比特幣泡沫會不會破裂 各路英雄紛上賭桌大綱

Can you bet on the likely eventual bitcoin crash?
你敢對賭比特幣泡沫終將破裂嗎？

You bet. But it's an expensive trade. And even if you're right, you won't walk away with much, if anything.
當然。但這將是一筆代價高昂的交易。而如果最終泡沫破裂，即使投資者能從中獲益，利潤也不會太高。

The traditional way you bet against something is to "short it." But in order to do a short sale you have to borrow a share of stock or bond or whatever you are looking to bet against. And borrowing bitcoins is nearly impossible. There is a company based in Hong Kong in testing phase that seems to offer bitcoin shorting, but I couldn't find out much about it.
對賭的傳統方式是“做空”。要想進行賣空交易，就必須先借入你要對賭的股票或債券或其他任何東西。而借入比特幣幾乎是不可能的。據稱香港一家公司正在測試提供比特幣做空交易，但筆者並未找到太多這方面的信息。

What you can buy is a derivative contract that will rise in value when bitcoins fall in price. There are a number of places that sell options and futures on bitcoins.
投資者可以購買衍生工具合約，等到比特幣價格下跌時，合約價值就會上漲。目前，有許多機構推出了比特幣期權和期貨產品。

One place -- ICBIT, a bitcoin exchange -- is run by a guy in Moscow.
其中一家機構是莫斯科的比特幣交易所ICBIT。

MPEx, a stock exchange for companies with shares traded in bitcoins -- there are four of them -- also lists bitcoin options.
比特幣股權交易所MPEx也推出了比特幣期權。這家交易所爲以比特幣交易股份的公司提供股權交易服務，目前共有四家這樣的公司。

BitInstant, a Brooklyn-based payment processor, is planning on launching a bitcoin futures exchange early next year.
布魯克林交易處理商BitInstant正計劃在明年年初成立一家比特幣期權交易所。

All of these places require that you open an account to start trading, and none of them take dollars. So you have to buy some bitcoins elsewhere, which in itself is no easy task, and transfer them to your ICBIT or MPEx account before you can get started.
這些機構均要求開立賬戶後才能進行交易，而且都不接受美元。所以，你首先必須從其他地方購買比特幣，然後將其轉入ICBIT或MPEx的賬戶後才能開始交易。而購買比特幣本身就有很大難度。

MPEx charges 30 bitcoins to open an account, which at Wednesday's closing price was $33, 000.
在MPEx開設賬戶要收費30個比特幣，按照週三的收市價格，這相當於33,000美元。

I heard good things about ICBIT, which offered accounts for free but charges a commission when you trade. But to see the prices of the contracts, you had to get your account up and running and deposit a minimum of 0.1 bitcoins. (You can buy bitcoins in fractions.)
好消息是，ICBIT可以免費提供賬戶，但要收取交易佣金。而要想查看合約價格，投資者必須啓動賬戶，並存入最低0.1個比特幣。（比特幣可以分割到小數購買。）

I decided to check out Coinbr, a brokerage firm that allows you to trade options on MPEx without opening an account there. You still have to deposit 0.1 bitcoin in a Coinbr account to get started. But MPEx allows anyone to see the prices of its contracts, so you know what you are getting into before you start.
我決定從經紀公司Coinbr展開調查。這家公司允許投資者在MPEx上交易期權，無需在MPEx開立賬戶。不過，如果要開始交易，仍需在Coinbr的賬戶中存入至少0.1個比特幣。好在MPEx允許任何人查看合約價格，所以在開始操作之前，你能比較清楚地瞭解情況。

Here we go: If you are betting against bitcoins, what you want to do is buy a put option, which is a derivative contract that allows you to sell something at a set price. If the actual price of the thing falls below the set price, or strike price, you make money.
首先：既然投資者計劃做空比特幣，自然要買入看跌期權。所謂看跌期權是指允許投資者以預定價格賣出投資品的衍生工具合約。如果該投資品的實際價格下跌至預定價格或執行價格以下，則投資者能夠獲利。

You could also sell a call option, the right to buy at a set price, but that is riskier and requires collateral. So I stuck to looking at put contracts.
投資者也可以賣出看漲期權（以預定價格購買的權利），但這種操作的風險更高，而且需要抵押。因此，筆者還是堅持看跌期權。

It cost 0.045 of a bitcoin, or $49.50, to buy a put contract to sell 1/10 of a bitcoin at a strike price of $1,100 per bitcoin. The contract expires at the end of the month and will expire worthless if the price of a bitcoin is above $1100 at that point. But the value of the contract will go up before then as long as the value of a bitcoin drops.
以比特幣單價1,100美元的執行價格出售十分之一個比特幣的看跌合約，每一份合約的成本爲0.045個比特幣或49.50美元。合約於月底期滿，如果期滿時比特幣的價格超過1,100美元，則各個合約便毫無價值可言。但如果比特幣價格下跌，則合約價值將上漲。

