experiences, which, according to some polls, is the majorityof Americans. Surveys suggest that more Americans than ever—66 percent,according to one poll—believe that the country is headed in the wrongdirection. Other polls say much the same thing. Two years ago the numberswere even worse. Americans of the past few years are less positive about thefuture than they have been at any point since the 1970s.
爲什麼對如今世界的樂觀情緒會激發如此強烈的敵意呢？或者這是因爲這與人們的信念相違背了。對那些經歷過消極經驗的人來說，對現狀的樂觀情緒就好像是一巴掌拍在他們臉上，而根據一些調查結果顯示，大多數美國人都有過消極經驗。調查結果表明比以往任何時候都多的美國人——根據一項調查的結果，是66%——認爲美國正在朝錯誤的方向前進。其他民調結果也表明了這一點。而在兩年前，這個數據更加糟糕。最近幾年的美國人比70年代以來大部分時間裏的美國人都更加消極悲觀。

Interestingly, according to these surveys,blacks and Hispanics in the United States are more positive about the futurethan whites, perhaps reflecting the degree to which white males have seen theirfortunes decline on a relative basis over the past decades, while Hispanicsespecially have seen significant improvement in incomes andeducation. That said, it is difficult to know the race and gender breakdown ofonline reactions to my political and economic analysis.
好玩的是，根據這些研究的說法，美國的西班牙人和黑人比白人對未來更加積極樂觀，這或許反映了過去幾十年來白人財富在相對縮水，而西班牙人在收入和教育上有了長足的進步。即便如此，在對我的經濟和政治性文章做出回覆的人中，我們也不知道這些人是由哪種性別和種族構成的。The problem is that in a country of 300million people, let alone a world of 7 billion, any statement about an economicor societal trend is likely to differ from the actual experience of a greatmany people. While there may be upsides to the changing mechanisms of oureconomic system, there are unequivocally winners and losers and many shadesbetween. Any suggestion that the struggles of one group may be juxtaposedagainst, though not offset by, the flourishing of another group can seemdisrespectful and even indifferent to the challenges faced by many people.
問題是，在一個3億人口的國家中，更別提全世界的70億了，任何對經濟和社會趨勢所進行的預測都很可能與很多人的實際經驗存在反差。雖然經濟系統的改變存在好的一面，但是肯定有輸家和贏家，還有介於這兩者之間的人。一些人的富有與另一些人的貧窮盡管沒法抵消，但是可以並行存在，持這種看法的人會被人認爲是不敬的和冷漠的。

The answer, however, is not to focusrelentlessly on what isn’t working. Every society must find some balancebetween addressing real shortcomings and building on real strengths. The UnitedStates in particular oscillates between excessive self-congratulation (“theindispensable nation,” “the freest nation on Earth”) and extremeself-criticism. We can be making a transition from a manufacturing economy toan idea economy that sees millions finding a new way, and millions can be educating millions brilliantly while failing to educate millions atall. We can see thriving urban centers even as suburban sprawl melts under toomuch debt and overpriced homes.
然而，問題的答案並不在於總是關注不好的一面。任何一個社會都得在解決實際缺陷和建立實際優勢之間取得平衡。尤其是美國，在過度的沾沾自喜（“不可或缺的國家，”“世界上最自由的國家“）和極端自我批評之間搖擺不定。我們可以做出轉變，把美國從一個製造業經濟轉變成理念經濟，從而使有些人找到了新的生活方式，而另外一些人遭受痛苦。我們可以對一些人進行成功的教育，而使另外一些人在教育上失敗。我們可以建立起繁榮的都市中心，而與此同時，郊區負債累累、房價高昂。

Optimism, as the theoretical physicistDavid Deutsch so brilliantly describes in The Beginnings of Infinity,doesn’t mean surety about good future outcomes. Optimism is simply thecertainty that any human progress to date has been a product of our collectiveability to understand how things work and to craft solutions. The convictionthat the present is a prelude to a bad future negates that collective , we may indeed be at the end of the line, but by angrily dismissingoptimistic arguments we are likely to fail more rapidly. Why bother strivingfor constructive change if you firmly reject the possibility? That leaves onlyone viable alternative: to envision a path forward. That path may notmaterialize, but striving to find it is a vital component of creating thefuture we dream about, and not the one that we fear.
正如理論物理學家DavidDeutsch在《無限的開端》中所生動描述的，樂觀主義並不是對未來美好結果的保證。樂觀主義是對我們人類迄今爲止所取得的成就是我們集體思考和能力的產物的觀念的肯定。而如果你消極悲觀的話，那麼你就是在否定這種集體智慧和能力。是的，或許我們已經到達了極限，但是如果我們以憤怒的態度來拒絕樂觀的言論，那麼我們可能會失敗得更快。如果你對未來完全沒有信心，那進行結構性的改變又有什麼意義？所以我們只有一個選擇：想象出一條前進的道路。這條道路或許無法實現，但是隻有努力探索我們纔可能創造出我們想要的未來，而不是我們害怕的未來。