Let's supposed bitcoins were to fall to $500 by the end of December, a 55% plunge in less than a month.
假設截止12月底，比特幣價格已經下跌到500美元，即在不到一個月時間內暴跌55%。

If that were to happen, the price of my bitcoin put contract would jump.
此時，比特幣看跌合約的價格將上漲。

Here's the problem: To book my profit, I ultimately want dollars.
可問題在於：要實現利潤，我最終希望拿到的是美元。

With normal currency options you can choose to collect in whatever currency you are using to bet against another currency. So if you are betting the price of a euro will fall against a dollar, you can collect in dollars when the contract settles, thereby offsetting the fact that the euro just dropped in value.
在正常的貨幣期權交易時，投資者可以將做空其他貨幣所使用的貨幣作爲結算貨幣。所以，如果用美元來做空歐元，則在合約結算時可以使用美元，進而抵消歐元價值下跌這一事實。

You can't currently do that with bitcoins. All of the bitcoin options and futures contracts are settled in bitcoins. This is a very bad deal. Because even if I end up with a bitcoin windfall, they will be worth a lot less when I convert them back into dollars.
但目前在比特幣期權中卻無法如此操作。所有比特幣期權和期貨合約均以比特幣進行結算。這是非常不划算的交易。原因在於，即使投資者最終從比特幣期權中獲益，最終兌換成美元的價值仍要大打折扣。Here's the math:
以下是計算過程：

To open an account, it has to be funded with 0.1 bitcoin, which will cost $110 as of Thursday morning.
開立賬戶必須提供0.1個比特幣，按週四上午的價格約合110美元。

The put option costs 0.045 bitcoins, leaving 0.055 bitcoins still in the account.
看跌期權的成本爲0.045個比特幣，賬戶中剩餘0.055個比特幣。

After our imagined 55% plunge, the value of the put contract has soared to 0.12 bitcoins.
按照我們上面的假設，比特幣價格暴跌55%之後，看跌合約的價值將上漲到0.12個比特幣。加上賬戶中剩餘的金額，目前共有0.175個比特幣。

At a bitcoin price of $500, that's a mere $87.50.
而按500美元的單價將比特幣兌換成美元，僅有87.50美元。

That means even if you are right, and you call the top of the bitcoin bubble, correctly predicting a whopping 55% plunge in the value of the currency and do all of this, you would lose $22.50.
這意味着，即便投資者的決策正確，預測了比特幣泡沫的極限，也準確估算出比特幣價格暴跌跌55%的事實，可最終依然要損失22.50美元。

You can get around this by upping your bet against bitcoins. If instead you buy two contracts, for $99, and once again the price plunges 60%, you will end up making a whopping $15. And I haven't factored in fees, which would probably run you about $4 for the whole transaction, including the dollar-to-bitcoin round trip, taking your profit down to $11.
投資者也可以通過加大做空投入來減少損失。如果投資者以99美元買入兩筆合約，而比特幣價格還是下跌60%，最終投資者可以獲利15美元。這其中尚未考慮手續費，整筆交易的手續費約爲4美元，包括美元與比特幣的兌換費用，此時利潤將降至11美元。

On top of all that, this isn't like trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Midday Wednesday, MPEx appeared to shut down, and the prices of the contracts disappeared. I was told this happens a lot. As of early Thursday, the exchange still wasn't listing prices. What's more, after running through my math of the trade with a Coinbr broker in a chat room, with the conclusion that there basically the trade doesn't make sense, he offered to sell me contracts at 0.033 bitcoins, so I could buy three contracts instead of two with my 0.1 bitcoins. That led me to question just how real the prices MPEx was quoting were.
此外，比特幣期權交易並不像在紐交所（New York Stock Exchange）進行的交易那樣。週三中午，MPEx關閉交易，合約的價格不知所蹤。據稱這種情況經常發生。截止週四早些時候，該交易所仍未公佈價格。而且，我與Coinbr的經紀人在會議室計算了相關交易數據，最終我得出的結論是，這種交易毫無意義，於是他主動提出將合約按0.033個比特幣的價格出售給我，這樣一來，0.1個比特幣便可以購買三份合約，而不是兩份。這讓我不由得質疑，MPEx所報的價格到底有幾分可信。

All of this may explain one reason why the price of bitcoins until recently has been heading straight up. Why bother betting against it?
這或許也解釋了爲何近期比特幣的價格會一路暴漲。既然如此，爲什麼還要費心去做空它呢？